Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Randwick on Saturday, July 21st.
We have nine races on a Good 4 track with the rail in the True position.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below. Be sure to check out Episode 43 of the Before You Bet Podcast to get Tim's full thoughts on the Flemington and Randwick meetings!
RANDWICK RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 6 #8 Seahampton
Best Value: Race 2 #1 Lost Command
RACE 1
Two-year-old race to kick things off and we see the return of the Blue Diamond runner-up (1) Plague Stone. He’s won two trials leading into his resumption today and if he were to return at his best (or even better with improvement over the spell?) then he will surely take care of these. The market will be critical to monitor and the only slight query must be the 1000m first up. (4) The Tenor won easily on debut in provincial grade at Newcastle over 900m. Steps up to 1000m which will be no issue and Avdulla retains the ride. Sure to give the favourite something to chase. (5) Witherspoon returned from a seven week break with a dominant win over 900m at Newcastle, too. They were on different days, but Witherspoon ran a quicker time over the 900m on Soft ground than The Tenor did on Good ground. She also showed plenty of talent earlier in her career and if she’s back to her best she will be right there in the finish. (7) Watching at $51 is worth throwing in.
RACE 2
The Highway Handicap here and it looks a competitive one this week. Keen to back (1) Lost Command each way here at $6.50. This horse resumed in a BM76 race at Canterbury over 1100m and was promoted to 2nd on protest after severe interference at the 500m mark. Even after that check, she motored home from the back of the field, which isn’t easy at Canterbury. Her second up record is three starts for a win and a 2nd and her record at 1400m is identical. She looks well suited here despite having to carry top weight. (2) Gitan was a sound run first up in a Highway. He ran 3rd after sitting three-wide throughout the race, so with a better run in transit here he can bounce back and turn the tables on (3) Cliff. (4) Prince of Thebes has no metro form to speak of but gets Bowman on, while the favourite (8) Nicconita has run consecutive 2nds in Highway Handicaps but the form is somewhat questionable.
RACE 3
Only the four runners to go around over the 2400m here. (6) Ombudsman shouldn’t be losing this. He stepped up to the 2400m last start and relished the extra distance, winning by near on 2L. McEvoy goes on today and he should win again. (5) Villardo is another horse that relished the step up to 2400m last start. He saluted at big odds in Melbourne and returns to Sydney here. That was his first win in Australia and he looks the biggest threat to the favourite.
RACE 4
Competitive race. There looks some decent speed on here with the likes of (8) Gresham and (9) La Chica Bella likely to be the frontrunners, with the possibility of (5) Coonawarra kicking up on the inside. I expect Gresham will take it up from barrier 2 and I expect him to bounce back today from two below par runs. The firm ground should be the key to him returning to his best and the drop to 54.5kg should also help. I suspect the speed should set it up for (7) Gaulois, who returns to Sydney after three runs in Melbourne. He hasn’t had anything go his way in recent starts and if Collett can give him a good run from barrier 8 it wouldn’t surprise me to see him launch over the top. La Chica Bella has given us some good results recently but I doubt she’ll find the lead here. She’ll have to sit outside Gresham and that might spoil her chances, but she is undefeated at the mile and Rachel King rides her well. (6) Dougie has his first Australian start. The Kiwi was a dominant winner over the mile in New Zealand last start but his best form has all come on wet ground so the firm track is some query.
Saver: (7) Gaulois $4.80 Crownbet
RACE 5
Wide open race. There looks a fair bit of speed on here with the likes of (1) Mad For Art, (2) Bombarding and (15) Oria all frontrunners, while (8) You Make Me Smile and the Kiwi (3) Our Malambo can race prominently too. That could set it up for something like (13) Bella Success coming from the back of the field, where she is bound to settle from barrier 11. She’s been around the mark recently and might appreciate getting onto firmer ground here. Avdulla goes on and if there’s as much speed on as there appears to be, she will be finishing hard. (9) Seaglass is first up with four trials under the belt. Kerrin McEvoy is a notable jockey booking for the Snowdens, which indicates she may be ready to go first up here at good odds. Drawn softly in barrier 2 and has won two from three at the distance. Blake Shinn actually rode Seaglass in a couple of trials but takes the ride on (10) Dancers for Brad Widdup here, another filly that he rode in a trial recently. Drawn barrier 1 – there may be something in that jockey booking and I wouldn’t let her go around at $17. Plenty of chances in this.
