Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for the final day of the Flemington carnival, Emirates Stakes Day, on Saturday, November 11th.
We’ve had a difficult three days of the carnival so far, and it looks another tough card, but hopefully we can find a few winners to end on a good note. The rail stays in the 3m position for today’s nine-race card. We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
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Best Bet: Race 3 Fastnet Tempest
Best Value: Race 8 Tosem Stardom EW
Very tricky race to start off, with a field of two-year-old’s (several unraced) lining up over the 1000m Flemington straight. The straight races have been particularly difficult races to find winners for so far, with the ‘ideal’ running position varying from day to day. That makes this a very uninspiring race to bet into. BIONICS made a good debut behind Setsuna who has since won again during the carnival. He’s sure to have had a jump out down the straight as he’s trained at the track and the stable is flying this week so it’d be no surprise to see him go one better here. ENCRYPTION was good on debut behind Qalifa, which is a good form line to follow going forward in my opinion. Damian Lane chooses to ride him over the stablemate SANGLIER, though he has also had some early market support. BELZELLA is another trained at the track and will have had a jump out. Tony McEvoy is going very well with his runners in Melbourne and whenever he steps out juveniles on debut they must be respected. The horse that catches my eye is the favourite, KING. Peter and Paul Snowden have had a very quiet carnival so far, but I think it’s telling that they choose to debut this horse here as opposed to Sydney. He comes into this off a winning trial and the stable’s juveniles always go close in these sorts of races. This race could be won by anything and I likely won’t be betting, but KING goes on top.
Unlike most races this carnival which are hard to find the winner for because of the depth of quality, this one is tough to find a winner for because it’s a fairly average field full of horses mixing their form. I’m interested in ONCIDIUM RULER here at $17. He did nothing first up, but he never does. He’s had five starts first up for one placing, but he’s never missed a place second up, so expect sharp improvement. He also gets out to a distance more suitable for him. I would have preferred him over 2400m with another run under his belt, but he could still run a bold race in this field. KOURKAM has had three runs back from a spell now and should be ready to do something. He ran well enough last start in Adelaide and McEvoy will have him peaking. TARQUIN showed something for the first time this prep last start, and he’s got a good record at the distance, but a poor record at the track. HAVE PLENTY finished ahead of Kourkam when they met two starts ago and has since gone close again. SHAMKIYR only managed 3rd in the St Arnaud Cup last start, and he’s never placed at the track, but he has the Weir factor which you can never dismiss. TIGER TIM either wins or is unplaced. He bolted in two starts ago but finished 7th of 9 last start. MEET AND GREET also ran well two starts ago, but finished last in the Bendigo Cup last start. KNOWABLE has finished 2nd at his past two starts but is a massive query over 2000m for mine. As you can see, it’s hard to be confident with anything here so a small each way bet on ONCIDIUM RULER is the way I’ll go.
TIP: Oncidium Ruler EW
This is a race I’m keen to bet into and is probably the best bet of the day. FASTNET TEMPEST is a European horse having his third run in Australia here. He was fair first up at Caulfield before running 2nd in the Sale Cup last start. He’s undefeated third up, gets the blinkers back on here, draws well and gets Kerrin McEvoy on board. Think he’s a very strong chance in this. COLDSTONE should be ready to go close now third up from a spell and maps to get a good run from the barrier. MASTER RESET is another that can show something at each way odds. He was fair first up but unlucky last start and he won third up last preparation. RAW IMPULSE looks to have been set for this and has the Weir/Lane combo, I wouldn’t rule him out but he’s got plenty to make up on Fastnet Tempest from last start.
TIP: Fastnet Tempest (Best Bet)
SUPPLY AND DEMAND has been scratched following his good run on Thursday, which makes this race easier to assess. Keen to be with LITE’N’ IN MY VEINS, who is a former Perth horse that was very good on his Melbourne debut first up. He trialled enormously leading into that and was met with good support, but was held up for the majority of the straight before charging home when finally clear. It was a run that indicated he is back to his best form (he was a Group 2 winner on debut in Perth). He’s won three of his four starts when second up from a spell so he looks a terrific chance today and happy to take $3.20. LORD ASPEN won nicely in Adelaide last start and has a good record at this track and distance. Draws nicely for Kerrin McEvoy and should go close. Two at good odds I’d include are MOHER and MUBAKKIR. Moher has done nothing in two starts back from a spell, but he never does anything first up, and was unlucky last start. He looks to have been set for this and if you can forgive him for last start, he’s worth including at $15. MUBAKKIR is third up from a spell, which generally sees him perform well. He’s got a good record at this track and distance, and has form behind Hellova Street from last preparation (a horse that won a Group 3 on Thursday). BASSETT steps up to 1400m and his best would see him probably win this.
TIP: Lite’n’ In My Veins / Mubakkir EW
Nice little race here and one that’s tough to assess. QEWY and KIWIA both come through the Bendigo Cup, where Qewy got the better of Kiwia by a nose. Kiwia gets a 1kg weight swing here and draws better, but the further they go in trip probably suits Qewy. VENGEUR MASQUE, GALLIC CHIEFTAIN, VIOLATE, GREY LION and WHEAL LEISURE all come through the Geelong Cup. Gallic Chieftain is the one I want to be with from that race, and he gets the blinkers going on for the first time here. I also wouldn’t be ruling out Wheal Leisure at the double figure odds. She looks the value in the race for a stable that’s in great form. I found it very tough to split Kiwia and Qewy, and again found it tough to line up the Bendigo and Geelong Cup formlines. I liked the run of Gallic Chieftain and with the blinkers going on first time here, he goes on top. I’ll be saving on Qewy at the very least as we know how dominant that stable is in Australia, and the extra trip will only help him. Wheal Leisure the value.
