Rosehill Racing Tips for Saturday, July 15th

Sat, 15/07/2017 - 1:01am, tim_tips

Rosehill Gardens hosts a nine-race card in Sydney this weekend and it looks like we've got some good weather for the first time in a long time. The track is currently rated a Good 4 and with a fine day forecast we should stay around that mark throughout the day.

We have tips and comments for every race on the card below.

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Rosehill Racing Tips for Saturday, 15th of July

Race 1

CALCULATED was absolutely backed off the boards first up from a spell in a midweek race at Canterbury and he won impressively after initially being held up in the straight. Bowman put a big wrap on him after the win and that would make you think he'd be good enough to step up to Saturday grade here and win this. The step up in distance certainly favours him. The concern I have is that he was backed incredibly heavily for that race, but he's been $2.35 out to $2.80 so far for Saturday's race. I think we'll see late support for him on the day, but it does make you wonder when they are backed so heavily one week and a drifter early on for its next start. One that I think is really over the odds is TENNESSEE TANGO at $16. She also won over 1200m at Canterbury on the same day as Calculated, and actually ran a marginally quicker time than him, so there really shouldn't be such a discrepancy in prices here. She ran 1:12.65 compared to his 1:12.67 for the 1200m on the Soft 5, and the way she has progressed it looks like 1400m will suit her just as much. Draws well, drops 2kg from that run and expect her to run a big race.

Tip: Calculated / Tenneessee Tango EW (Best Value)

 

Race 2

Competitive race and one I'm not overly confident on. I've landed on INSENSATA basically by default based on the speed map and current form. She's racing well although I don't think the form is necessarily very deep. But from barrier 4 she will land straight into the box seat behind the leaders and her record at the distance is good. She should get the plum run of the race and on a Good surface there is no reason she can't put another win on the board. I think $15 for MARIQUITA is over the odds and represents the value in the race. Her first up run may not have looked great, but she isn't great on wet tracks and nor is she great first up from a spell. She will be much better off on a Good track here second up from a spell. Carries just 51kg after the claim and can sit closer today from barrier 1. PIONEERING and LABDIEN are winning chances for Waller. 

Tip: Insensata / Mariquita EW

 

Race 3

Never very keen on the Highway Handicap races but SURPRISE PARTY looks the most progressive and unexposed horse in the race here. She won two of her three races in her debut campaign and resumes here over 1100m. She could lead here or take a sit from barrier 4 and she should be hard to beat. Biggest danger could be COSMIC REIGN, but the ones at odds to include are EMPYREAN, NORTHERN CONQUEROR and STAR INSPIRATION. Empyrean resumes from a spell and carries just 53kg here. Finished her last prep off nicely and draws well here. $14 looks value.

Tip: Surprise Party / Empyrean EW

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Race 4

Wide open race. WALK THE STREETS has placed in her last four starts, including a runner up finish last start over 1900m here. She comes back to 1800m here which I think suits her given she was just run down late last start, and getting back onto a firmer surface should also favour her. They left the option open to ride her with cover last start so no surprise to see her ridden a touch more conservatively instead of going forward. She strikes another winnable race here and should be in the finish once again. The value could be LIVE TO DREAM even though he's been a drifter in early markets. He won three races in a row before bumping into a smart winner last start that should go on to better races. Importantly, there was a good margin back to the third horse so I think we can be confident that Live To Dream can measure up to Saturday class here. Draws horribly but I do think he can figure in the finish at double figure odds. 

Tip: Walk The Streets / Live To Dream EW

 

Race 5

Keen on two here and keen to take on a couple. On top for me is FAITH'S ENCORE who has won in this sort of grade before and was only seen once last prep which was in Listed company. So she is clearly up to better races but has had issues along the way. Has a good record first up and a good record at the distance, and has Kerrin McEvoy riding for the Snowdens. I have a knock on a few of the others so this strikes me as a very winnable race for her at $4.80. The value I think is PICK ME UP who put in two very good runs to kick off this preparation, but failed last start after travelling four wide without cover for the whole race. If you put a line through that run and judge her on her first two runs this campaign, she profiles well for this race and is value at $8.50. She goes well at the distance, draws perfectly to sit in midfield, and should be able to be very competitive with the right run here. I'll take on KING DARCI who has never won under 1300m and hasn't placed at either run over 1200m. CONARCHIE has only won two races from 20 starts on Good ground, SONIC SWISH hasn't fired at this track from five starts, DAM READY has been underwhelming in Melbourne, and if ZARA BAY wins I might give it up! I could entertain CLEAR THE BEACH but Reith is my biggest worry there.

