Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, August 24th, featuring the San Domenico Stakes, Ming Dynasty and Premiers Cup.
We have nine races on a Soft track and there’s more rain on the way so I’d be planning for the track to remain Soft or potentially even be downgraded.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below. Tune into Episode 48 of the Before You Bet Podcast as we dissect each of the feature races and discuss our best bets in both Sydney and Melbourne in detail!
Best Bet: Race 9 #3 Paret
Best Value: Race 2 #6 Itsa Fait Accompli
Fairly good betting race to open the card here I think. (11) Eugene’s Pick at $5 but I’m very keen to take it on here. She’s on a quick back-up after posting wins at Goulbun and Kembla Grange but that form is hardly strong enough to warrant being favourite in a Saturday metropolitan race. Kathy O’Hara is booked to ride and that’s another reason I’m keen to take her on. I think there’s value to be found elsewhere. Three in particular stand out. (1) All Too Soon was sound first up behind Irithea over 1400m here, where she settled last and was beaten 3L. Better suited second up here and the slight increase in trip will suit – she won second up over 1800m here last preparation. Angland takes over, perhaps she can settle a touch closer from barrier 1 and at $6.50 she looks a strong hope. (2) Mandylion looks the clear leader in the race and has been good in both starts this prep behind Irithea. She was beaten a length last start (2L ahead of All Too Soon) and both her and All Too Soon rise the same amount of weight. Back onto soft ground looks a positive and with the lack of speed in the race she will be hard to catch. (7) Bella Success is a $7.50 chance and is worth having something on. Bowman takes over today and if this mare can jump a bit cleaner and show a bit more early speed, she can find winning form. She’s just been unable to take up a position anywhere near the speed (even though they announced their intention to settle further forward last start). Drawn well and running well, so if she is close enough, she can win. Happy to back all three of those in a dutch bet to win the same amount.
Tough race with no standouts here. I’ve landed on (6) Itsa Fait Accompli by default at around $9.00, which seems a decent each way price. He’s put two consecutive wins together, backing up a win at Narrandera with a win at Canterbury last start. He’s won six of his 19 starts and he’s also won at this track previously, which is something that can’t be said for a number of his rivals. McEvoy takes the ride and from barrier 3 he should get a decent trip. (3) Letter To Juliette resumed with a win at huge odds over 1800m at Randwick. Could go straight to the lead from the wide barrier today as opposed to getting the run of the race as she did first up. (1) Trafalgar and (4) Impravido have had 12 starts at Rosehill between them and neither has been able to post a win. (2) Estikhraaj was too bad to be true last start and could bounce back – keep a close eye on the market. (9) Royal Stamp had a bit of support at longer odds last start and was just nosed out by Quick Defence. Slight query about the strength of that race but down in the weights again and drawn well.
Highway Handicap and there’s a few chances and a few queries with this race. I’d be having (8) Highway Sixtysix comfortably on top if it weren’t for the fact he’s got synthetic hoof filler for the first time, which suggests he’s probably had feet issues since that first up win at Randwick in July. He’s had seven weeks off since then and a trial in between so there are question marks about his soundness. If he were completely sound, I think he’d be winning. (6) Common Purpose comes to town with seven top-two finishes from nine career starts, including back-to-back wins at Goulburn. Those wins suggest he’s returned in terrific form this campaign but Goulburn form is questionable, especially in a Highway field as competitive as this. I think the draw makes him vulnerable too. (1) Equal Balance resumes from a spell. He won first up last prep over 1000m and has got a win at the track and distance to his name in the past, where he defeated the likes of She Knows. The claim helps and he’s drawn well in barrier 6 so is a definite winning chance. (12) Risk And Reward looks a good each way chance in the race after a sound first up run over this track and distance in a Highway. Down in weight and Jason Collett takes over today so with the first up run under his belt, he looks a decent each way bet at $8.00. Backing Equal Balance and Risk And Reward with a saver on Highway Sixtysix.
(2) Single Bullet has been gelded since last preparation and resumes after two solid winning trials at Warwick Farm. He’s always been a horse with plenty of ability but has never quite put it all together. Perhaps the gelding operation will see him produce what the stable have always said he’s capable of. (1) She Knows carries the full brunt of 63.5kg here, first up from a seven week spell. She was in hot form before the break but all of it came on wet ground over 1000m-1100m at Randwick. First up at 1100m at Rosehill with 63.5kg won’t be easy. The Godolphin stable is absolutely flying and we’ve seen them switch horses from Melbourne to Sydney and vice versa with plenty of success in recent months. (13) Sanglier will try to keep that going after a luckless first up run at Moonee Valley in Melbourne. Up to Sydney now for this second up run and drops from 59.5kg to 53kg. Draws well and could be the value in the race. Definitely not underestimating him and the stable’s form. (6) Upscale and (8) Pedway others to consider.