TIP: Gallic Chieftain / Wheal Leisure EW
Another race I found incredibly difficult to assess. FALIKA is in career best form, with three straight wins, and she maps to get a beautiful run from barrier 2 here. There is no doubt this is her hardest test to date, but she’s been very impressive in recent starts, and she can measure up here. She is taking on Group 1 quality horses, though, who are at bigger prices in the market, and I’m leaning towards PROMPT RESPONSE. She should have won the Myer Classic last start, sitting three-wide the trip before going down by 0.3L. I would have doubts over her ability at 2000m, especially on the back of a tough run like that, but Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have their Melbourne stable absolutely flying. They’ve had a winner on every single day of the carnival so far, and as a horse that should have won a Group 1 last start, this looks a very winnable race. We’re getting $7.50 and that’s a great each way price. HEAVENS ABOVE was a touch unlucky in the Myer and goes up to 2000m here. She’s a Group 1 winner so her best would win this. FLYING JESS is another that continues to run well and drops back from the Myer here. My concern is that, even though she runs well, she’s never placed in five starts at the track. CONSOMMATEUR can be forgiven for last start and has clearly been set for this 2000m race third up from a spell. She won a Group 2 over 1900m in Sydney at this stage of her preparation last start, so she must be included. PAYROLL ran an eye-catcher last start, and TAHANEE won just a few day ago with the Weir factor again coming into play. Tough race with several chances. Taking $7.50 for Prompt Response and I’d suggest the value lies with Consommateur and Flying Jess.
TIP: Prompt Response EW
Talk of tough races!! This is almost a better field than the Everest and you could make a case for several runners here. VEGA MAGIC should have won the Everest but was disappointing last start at Moonee Valley. They used the excuse of it being his first time under lights, which I’m not buying, but he’s too good to let go around here without having something on. Obviously how he returns after last start, and the fact it’s his first try down the straight, are both queries. REDZEL has done nothing to suggest he won’t go close to winning again. He’ll jump, lead, and take an awful lot of running down. CHAUTAUQUA couldn’t win the Everest based on the way the track was playing, but he should get things to suit here. His run was enormous and he comes into this fourth up from a spell. At this stage last prep he won the TJ Smith, so I’m very wary of him. MALAGUERRA was a big run in the Manikato Stakes last start and returns to Flemington, where he’s won four from six starts. He was a Group 1 winner at his only start over this track and distance. IMPENDING was huge behind IN HER TIME first up in Sydney and could very well win this. REDKIRK WARRIOR has been very poor in every start that hasn’t been down the Flemington straight, but he’s won by 2L and 2.5L at his two wins over this track and distance. If he’s purely a Flemington straight horse, he can win this at double figure odds. Incredibly hard race to bet into here and I’ll likely just enjoy the race without betting. Leaning towards Vega Magic and Redkirk Warrior, with Chautauqua also included.
TIP: Vega Magic / Redkirk Warrior EW
Another good field with several chances, but I’m quite keen on two in particular here. The first is GINGERNUTS, who was set to run in the Caulfield Cup but had a lead up run in New Zealand washed out, so they opted to come here instead. He ran 2nd by a nose in a Group 1 over 2000m in New Zealand last start, and won the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas over 2000m back in the Autumn. Needs a good ride from barrier 12 but he’s a classy animal and $6 looks a reasonable price. The value looks to be TOSEN STARDOM at $10. He won the Group 1 Toorak Handicap two starts ago and just wasn’t suited in the Cantala last start when they jogged up front. It was impossible for him to make ground with the tempo, but there looks to be a bit of speed on here so he should get his chance from the good gate. Happy to take on CLIFF’S EDGE who tackles Open company for the first time and won’t be able to dictate from the front with GAILO CHOP and FOLKSWOOD in the race. Folkswood is one to keep safe at $5.50 after running 3rd to Winx and Humidor in the Cox Plate last start. Very happy to take on HAPPY CLAPPER at the price; I’ve got serious queries over his ability at 2000m and he got Winxed last start. IT’S SOMEWHAT could be the big improver.
TIP: Gingernuts / Tosen Stardom EW (Best Value)
Tricky race to finish the day but I’m keen on backing the Weir runner TAMASA each way at the $6.50 mark. This horse produced a big effort to win last start at Bendigo, and while it was only in BM64 grade, we’ve seen Weir bring horses through these kinds of races with plenty of success before. Draws the inside gate and can measure up here. ANDAZ and TREKKING both bring Merchant Navy form to the race, which is obviously very hot. ICON OF DUBAI was poor last start and gets the blinkers on for the first time here. I think he’s under the odds. He only won a Kembla race two starts ago and would need to improve out of sight to win this. MURAAQEB can improve up to 1400m, while TEZLAH is another lightly raced horse on the improve. Happy to take on the favourites with an each way bet to finish the carnival here.
TIP: Tamasa EW
QUADDIE (wide – skinny)
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 2, 3, 4, 6
1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 12 1, 2, 3, 5, 7
2, 3, 4, 7, 10 4, 7, 10
2, 3, 4, 5, 6 2, 4, 5
$100 = 9.52% $100 = 55.55%
_ _ _
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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