2013 Brownlow Medal - Preview and Tips
As is the case every year, there has been plenty of excitement and speculation around the 2013 Brownlow medal. As Monday, September 23rd draws closer, heavy favourite Gary Ablett has been drifting ever-so slightly as players like Sam Mitchell have been backed in from being a real roughie to becoming one of the top few chances.
Over the last couple of weeks we have done dozens of hours of research and come up with what we think are some possible outcomes for the 2013 Brownlow medal. We have taken into account game statistics and media voting to determine our potential polling ranges.
Our polling ranges show what we think to be the lowest possible polling for each player and what we deem the highest polling potential – of course players will then possibly poll somewhere within that range. The way this was done was that in games where a player is a slight chance to poll 1 vote, we gave them 0.5 – then when determining totals, we added up their votes as both zeros and as 1s. Likewise, if two players both have the potential to poll 3 votes in a game, we gave them 2.5 and then added up their total as 2s (lowest possible) and as 3s (highest possible).
We will first go through our 2013 Brownlow top 15, before looking to find some real value in some of the group betting, head-to-head markets and most team vote markets.
In the top 15, the placings have been determined by the highest polling potential, but obviously it is not often that a player will poll three votes when you expect. Therefore take note in instances where there is a large range, the voting is certainly more speculative.
2013 Brownlow Preview – Top 15
|
Rank
|
Player
|
Potential Vote Range
|
|
1
|
Joel Selwood
|
29 - 23
|
|
2
|
Scott Pendlebury
|
27 - 20
|
|
3
|
Dane Swan
|
27 - 19
|
|
4
|
Gary Ablett
|
26 - 21
|
|
5
|
Kieren Jack
|
24 - 15
|
|
6
|
Michael Barlow
|
23 - 16
|
|
7
|
Luke Hodge
|
21 - 16
|
|
8
|
Sam Mitchell
|
21 - 15
|
|
9
|
Jarryd Roughead
|
21 - 14
|
|
10
|
Steve Johnson
|
21 - 14
|
|
11
|
Daniel Hannebery
|
19 - 16
|
|
12
|
Travis Boak
|
19 - 13
|
|
13
|
Nathan Fyfe
|
18 - 12
|
|
14
|
Trent Cotchin
|
18 - 12
|
|
15
|
Jobe Watson
|
18 - 11
|
2013 Brownlow Medal- best bets based on Top 15
Winner:
Joel Selwood - Best odds: $6 at Betfair
Top Five:
Scott Pendlebury – Best Odds: $1.70 at Betfair
Dane Swan – Best Odds: $1.71 at Betfair
Kieren Jack – Best Odds: $4.50 at Sportsbet
2013 Brownlow Medal – value betting tips
We have also taken a look around all the best Australian sportsbooks to find what we feel are some of the value in head-to-head, group and team betting markets. Check out all those tips below and always bet responsibly! Don't forget that if you don't have an account at any of the betting agencies that tickle your fancy, check out all the links at the bottom of this article for all the best sign-up bonuses and free bets!
*** = high confidence
** = mid confidence
* = lowest confidence / value bet
Head-to-Head:
Rory Sloane ($1.65)*** vs. Hamish Hartlett at Centrebet
Kieren Jack ($1.57)*** vs. Steve Johnson at Bet365
Kieren Jack ($1.57)*** vs. Trent Cotchin at Centrebet
Daniel Hannebery ($1.55)*** vs. Dustin Martin at Centrebet
Pearce Hanley ($1.45)*** vs. Bryce Gibbs at Centrebet
Kieren Jack ($2.05)** vs. Nathan Fyfe at Bet365
Luke Hodge ($2.10)** vs. Travis Boak at Bet365
Nathan Fyfe ($1.80)** vs. Ryan Griffin at Bet365
Nathan Fyfe ($1.75)** vs. Patrick Dangerfield at Sportsbet
Matt Priddis ($2.00)** vs. T. Rockliff at Centrebet
Brent Harvey ($1.65)** vs. Marc Murphy at Centrebet
Jack Steven ($1.60)** vs. Ryan O’Keefe at Centrebet
Group Betting:
Luke Hodge ($1.45)*** – ‘Number One Draft Picks’ at Sportsbet
Kieren Jack ($4.00)** – ‘Group A’ at Bet365
Sam Mayes ($3.25)* – ‘Rookies’ at Sportsbet
Lindsey Thomas ($10)* – ‘Small Forwards’ at Sportsbet
Michael Walters ($5.50)* – ‘Inked’ at Sportsbet
Luke Hodge ($5.00)* – ‘Group B’ at Bet365
Matt Priddis ($5.00)* – ‘Group C’ at Bet365
David Mundy ($5.50)* – ‘Group D’ at Bet365
Most Player votes in Team:
Carlton: Brock McLean ($3.00)** - Bet365
Richmond: Trent Cotchin ($1.60)** - Centrebet
St Kilda: Leigh Montagna ($1.70)** - Centrebet
Brisbane: Pearce Hanley ($5.00)* - Bet365
Nth Melbourne: Brent Harvey ($2.10)** + Jack Ziebell ($15.00)* at Sportsbet
Fremantle: Michael Barlow ($3.25)** - Sportsbet
Other Bets:
Leader After Round 10 – Gary Ablett ($1.55)*** at Betfair
Take note: The above tips are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always bet responsibly. Happy punting!
