Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Randwick on Saturday, July 7th.
We have nine races on a Heavy 8 track with the rail out 9m
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below.
Best Bet: Race 9 #1 She Knows
Best Value: Race 7 #6 Just Shine
Even sort of race with a few different form lines coming into play here. Happy to go with the favourite (1) Marmaris who has a few things in his favour. He’s in his second preparation as a two-year-old and comes out of a Saturday grade race first up, where he ran 2nd. That was over 1200m, just like today’s race is, while a few others come out of 1100m races. He’s proven on Heavy ground and the horse that beat him first up has since won again in Saturday grade. (10) Mizzy looks a value chance after running 2nd on debut at Canterbury over 1100m on Heavy ground. Although she was beaten a nose, the time of her race was quicker than (2) Thinkin’ Big’s winning time on the same day.
Rarely get excited about Highways and this is no different. The only query about (5) Highway Sixtysix is just how tuned up she is for her first run for 238 days, especially on a wet track. Her form from last prep would see her very hard to beat here and you just have to trust that Danny Williams has her ready to come straight to town. The danger looks obvious in the form of (4) Nicconita who only needs to reproduce recent performances to be competitive once again.
Only a small field but a number of hopes. Siding with the Queensland form of (3) Envy Of All, but she also brings good form behind the likes of She Knows from earlier this prep. Bred to handle the wet and her record suggests she does with ease, drawn well and in winning form. (4) You Make Me Smile won at big odds last start but should only improve third up today and clearly loves the wet. She’s won three of her four starts on wet ground and can be competitive again. (1) Revenire hasn’t been beaten far in recent starts but has to once again carry top weight with 60.5kg. It will be a big effort for her to win. (6) Sparkly Star and (7) Bella Success are others that can win, but I’ll be happily taking on (2) Bombarding.
Prepared to forgive (3) La Chica Bella for her last start failure when she carried 61kg over the 1800m. Back to the mile today and down in weight to 58kg. The small field is likely to help and if she can reproduce her form from two starts ago she’ll be hard to beat. (6) Wide Spread Panic broke her maiden in good style two starts ago on the Kensington track before being beaten half-a-length at Wyong last start with 61.5kg. All the way down to 53kg today so must be considered. (4) Touch Of Mink wasn’t beaten far last start and did win over 1400m here two starts ago. The wet ground is the major concern for her. (7) Sepoy Achiever third up at the mile has some claims.
These staying races tend to throw up different results every week but the win of (1) Plymouth Road was impressive last start and justified some good betting support. Rises 3.5kg in the weights and does look to have some competition for the lead here, but if he gets a soft enough run he’ll be hard to run down on the Heavy ground again. (3) Only Tiger ran 2nd to him last start and won two in a row prior to that. If the speed does go on up front, he’ll be working home over the top of them. (7) Ombudsman could be the one they have to worry most about, however. He’s been around the mark all prep and was only beaen 0.7L last start when coming from the back of the field. 53kg helps but he does have to jump from 1900m to 2400m which is some concern.
Very open race with a number of chances. Sticking with Godolphin filly (5) Popular who was a comfortable winner on Heavy ground at Warwick Farm. She carried 57kg on that occasion and goes up just 1kg for today’s race, so with Tye Angland sticking with her, she has a leading chance once again. (9) Oria ran 2nd to her on that occasion but was fairly well held so the 1kg weight swing may not be enough to turn the tables today. (12) Seahampton didn’t get a whole lot of luck at Cantebury last start when beaten half-a-length. She was well beaten first up by Popular on Heavy ground so the fact she’s favourite is somewhat surprising, but she’s now third up at 1400m and that last run was a big improvement. (7) High Power looks to have returned well with a good win at Newcastle first up.
Waller has six runners engaged here so it really is anyone’s guess which of those will be the best chance on the day. I’ll stick with (5) Chaterlard after he won last start, finally bouncing back to the form we saw from him earlier in his career. The big query today is how he will handle the heavy track but both his runs this campaign have been good and he can go on with the job here. (6) Just Shine looks a value chance at double figure odds. He’s second up today after a run to blowout the cobwebs first up at the Kensington track, where he carried 60.5kg. His second up record is three starts for two wins and he really is bred to handle wet ground. Has won a trial since his first up run and looks primed to run a good race here.
I was keen on (2) Best Guess before he was scratched last week and although this race isn’t as suitable as the one he was set to line up in last week, he’s a good price today at each way odds. It’d be ideal for him if the track had been upgraded into the Soft range by the time this race comes around as the only query is his record on Heavy ground, but he’s undefeated from two starts on Soft ground and so I’m prepared to take the risk. Also undefeated second up and gets JMac on with a good draw. (1) Pelethronius has the big weight to carry but has won four of his five starts on Heavy ground and only lost by half-a-length at the other. (9) Brook Magic had some excuses for her poor showing last week and can bounce back here. Don’t dismiss (13) Smartedge.
(1) She Knowsis flying and absolutely bolted in last start. Drawn a touch tricky today but there’s no reason she can’t go on with it today in similar conditions to last start. Actually thought she’d be a bit shorter in the market. (2) Nictock had excuses last start and deserves another chance from the good draw with Shinn taking over from the apprentice. Probably better on firmer ground though. (8) Tip Top is a talented type that’s capable of measuring up on his day, while the booking of Brenton Avdulla on Gary Portelli’s (10) Puppet Master is particularly eye-catching. The stable are absolutely flying and at double figure odds could be the value in the race.
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