The UFC returns to Rio de Janeiro for the first time since August 2013, when Ronda Rousey dispatched her under-matched Brazilian counterpart, Bethe Correia in 34 seconds. The home town crowd will be better served this time round, as one of their greatest ever Jose Aldo returns to defend his belt. Read on for our preview of all UFC 212’s big fights.
Jose Aldo (c) vs Max Holloway
The featherweight title will be unified on Sunday when current title holder Jose Aldo does battle with interim title holder Max Holloway in front of a feverish Brazilian crowd. Despite Aldo being the inaugural UFC featherweight champion, the last and forever reigning WEC champion, having 7 straight UFC title defences and having lost only once since 2005; he will forever be synonymous with a 13 second KO loss to Conor McGregor. As career defining as that loss is; it’s clearly not an accurate representation of Aldo’s skill. He let McGregor get in his head, overextended and was caught with a perfect counter. He bounced back at UFC 200 with a one-sided decision over perennial title contender Frankie Edgar.
Aldo is probably the most technically gifted striker we have seen inside the octagon. He is a supremely talented athlete who combines speed and technique to produce a devastating offensive arsenal. He fights with Muay Thai fundamentals and has particularly nasty leg kicks which are thrown at a blinding speed with almost no wind up, making them a nightmare to defend. He also holds a BJJ blackbelt under Andre Pederneiras, but his takedown defence is so impenetrable, he has barely had a chance to show off any grappling. Early in his career Aldo was a very aggressive striker, but since becoming champion he seems more content to establish dominance and then ride out fights without taking unnecessary risks. His KO loss to McGregor will probably further solidify these tactics. Prior to the McGregor KO, he was known for an iron chin and I don’t think Holloway has the power to hurt him with one punch. The biggest flaw in his game is cardio, he has consistently slowed down in the latter rounds of fights and that will be particularly dangerous against an opponent like Max Holloway.
Hawaiian native Max Holloway is riding an incredible 10 fight win streak and earned the interim belt with a complete demolishment of former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis. Holloway is one of my very favourite fighters to watch. He is an exceptional boxer who fires off slick combinations from a long, rangy frame. But the most impressive wrinkle to his game is output; he lands at an incredible 5.5 strikers per minute usually blowing his opponent out of the water with volume alone. He regularly throws diverse 3 and 4 punch combinations and likes to rubber stamp them with body kicks. He also has excellent footwork, using angles to create openings and avoid counters. He has a tricky submission game, but Aldo should have the edge if this fight spends prolonged periods on the canvas. Holloway has an excellent chin, which has yet to be cracked, which is particularly impressive considering he has fought Conor McGregor. He does like to stand square, so will be at risk of absorbing heavy leg punishment.
Prediction: While it lacks the big name appeal, make no mistake; this is one of the highest quality fights we will see all year. It pits together two very different, but exceptional strikers. The key to victory will be who can control the pace. Holloway will be looking to win with volume, fighting up tempo and never letting Aldo settle into a rhythm. In stark contrast to Holloway, Aldo likes to dictate the pace and keep opponents hesitant to engage. It will be interesting to see how Aldo’s lightning fast counters will affect Holloway’s high output game. Aldo needs to get off to a good start; we know Holloway is going to look better in the championship rounds, so I really think Aldo needs to win the first 3 rounds. Holloway will bring the best out of Aldo, forcing him to get busy. I’ve flip flopped on the fight a lot, but I’m ultimately I’m backing Aldo’s leg kicks to be the difference. I also really like the ‘fight to go to decision’ bet, both these guys are excellent defensively and Aldo in particular likes to play it safe. Jose Aldo by 48-47 decision.
TIP: Jose Aldo to win - $1.85 at Sportsbet
TIP: Fight to go to decision - $1.70 at Ladbrokes
Claudia Gadelha vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
This is a matchup between the two best straw weights in the world not named Joanna Jędrzejczyk. Claudia Gadelha is a high level Brazilian grappler who has recently moved to the Jackson-Wink super camp. Gadelha is a powerful, athletic grappler, who is adept at using her physical gifts to dominate opponents on the ground. Her striking is sloppy, but is steadily improving under the watchful eye of Mike Winklejohn and she even earned some knockdowns against Jędrzejczyk on the feet. She faded badly in that fight, but this fight only being 3 lessens the risk of that happening again.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz is a muay thai fighter who does her best work in the clinch. She has excellent knees and elbows, but is also effective from the outside with straight punches and kicks. For a striking specialist, she has poor defence and her susceptibility to counters was made painfully clear in her loss to Jędrzejczyk. She has shown off strong takedown defence, but this is the first time she has faced a grappler of Gadelha’s quality.
Prediction: These fighters have a combined 3 career losses, all of which came to Jędrzejczyk. However while Gadelha had close losses, Kowalkiewicz was blown out of the water. On the feet Kowalkiewicz has the technical advantage, but will still get hit a lot. While on the ground it will be all Gadelha. Gadelha will also have a significant athletic advantage and I like her a lot in this fight. Claudia Gadelha by 30-27 decision.
TIP: Claudia Gadelha by decision - $1.61 at Ladbrokes
Vitor Belfort vs Nate Marquadt
This is a matchup between two clearly over the hill fighters who just can’t hang up the gloves. Vitor Belfort fought at UFC 12 and has been fighting in the octagon for 20 years. He is one of the biggest names in Brazilian MMA and will most likely retire after this fight. A former light-heavyweight champion, the majority of his athletic gifts have left him, but he remains a dangerous striker. None of his UFC victories have gone to decision and the overwhelming majority have come by devastating first round KO.
Nate Marquadt is a former UFC middleweight title contender who has won only one 3 of his last 10 fights. He is a submission specialist, but prefers to stand and trade on the feet. At this point his chin is pretty much shot and he will need to get a KO or a takedown pretty quickly if he wants to avoid being the final highlight on Belfort’s impressive KO reel.
Prediction: A really tough fight to call as both fighters are clearly diminished and regressing with each octagon appearance. I favour Belfort in front of his home crowd (and if it is his last fight; PED suspensions aren’t going to worry him). The bet is going to be on the under 1.5 rounds, I’d be shocked if either of these guys can last longer than that. Vitor Belfort by 1st round KO
TIP: Fight end under 1.5 rounds - $1.40 at Ladbrokes
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
