Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Sandown Lakeside, Warwick Farm and Belmont on Wednesday, July 11th.
Sandown and Belmont are currently rated in the Soft range, while Warwick Farm is expected to be a Good 4.
We’ve gone through all three meetings and selected a few of the races to bet in below!
Best Bet: Sandown Race 5 #6 Street Spun
Best Value Bet: Belmont Race 5 #4 Thunderplump
Craig Williams is fresh off six winners on the weekend and seems to ride winners for fun every July when the Melbourne jockeys’ premiership is up for grabs. He takes the ride on the Ciaron Maher-trained (11) Cataracta here, who ran 2nd on debut at Sale, beaten a nose. There really doesn’t look to be a great deal of depth to this race and she should find herself right up on the speed from barrier 3, which is a big advantage on the Lakeside course. She’s short enough at $2.60 but looks a big chance of taking this out.
(12) Outback Warrior was very heavily backed on debut and justified the support by destroying his rivals. He led all the way to win by a very comfortable 3.25L and should be more than capable of handling the rise in grade to BM64 company here. (14) Signature Street could be a value runner in the race at around $13. This Darren Weir-trained gelding trialled well behind Bel Sonic leading into his debut. He started $2.25 favourite at Swan Hill on debut but failed on the Heavy ground. He atoned for that defeat with victory at Mildura last start, where he and the second horse cleared out from 3rd. He comes to midweek metro grade now and whenever Weir brings them here from the country, they generally measure up.
Looks a bit of a match-race between the top two here with (1) Serenade The Stars and (2) Thunder Cloud, who finished a nose apart at their last start at Moonee Valley. Both runs were very good. Serenade The Stars was only second up and stepping up from 1600m to 2040m, and got going for home fairly early. He’s now had that run at the distance under his belt and should be ready to peak third up here. Barrier 1 means he will be much further forward than Thunder Cloud in the run. Thunder Cloud’s run at the Valley was huge. Dean Yendall rode him very patiently but he had to make a wide, looping run from the back of the field and finished strongly once he balanced up. His final 800m of the race was superior to anything else’s. From barrier 10 he maps fairly awkwardly here but D Lane replaces Yendall here and he’s a deserved favourite. Leaning slightly towards Thunder Cloud. (5) Tuff Bickie can improve second up.
Pretty keen on (6) Street Spun here. She’s improved with every start this preparation, as her record tends to suggest she does, and her win at the Valley last start was fairly convincing. She only goes up2.5kg here and maps beautifully from barrier 5. She’s run 2nd at both attempts at this track and distance and also has a win to her name over 2400m here. She looks hard to beat again today and I think the $4.20 is actually quite a good price.
Looks a nice race for Godolphin filly (2) Demolition who has flashed home at both starts this preparation. She ran the clear best sectionals of the race last start and shouldn’t be as far awayh todayh from barrier 3. Damian Lane takes the ride for the first time this preparation and despite the 61.5kg she looks a terrific winning chance.
Very interesting jockey booking of Hugh Bowman on (3) Safe Landing, especially with a Waller runner engaged, to be ridden by Brenton Avdulla. It could well be that Bowman can’t make the 55kg of the Waller runner, but even so, him being engaged on the Kurt Goldman horse on debut catches the eye. The horse trialled reasonably well back in February and hasn’t trialled since. With that in mind, it’s interesting that they bring it straight to metro midweek grade instead of something easier. $13 is a price worth having something on given those factors.
There’s plenty in favour of (4) Kissing Game here. Typically, Wyong form isn’t form I respect in this sort of midweek metropolitan company but I thought her run first up was good given the stable she’s from. John Thompson runners rarely win first up and this mare follows a similar path that saw her win last preparation at her second start. That was in metropolitan grade, albeit a maiden, which shows she’s up to this sort of level. Happy to take $4.20 here.
Pretty keen on the Waller/Shinn runner (7) Sweet Scandal. I think she’s found a few vulnerable types in this race and can build on her comfortable maiden victory last start. She won as expected as the $1.70 favourite on that occasion but she draws to get a gun run from barrier 4 here and looks pretty progressive, whereas one or two of her main rivals have given themselves up in recent starts.
Looks very short (3) Mr Haussman at even money but it does look a pretty low race and you’d think this is very winnable for him. He backs up quickly today after going around on Saturday when he finished 4th behind Seahampton. Third up in Australia today, Bowman on, barrier 1 and up to the mile for the first time this prep. Today looks his day.
On paper this looks a very, very thin race and that makes (3) Hyperspace an undestandable favourite here with a winning trial under his belt and William Pike on from barrier 1. There is a number of horses that have been beaten significant margins in their recent runs and if Hyperspace brings his trial form to the races today he looks the one to beat.
Again, not a lot of great form to go off here. The race just looks to set up perfectly for the second-favourite (8) Mystery Affair from barrier 6. She comes off a good 2nd placing first up at Northam over 1100m and steps up to 1200m second up here. Second up last prep she ran 2nd at Ascot over 1400m so I’m expecting improvement here and as mentioned, she should get a terrific run from barrier 6. Plenty of other fancies have drawn horribly so if Harvey can steer his way clear of trouble, she should have every chance of breaking her maiden today.
A bit of value here with (4) Thunderplump, who I’ve backed in both starts this preparation. First up she ran 2nd here at Belmont behind Deep Cover, who then went and ran 2nd at its next start in Saturday metro grade. Thunderplump bounced back last start with a win at Northam and comes into today third up. Drawn a shade awkwardly but she’s finished in the top two at four of her five career starts and brings some reasonable form lines to the race here, so with nearly double figures on offer, she appeals as a good each way bet in an open race.
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