The San Domenico Stakes for the three-year-olds here and it looks a race that could go just about any way. (8) Neutrality goes on top following two impressive trials leading into his resumption. He bolted in on debut back in November and was then slaughtered in the Silver Slipper in February. He hasn’t been seen since then but from what we’ve seen at the trials he looks to have returned very well. Drawn nicely and Kerrin McEvoy on board for the Snowden stable. (1) Performer has huge wraps on him and could be ready to deliver now as a three-year-old following a strange end to his juvenile season. He won his first two starts before dumping Hugh Bowman in the Todman Stakes. He then started a solid $8 chance in the Golden Slipper but did absolutely nothing. Has trialed twice leading into today and won the latest of those which is encouraging for a Waller horse. (3) Jonker hasn’t raced since being poleaxed in the Gold Coast Magic Millions in January. His first two starts were very impressive and he’s won a trial leading into today, although he was made to earn it. (6) Graff ran second to Jonker in the trial and he’s undefeated in two career starts. He gets blinkers on for the first time today. (5) Plague Stone was a bit plain last start but was very good first up and can bounce back.
Another confusing race. (3) Danawi has run 2nd in all three starts to date and has his first start at his home track today. He looks the clear leader in the race and judging by his first two starts this prep, we’ll get much better than the $4.00 currently on offer. There’s a good chance he doesn’t even start favourite given he’s been a huge drifter both first and second up. Worth one more go today but wait til before the race to back him. (1) Outrageous blew out the cobwebs first up over 1100m. He ran 3rd at Group 1 level last preparation over this distance so looks much better suited at the 1400m. Has to carry much more weight than anything else in the field and does draw wide but James McDonald takes over and he looks an obvious chance. (2) Toulouse is two from two at the track and distance since returning as a gelding. They were in weaker races but I wouldn’t completely discount him in this. (9) Signore Fox resumed with a dominant win at Hawkesbury which backed up two good trials. Normally Hawkesbury form is worth rubbishing but he’s from a stable that will know what they’re doing.
Looks a very nice race for Godolphin import (9) Avilius, who couldn’t have been more impressive on his Australian debut last start. I was very keen to oppose him that day as he was first up from a lengthy spell, had a big weight, a wide draw and raced over an unsuitable distance. But he motored home from the back of the field and won very softly. The step up in trip will only suit him better today and he drops all the way down to 53kg. Looks very hard to beat. (3) Emperor’s Way showed the improvement we expected last start when denied by a nose ovr 1800m at this track. Fourth run back from a spell now and drops down to 54.5kg. He should be at his absolute peak and looks an each way chance again. (13) I Am Serious was a huge run first up over 1400m at this track. Slight query jumping sharply up to 1900m here. Will go back from the wide barrier and finish off. Has a good second up record and McEvoy takes over so expect her to go well. Interested to see how (14) Peribsen goes - $61 is a huge price, especially if the rain comes. He won second up last prep over a similar distance to this and he gets the blinkers reapplied today. Jason Collett takes over from apprentice Brock Ryan and the horse has won three from five on soft ground. Definitely include in numbers.
Godolphin look to have a couple of terrific chances here. (3) Trekking is the clear top pick after a strong first up win over Tactical Advantage, justifying heavy market support in the lead up. He won dominantly second up last preparation and despite the weight rise today, should go on with the job. (10) Intuition is flying, winning his past two starts. He’s won four from seven at the distance, draws barrier 1 and Bowman keeps the ride. (9) Don’t Give A Damn is undefeated first up and has only finished outside the top two on one occasion in his eight-start career, but he resumes with concussion plates back on his feet today so there is some query about his soundness. (11) Miss Que was beaten 0.4L by Trekking first up and gets a 2.5kg weight swing today. Draws better in barrier 2 and can run well again. (13) Renewal not hopeless. Keen on Trekking.
Only two horses I’m interested in to round out the day here. (3) Paret has been my best bet of the day in his past two starts and hasn’t let me down on either occasion and once again he looks one of the best bets all day. He’s got a tricky draw in barrier 13 but the horse is absolutely flying and delivering on the potential he showed as a juvenile. His last-start win was incredibly comfortable and so long as he gets a comfortable run early, he’ll be sailing down the outside late. (10) Mapmaker salutd over the track and distance last start, taking his record at the track and distance to two wins and two 2nds from five starts. Drawn barrier 2 here and looks the only real threat to the favourite.
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