Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, August 22nd, featuring the Group 1 Golden Rose Stakes.
We have nine races on a Good track with the rail out 3m.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below.
Best Bet: Race 6 #2 Daysee Doom E/W
Best Value: Race 4 #3 Etah James
Tough way to start with not a lot standing out here. (1) Gem Song was beaten first up but didn’t get a great deal of luck and looks to be a progressive filly in a field of horses that have some question marks over them. She represents a stable in red-hot form at the moment and gets a positive jockey change as well. Not top pick for me but will be saving on her. (3) Quackerjack was well supported at longer odds first up and never got a clear crack at them in the straight. The form out of that race is retty poor but the horse didn’t get any opportunity to show what he could do. Avdulla takes over today. (5) Royal Celebration probably brings the best form to the race behind the likes of The Autumn Sun last preparation. He also beat Wagner, who has gone to a new level this preparation. Drawn wide which is a little query but finds a winnable race first up. (4) Sweet Ava will be going forward today with the visors on first time and the step up in trip so could hang on for a place at double figure odds.
Highly uninspiring Highway Handicap. (11) Think Like A Fox has had a nice set up for the 1500m here, with two runs at Goulburn over 1200m and 1300m. He was caught wide without cover last start and did a good job to get as close as he did. Lightly raced and from the right stable to be competitive. (1) My Blue Jeans is his stablemate and has been going round in Highways recently. That’s often the best form for other Highway races and he’s now third up from a spell. (2) Risk And Reward steps up sharply in trip which is the concern but did go close in a Highway last start so has obvious claims, while (3) Seeblume looks the value chance in the race after a luckless firt up run. Bowman takes over from the inside gate today and a win wouldn’t surprise.
Hate this race. (1) Tarka goes on top by default after saluting in the Stan Fox Stakes last start, where he got the better of Dealmaker and The Autumn Sun. I thought he just about won the lottery in winning that race but I think he’s beat two pretty good horses there. J Mac sticks with him and he can stalk the leader from barrier 1. That leader is likely to be (3) Thinkin’ Big who should basically get things his own way out front. He’s had eight weeks off since his last-start win and has been kept up to the mark with two barrier trials. (2) Irukandji won third up last prep over 1400m in Group 3 company so finds this race at the right stage of his preparation. (4) Tavirun comes off a strong win at the Valley last start but he did lead on that occasion and it’s always a bit easier to lead and win at the Valley. Won’t lead here and the Melbourne form is always questionable when lining it up to the Sydney form in these races.
Absolutely hate these staying races in Sydney but there’s a little bit of interest and a little bit of value with a couple of Melbourne horses engaged. Those are the two horses I’ll be backing here. (3) Etah James comes into this third up and gets up to its right distance now. Finished third last at the Valley last start but was caught wide the entire trip so had excuses. In a very thin race, she’s a progressive, light-raced type with six wins from 12 starts so at $8 she looks a value chance. (6) Sin To Win resumed with a good effort first up at 1700m and jumps straight to 2400m now which is a big negative, but he was a winner over 3200m last preparation so the further he goes the better he should get. Has won at this distance before and has a good second up record. Backing both.
Looks between the Waller stablemates (5) Noire and (6) Youngstar. Noire was a huge run first up over 1200m in the G2 Sheraco Stakes when coming from the back of the field to be beaten a nose by Invincibella. She also lost a plate in running during the race so the effort was perhaps even better than it seems. She’s had three starts second up from a spell for two wins and a 2nd placing and with 53.5kg on her back she looks a big chance again. Youngstar resumed in the G2 Tramway Stakes behind Comin’ Through. She was a Group 1 winner over 2200m last preparation so will be even better over further than this and barrier 1 is a slight concern given the way she maps in the race. That’s not to say she can’t win but I prefer the stablemate.
(2) Daysee Doom looks a pretty solid each way bet here for mine at $7.50. She didn’t have much luck first up on the heavy ground over 1200m. Much better suited today up to 1400m, back on to firm ground and with a good barrier draw. She’s won three from four at the distance and her record at Rosehill is fantasatic. You only have to go back to March to see she won a Group 1 over 1500m here second up from a spell. $7.50/$2.50 looks an attractive each way price. (4) Invincibella won well first up and has very good Rosehill form. She’s possibly better suited on the wet ground but she’s got a very consistent second up record and will run a big race once again. (1) Prompt Response was a Group 1 winner the last time we saw her and resumes over 1400m today which is a similar distance to what she won the Group 1. Whether she is sharp enough fresh against some other mares with race fitness under their belt is the question, but she’s trialled well and will take some running down. (5) Champagne Cuddles will be better suited on firm ground today but barrier 1 isn’t ideal, as proved last start.
The Group 1 Golden Rose. Tough to separate the top four in the race book, who all come through the same race – the Run To The Rose – but that was on a heavy track and we get back to firm ground today. (1) Lean Mean Machine was the winner of that race and did it in impressive fashion but I’m inclined to take him on today. He was a $26 chance in that race and had a perfect run in the race. He ran down (4) Graff on that occasion, who had no luck throughout after being caught four-wide without cover. Prior to that he bolted in to win the San Domenico Stakes easily. Draws ideally in barrier 4 today, should get the run of the race and prove very hard to beat. (2) The Autumn Sun gets blinkers applied for the first time today and comes back in distance from 1500m to 1400m, which is an odd prep but it seems to have been done very deliberately by Waller. Get the fitness in, come back in distance, blinkers on to sharpen him up and no doubt he will be cherry ripe for today. He did very well to get as close as he did first up. (3) Zousain shouldn’t be underestimated and will relish getting back to firm ground today. Going with Graff on top, the biggest danger is The Autumn Sun, but the value at each way odds is Zousain. I’ll likely back Graff and save on the other two.
Only three I was really interested in here. (5) Mandylionbroke through for a deserved victory last start after being around the mark in three starts prior to that. She’s racing in very consistent form and should find the lead again today, in which case she’ll be tough to run down. At $5.00 and $1.95 the place she looks a fairly safe each way bet. (9) Fierce Impact showed plenty in his first Australian preparation, putting in a big performance first up at Warwick Farm before winning at Royal Randwick over 1400m. The form out of those two races has proved to be pretty decent and he’s had three trials in readiness for today’s first up run. Certainly a chance. (11) Savacool went close first up last prep over this track and distance. She started $6.00 in the Group 1 Queensland Oaks but failed to finish last. First up now with one trial under the belt. She might take some more racing but if she returns in similar order to what she did last prep, she’ll go close.
Terrible race to finish off with here with numerus Waller stayers going round. (4) The Lord Mayor was very heavily backed two starts back when failing badly but he bounced back with the step up to 2000m last start. He should be better off for that given how sharply he stepped up in trip and if McDonald takes him forward again today he should run well. (3) Abdon was a good run first up behind Goodfella but goes up in weight here and will get a long way back from barrier 13. He’s also had eight starts at the distance and is yet to win. (14) Tamarack could be the value at double figure odds. He comes out of two good form races with the likes of High Bridge and Excelsior both winning races again since. Down in weight to 53kg today and Avdulla takes over. Not the worst hope in an open last race.
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