Tip: Faith's Encore / Pick Me Up EW

 

Race 6

Cracking race this and only three I'm interested in. The first is the favourite SIR PLUSH for obvious reasons. His form is just so consistent and the horse that beat him last start has since come out and won the Ramornie Handicap in Listed grade at Grafton. Getting back on to Good ground here should see him improve on last start and he maps to get a perfect run in midfield. My biggest concern with Sir Plush is that Jason Collett is riding and he can certainly find trouble. He deserves to be favourite and no surprises to see him win at all, but there's a couple at better odds that I'd rather back here. WASHINGTON HEIGHTS is one of those. He returns to Australia after a season in Hong Kong where he won two from four races. He's always been a hugely classy animal but has just failed to live up to his potential. We saw signs that he may have been able to do that in Hong Kong, so it will be interesting to see what level he can return to now back in Australia. His trial was nice and McEvoy is booked for the ride. Expect him to be ridden cold from the wide barrier and hopefully he finishes off because he's probably the best horse in the race. $6.50 for him. PRINCEFAMOUS for the Snowden stable can run a big race here at $14. He failed first up but I'm prepared to forgive him for that given he was galloped on badly and also his record on Soft ground is poor. Back on to firm ground here he can go well, especially with the 2kg claim for Heywood. Slight concern over the distance but he's over the odds for mine.

Tip: Washington Heights / Princefamous EW

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Race 7

Ultra competitive race. BURNING PASSION goes on top after proving me wrong last start in Brisbane to win in Group 3 company. My worry was the firm ground but he put that to bed pretty easily. He's the horse that's in form and gets in well at the weights. Just needs a good ride from Parr but at $5 he's a decent bet. Happy to have something on EXTENSIBLE at $7 too. I've been on her a few times this prep but she really gets things to suit here. She's finished in the top two over this track and distance on four occasions from five starts. Draws perfectly in barrier 2 and McEvoy takes the ride for the Snowdens. Back on firm ground with just 53kg, she can give this a shake. There's plenty of others to include. NINTH LEGION. CENTRE PIVOT and CLASSIC UNIFORM can all run better than their odds suggest. Taking on Gold Symphony with the weight today and on firmer ground with a wide barrier.

Tip: Burning Passion / Extensible EW

 

Race 8

With two Waller runners here and hoping he can land the spoils with one of them. ESTIKHRAAJ will need one more scratching to gain a run given he's third emergency but he's struck form and can go on with it here. He draws wide but there looks to be a strong tempo and he can come home strongly like he did last start when racing away to win easily over 1900m at Canterbury. Keep an eye on the market for his stablemate SPRINGBOK FLYER. It really catches my eye that McEvoy takes the ride on this runner for Waller. He's never placed at the track and never placed at the distance, but he has won over 2200m before. The key is the Good track, however. He's never won from 14 starts on Soft ground and never placed from four starts on Heavy ground. So if he was running over 2000m on wet ground, that explains why he's never placed. His run at the start of the campaign on Good ground was nice, and his last two starts on wet ground can be forgiven but they've got him fit. Draws well, strong jockey booking, right sort of trip, Good ground. He ticks some boxes at $15. Several other hopes.

Tip: Estikhraaj / Springbok Flyer EW

 

Race 9

Two I quite like here. The first is FLOW for Godolphin who ran 3rd in the Sunshine Coast Guineas last start which followed a dominant win at Kembla Grange on a Heavy track. He draws awkward and carries 59kg but he drops way back to a BM78 here which should see him hard to beat at $3.80. The other is ZAUKONIG which comes up $10 and represents great value. His first up record is very good with two wins and a placing from four starts, he's won two from three on Good ground, goes well at the distance and gets in well after Heywood's 2kg claim. Draws perfectly and can run a big race fresh here. RENEGED and IT'S SO OBVIOUS are winning chances.

Tip: Flow (Best Bet) / Zaukonig EW

 

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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

 

 

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