Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Warwick Farm in Sydney on Wednesday, October 11th.
We have an eight-race card to look forward to in the lead up to a huge weekend of racing, featuring Caulfield Guineas Day and The Everest!
The track is rated a Good 3 with the rail out 3m. We have betting tips and comments for every race below to kick off a huge week of racing!
Best Bet: Race 7 Tumultuous
Best Value: Race 2 Ballet Baby EW
Two nice triallers in the field here. ELEAZAR has had just the one trial, leading all the way under a hold in nice time. The query with that trial is the horse he beat isn’t much good, and the horse that ran 3rd was ENFIELD OPP who is a $10 chance here. ISAURIAN has won two trials coming into this. The form from his first trial is solid, with Deprive coming out of that trial to win its next race start. Bowman takes the ride today and from barrier 4 he should sit right on the heels of the leaders. I thought visually, Eleazar was the most impressive, but form-wise I have to oppose him. I’ve got Isaurian on top. Was expecting a big run from highly Influential but he’s been scratched.
Tough race with another set of nice triallers. BOROOOJ wasn’t asked to do much in his trial, settling midfield and being held to the line by Bowman, but still closed off in nice style. It’s a good sign when Bowman rides a Snowden horse in a trial and sticks with it for race day. SAVATIANO and BALLET BABY come out of the same trial. Ballet Baby won the trial after sitting 3rd in the run, while Savatiano sat about 6th and closed off just as well, if not a touch better. Ballet Baby has since had another trial where she sat three-wide on speed and finished 4th, without being asked to do much at all. I think she’s going well and I don’t think there should be such a discrepancy in prices here. She looks a nice each way bet at $7, but it’d be no surprise to see either of the other two win. EMPRESS MATILDA another nice trialler that should be included on debut.
TIP: Ballet Baby EW
I think KNOW HOW is a bit of a false favourite here and at the odds I have to oppose him. He won well at Rosehill over 1900m last start but he’s unplaced from seven runs at this track and from barrier 1 there’s a chance he’ll be locked away on the rail at the back of the field. READY FOR SUCCESS gets a 5.5kg weight swing on Know How and will likely sit outside the leader from barrier 8. I’d much rather be on him at $5. WINE BUSH was well-backed to win last start and ran home well into 3rd behind Know How and Ready For Success. The extra trip will suit him and he also gets a 3kg weight swing on Know How, so he finds a winnable race today. THEWAYWEARE is ready to win. He always needs at least three runs to come good. From 15 starts when first, second or third up from a spell, he’s only ever placed once. That means he’s won six times and placed twice from 11 starts when he’s fourth up or beyond. He ran 2nd to Olympic Academy last start, with a gap of 3.3L back to Exoteric, who won his next start. Has a good record over the track and distance and draws well so will go forward. Backing TheWayWeAre and saving on the lightweight Ready For Success.
Not a great race to bet into. I landed with TUTU on top but not entirely keen on the short quote. She comes off a dominant win in maiden grade at Wyong, where she won by 5L. Before that she ran into Masterati who has won his past two. She draws well and looks capable of winning a midweek race here, but Wyong maiden form isn’t the most trustworthy. She’s found her price. O’REILLY CYRUS looks set to peak third up from a spell. He ran 3rd last start behind Regimen and draws the inside gate here so will get his chance. CAMBAGE comes out of a stronger race and gets the blinkers back on but the 62.5kg is a big concern and therefore happy to risk. LIFFY was just sent around for fitness last start so don’t pay attention to the fact she finished last. Her and SO SPLENDID are Waller’s two representatives so don’t dismiss. Ugly race.
DRACHENFELS has been smashed in early betting here. He resumed from a spell with a good win over 1200m at Newcastle carrying a big weight. Has since trialled quietly and expect him to be very competitive here. I thought ART OF EXCELLENCE came up a great price, however, and I’m happy to have something on each way here. He was a tearaway leader last start over 1600m and clung on to win. Before that he won by 5L at Goulburn over 1400m. He drops back to 1400m here after a little let-up, a distance which he’s undefeated at from three starts. I like that he’s been kept fresh for this and from barrier 1 he’ll go forward and be hard to run down at $6. HIGH MIST, ALL FROM SCRAP and CHARMING LAD others to include.
TIP: Art Of Excellence EW
BEACON has two wins from three starts, including an all-the-way win at Canterbury last start. This field has a bit of depth to it but I think she’s got scope to improve and can win this again from the good draw with Bowman aboard. INVINCIBLE QUEST has won three from five, with one placing and one race where it was pulled up due to buck jumping. He resumed with a really solid win over 1000m at Wyong, run in good time too. I think he’ll measure up here at his first go in town. TO EXCESS should have won last start after being badly held up early in the straight. Up to 1100m suits as he’s undefeated at the distance and he gets in better at the weights today too. Slight concern that both his third up runs have been unplaced, and if he ends up a long way back in the field he’ll have a tough time running down some smarter ones up front. RAIDEN and RADIANT CHOICE others to consider.
Pretty keen on two Waller runners here. TUMULTUOUS put the writing on the wall first up with a big run to finish 3rd behind Mapmaker at Rosehill over 1500m. Mapmaker has since come out and run well again in Saturday grade so the form is good for a race like this. He’s won third up and has won at the distance, and Bowman takes over. Good barrier, all positive signs for him to go very close today. OBSIDIAN could run a cheeky race. This horse should improve this prep and his first up run was good in the same race as Tumultuous behind Mapmaker. He came from a long way back to only be beaten 2.3L He’s got a reasonable record at the distance and should be much better off for that first up run. Include in your numbers. Forgive MAKEADANE for his last run when trapped wide without cover. First up run was okay and he’s got a good third up record so at double figure odds he’s worth including from the much better draw. PIANISSIMO and FORTENSKY next best.
TIP: Tumultuous (Best Bet) / Obsidian EW
ZONK is a talented mare who resumes from a spell here with two trials under the belt, both of which were nice. She is set for better races than this and so long as she gets a good run from barrier 8 she will be right in the finish. IT’S TIME FOR MAGIC comes up from Melbourne. She went close at Mornington last start and now carries the big weight of 61kg here. Expect her to go well but taking her on in terms of winning. MIXED BLOSSOM has a terrific fresh record but she comes off a win on the Canberra Acton course which very rarely holds up in midweek grade in Sydney. SOMEBODY is flying on the provincials and could run a good race, but again the country form isn’t as strong. ZIN ZAN ELSIE and SHARPNESS would be competitive at their best. Keen on Zonk but it’s not a bad race.
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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