Value: (9) Seaglass $10 Crownbet
RACE 6
Only a few that really interest me here. The favourite (8) Seahampton can make it another one for Waller here after winning over this track and distance in good style last start. He started from barrier 9 on that occasion and starts from barrier 10 today so he’ll be trying to win in similar fashion. Shinn takes over from Clark and the move back to firm ground shouldn’t be an issue given he won dominantly on debut on Good ground. (3) Reiby Rampart earned a deserved win last start after going close in two runs prior to that. The win did come on very wet ground but she went close on Good ground three starts back so shouldn’t have any excuses here. She does, however, rise 4.5kg in weight from the win last start. (6) Cassadee resumes for a new stable here after 70 weeks off the track. She was showing some nice ability prior to her spell but you have to really question her condition after leaving the Waterhouse/Bott yard and so long off the track. (11) Sepoy Acheva has claims.
RACE 7
Competitive field with a few good horses resuming here. (6) Memes is one of those and she looks a nice chance at each way odds. She’s got two wins and two placings from four starts first up and has four wins from five starts at Randwick. She’s unbeaten over the track and distance. Drawn softly in barrier 2. There does look to be a lot of speed on here and she is typically a frontrunner, but she may have to camp behind the leaders here. Either way, she represents a bit of value in an open race. Another horse that’s first up is (5) Sir Plush for Jason Collett and Bjorn Baker. Baker’s stable seems to be finding form again after a lean run in town throughout the Winter. The wide draw is a bit problematic but he’s too good to ignore here. (8) Tactical Advantage is also first up. He’s trialled nicely on three occasions leading into today and gets Brenton Avdulla on board. Drawn well, light weight, good record at the track and a good record at the distance. (9) Easy Eddie won two starts back and then ran 3rd to the in-form Albumin last start. McEvoy goes on today and can be competitive again. Happy to take on the favourite (3) I Thought So who will need luck from barrier 1 and is yet to win on Good ground.
Also backing: (5) Sir Plush $8.50 Crownbet
RACE 8
Only two that interest me here but it’s a bit of a trappy race in that there’s a few horses that could bob up without surprising. (2) Bandipur ran out of his skin last start when trapped five-wide without cover throughout the race and still managed to run 3rd, beaten 1L. Third up, soft barrier draw and Bowman on. Looks hard to beat. (7) Junglized is an interesting runner and one that could be a bit of value at $8.00. It’s another Brad Widdup runner that’s first up from a spell with Blake Shinn on board and brings some reasonable metro form to the race from last prep. (1) Il Mio Destino is first up for the Kim Waugh stable and she has a knack of getting horses to improve for her. (8) Three Sheets has a good first up record and has won two from three at the track and distance but probably needs it wet to feature. (4) Single Bullet will be thereabouts.
Value: (7) Junglized $8.00 Crownbet
RACE 9
Huge field to finish the day. (1) Redoubled is knocking on the door with some good recent form. Barrier 1 isn’t necessarily ideal for him given he tends to get back and he goes up 2kg from last start as well. Although he has obvious claims, he looks about right around $4.00. (2) Onslaught went to Melbourne last start and gave them a belting. He returns to Sydney now and is third up and up to 1400m. I wouldn’t take too much notice of that Melbourne form but rather his consecutive wins in Sydney metro grade last prep. He’s good enough to win this but obviously has the wide barrier and big weight to overcome. (8) Sanctioned has had two trials leading into this and both were good. Bowman is on first up here and the blinkers go on again which is an interesting move. He’s only got the one career win next to his name but I’m expecting a big run today at double figure odds. (4) Kaonic showed all the promise in the world in his first prep but failed to deliver last campaign. Keep an eye on the market to see how the stable expect him to return. (7) Mr Tickets not hopeless at big odds.
Also backing: (2) Onslaught $8.50 Crownbet
TIP: (8) Sanctioned $10.00 crownbet / (2) Onslaught $8.50 crownbet
