Morphettville Racing Tips for Saturday, May 20th

Fri, 19/05/2017 - 12:53pm, tim_tips

Morphettville hosts another Group 1 meeting this weekend with the running of the Darley GoodwoodThe track is currently rated a Good 4 but there is a few millimeters of rain predicted before Saturday so we could see that end up in the Soft range without being too wet.

We have betting tips and comments for every race below!

Morphetville Racing Tips - Saturday, May 20th

Race 1

Tough race to open the card with a field of 20 set to go around. I'm with the favourite SO YOU TOO here but I think she's short enough at $2.50 (which is comfortably the best price around). She's placed in all four starts this prep but her run in this from barrier 13 won't be as easy as she's had recently. Having said that, the form out of her past two races is strong, with last start being in Group 2 company and the start prior being behind undefeated Desert Lashes. Lindop needs to get the ride right here, if she does So You Too probably wins. Keep an eye on the market with IDATWO. He was backed from $101 to $31 last start and came from last to win. Probably needs to do the same from barrier 14 here but that win was good and he can measure up here at double figure odds again. If MISS BENEDETTA gains a run (currently first emergency) she will start shorter than $21 on offer currently. CHASE THE HORIZON has a horror draw and top weight but has the ability to win this.

Tip: So You Too

 

Race 2

Really competitive two-year-old race this with a number of chances. BOOKER was impressive on debut and the money has come early for her but at the price I'll be looking elsewhere. Lindsay Park are the kings of the two-year-olds and I liked the win of PURE SCOT last start. The form out of her first up race behind Speed Street and Je Suis Tycoon is pretty solid, and at $6.50 I'd rather be backing her. I do think there's a bit of value in the race with the likes of IT'S A MYTH and MINTHA who both finished behind INDIAN THUNDER last start. They were both hitting the line hard and the step up to 1200m should suit. Narrowly with Mintha as the value due to the good barrier draw and the bigger price.

Tip: Pure Scot / Mintha EW

 

Race 3

Hard to be against HIGH CHURCH here after bolting in to win the Warrnambool Cup by 6 lengths. The Weir/Lane combination is lethal and he deserves to be a short priced favourite. Having said that, I do think there's one at great odds in the race and that's SUPER HAZE. This horse's first two runs this prep were both good over the mile, and last start he never got a crack at them after being held up the entire straight.Last prep he won over 2400m and was then beaten less than a length over 2800m in a decent race at Flemington. He'll be ready to really show something here and $13 is a great price. WAGING WAR the other at good odds worth including.

Tip: High Church / Super Haze EW

 

Race 4

Only two I'm interested in here and we can back both. ANA ROYALE charged home in the Oaks last start behind two very smart fillies in Egg Tart and Kenedna. She didn't have any luck at all and the way she finished off the race suggests the 2500m will really suit her. I think she's a great price at $3. MISS STRATHALLAN will be the big improver and is the clear value in the race. Completely forget she went around last start on the heavy track and instead look back to two starts ago when finishing 2nd over 2400m at Flemington. She finished off really nice and actually beat Parthesia home by a length, and Parthesia is a $6.50 chance here while Miss Strathallan is $13. She's back against her own age and sex here, will love the distance and will relish the firm ground. Big chance.

Tip: Ana Royale / Miss Strathallan EW (Best Value)

ladbrokes odds boost

 

Race 5

With the Weir/Lane combination here with TICK TICK BLOOM who showed just how much ability she had last start at Warrnambool when getting back to her best. She comes into this third up where she has won twice from three starts, and steps up to the 2000m where she's undefeated from two starts. Gets back to her own sex here after beating the boys last start, and the wide draw isn't so much of an issue since she gets back anyway. Trusting Damian Lane will get it right once again. Happy to take the $4.20, with the only tiny query being the tendency of Weir horses to sometimes lose a leg when they travel to Adelaide after a good win in Melbourne.SORT AFTER will be the one to run down from out front, while EXOCET will be competitive if she brings her best form. MISS DUBOIS one to watch at $26 coming from the back of the field.

Tip: Tick Tick Bloom

 

Race 6

Going to take on BURNING FRONT at the $2.50 quote today. The last time he raced in Adelaide - three starts ago - he nearly got beaten as the $1.60 favourite and there's just a couple of others that I prefer here. I think HOOKED rates a big chance here on the back of his last start win in Group 3 company. From the barrier I expect them to sit right on the tail of Burning Front and that could give him the edge at the business end of the race. My concern with Hooked is his record at 1600m (one win, one place from 10 starts) but he seems to be going as well as he ever has and he'll get every possible chance here. $3.80 looks a decent price and he'll start closer to $3 I think. The horse I'll be backing though is RHYTHM TO SPARE who looks to have returned in terrific order this prep. First up he was held up the entire straight over 1400m in the Group 3 race Hooked won, and last start he absolutely bolted in over 1600m in a BM90, beating a pretty handy horse in Fastnet Latina. He won that race by over 3 lengths, and drops 3kg with the step up in grade here. From barrier 2 he'll sit 3rd or 4th similar to Hooked and I quite like his chances at $6. 

Tip: Rhythm To Spare

 

Race 7

Nice edition of the Group 1 The Goodwood here with a maximum field of 20 lining up and there's a few I like. BLACK HEART BART won this race last year but notably, the last horse to win this race with his kind of weight was Takeover Target in 2009. Under set weights and penalties, 59kg does look a big ask but in saying that, he is a five time Group 1 winner who has finished in the top two from seven of his eight starts at this distance. Draws fairly well and no surprise to see him win this. At the price, however, I'll be taking him on. I was very keen to back MALAGUERRA at the price but the 59kg must also be a big concern for him too. From all reports this horse was absolutely flying leading into the TJ Smith last start but he just didn't handle the heavy track. The last time we saw him on a firm track over 1200m fresh from a spell he absolutely bolted in and beat Black Heart Bart by 2 lengths. I think we'll see him much improved here but the weight is the big query. SECRET AGENDA won the Group 1 UBET Classic last start and did it in good style too. My concern with her was the firm track but she put that to bed and if any rain falls before the race her chances will only be enhanced. Draws to be very competitive once again here. But the horse I'll be backing and following throughout his prep is VEGA MAGIC who makes his stable debut for Lindsay Park. This former WA horse has some serious ability and while he may still be better over 1400m, he looks well suited to run a big race on Saturday. Draws well, had a brilliant trial leading into this, has tremendous stats at the distance and carries a similar weight to that of the last five winners of this race. Really excited to see him run and happy to back him at $7. LUCKY LIBERTY the blowout at $26.

Tip: Vega Magic / Malaguerra EW

 

Race 8

Best bet of the day here for me with FUHRYK. We were on her first up at $7 when she absolutely steamed home to finish 2nd by a nose, despite being luckless at crucial times. She's won her only start when second up, which was last prep at the Valley when winning by nearly 3 lengths. Has a terrific record at the distance and I really think this girl has big things ahead of her. Happy to take the $3.70 on offer despite the wide draw. Biggest danger probably RAVI with the good draw, while I expect to see big improvement out of both MISS GUNPOWDER and TELOPEA.

Tip: Fuhryk (Best Bet)

 

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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

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