Great betting weekend for PuntingInDanger and fans last round as we hit on 5 of 7 bets over the weekend. We will look to back it up in Round 20 which gets underway this Friday night with a blockbuster clash between the Richmond Tigers and Geelong Cats at the MCG from 7.50pm.
We preview the massive game and give our betting tips below.
Geelong captured a good win over Brisbane at home in Round 19 and will need to continue to keep winning to keep their finals chances alive. They currently sit in eight position but are level on 44 points with Melbourne, Hawthorn and Sydney while both North Melbourne and Essendon trail closely on 40 points.
Gary Ablett was back to his best in the win over Brisbane, racking up 38 touches while Tom Hawkins continued his scintillating form, bagging another 7 goals to make it 18 in the last three games. Hawkins was a standout performer in the Cats loss to the Tigers earlier in the season as well, booting three goals and giving Richmond full back Alex Rance some real problems with size and strength.
After a tight game for the first three quarters, the Tigers blew past the Magpies in the final term to win by 28 points at the MCG on Saturday. They now sit pretty on top of the AFL ladder, leading the Eagles by four points and maintaining a very healthy percentage of 137.8.
There is a few injury concerns with the Tigers at the moment, as Dion Prestia will miss Friday’s clash with sore ribs while Bachar Houli, Jack Graham and Reece Conca remain on the sidelines. Not as many issues on the Geelong side, as only Harry Taylor and Esava Ratugolea look set to miss from their best 22.
Unsurprisingly, the last two games between these teams were ‘supposed’ to be Geelong home games, however, they were both played at the MCG. Richmond were victorious in both of those games, but the last time they met in Geelong, the Cats came up 14 point winners.
The Tigers haven’t lost at the MCG since Round 13 last year, and it’s hard to argue with them being $1.40 favourites here at home. They have been absolutely dominant in the last quarters of games all year, so even if the Cats stay with them for the first three quarters like they did in Round 13, the Tigers have another gear in the fourth.
2018 Round 13 – Geelong (9.11.65) lt. Richmond (12.11.83)
2017 Qualifying Final – Geelong (5.10.40) lt. Richmond (13.13.91)
2017 Round 21 – Geelong (11.14.80) dft. Richmond (9.12.66)
2016 Round 21 – Richmond (12.6.78) lt. Geelong (10.22.82)
Really tough game to call here. So much star power on both sides. The Cats in particular seem to have the cattle to get up and win a big game like this. There’s so much pure match winning ability in the likes of Ablett, Dangerfield, Menegola and Hawkins, and its almost a must win to keep their finals chances alive.
The Tigers have looked a touch shaky of late, and it would have been interesting to see the result in last weekend’s game against the Pies if Jeremy Howe hadn’t gone down in the first quarter. I like the value in the Cats here.
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