Randwick Racing Tips for Saturday, April 22nd
Mon, 17/04/2017 - 4:19pm, tim_tips
The rescheduled Group 1 Sydney Cup is the feature race on an otherwise moderate card at Royal Randwick this weekend. The track is rated a Heavy 8 after more rain during the week and the rail is out 2m.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below!
RANDWICK RACING TIPS
Short priced favourite here in the form of DEBONAIRLY or Waterhouse and Bott but at the $1.75 quote I have to take it on today. It's not unusual to see a short priced Waterhouse favourite bite the dust after a good previous performance. Admittedly, her trial win and her first up win were both imperious but this is a step up in class as well as a Heavy track so I'll be sticking with THE MIGHTY FED who was dominant when winning last start at Warwick Farm on a Heavy track. His debut race is a strong form race and the track didn't suit him that day, so if he can reproduce his performance from last start he should give a good sight at $6.50. SILENCE and DARHAD are also both winning chances.
Tip: The Mighty Fed
This looks a competitive race with a few winning chances but it's hard to look past I THOUGHT SO who has two wins and a nose 2nd in the Gosford Guineas, which he really should have won if he ran straight. He has won a trial leading into this and his win from two starts ago was impressive, albeit in lower class than this. Carries the weight but his form is good enough to see him win here. Team Snowden holds a strong hand here with GIBRALTAR GIRL and FRANCE. Gibraltar Girl comes into this second up; the main concern with her is the heavy track, while France comes into this first up. TESSERA carries top weight of 61kg but McEvoy is a noticeable jockey booking and the horse has been gelded since we saw him last. He was running in much harder races previously so it will be interesting to see how he returns now that he's had the operation.
Tip: I Thought So
Exceptionally tough race with all seven runners holding genuine chances of winning, though I do think BLACK ON GOLD could be a bit of a false favourite having never placed on wet ground from three attempts. Going to stick with last start winner OKLAHOMA GIRL at $4.60 who was quite impressive when winning over this distance at Warwick Farm. I think she's probably still got a bit of improvement to come out of that win and the slight weight relief should offset the rise in class. Biggest danger could be THE PINNACLE at $6 who won at big odds for us last start at Newcastle over 1400m. That made it two 1400m wins on the trot and the step up to 1600m looks suitable. His time for the 1400m last start was pretty slick and he won on a Heavy track two starts ago so that's no concern.
Tip: Oklahoma Girl
Looks a nice race for RICHARD OF YORKE who is better suited back onto wet ground here. He absolutely bolted in two starts ago over this distance before running 2nd to Hans Holbein last start back onto a firm surface. The track will be heavy here but not bottomless which should suit him and I really don't think this is any tougher than what he's been facing in Melbourne. Gets in on the minimum, at a distance he's running very well at, on soft ground and with a top jockey on board. Hard to beat.
Tip: Richard Of Yorke (Best Bet)
Competitive little race for the Highway Handicap but pretty keen on SCHEDULE here who won well first up over 1300m at Scone. His trials leading into that win were also good - his first trial he won and the second trial he was untouched behind Up 'N' Rolling who trialled particularly well and should have won on Wednesday at Canterbury. The horse Schedule beat at Scone then came out and won its next start so the form has stacked up. McEvoy takes the ride and despite having a tricky barrier I think he's a good chance here. I'm terrified of the Kurt Goldman horse ONLY CHOICE who absolutely flew home on debut on a Heavy track before winning his last start at Orange. Whenever the stable bring a horse to the city for these races they are competitive and with Avdulla on board from the good gate I expect him to be right in the finish. ALOT LIKE HOME has won his past two on Heavy ground which reads well.
Quite keen on GRAND DREAMER here but mainly by default because I have serious concerns over some of the other rivals in this race. MONTAUK is first up from a let up and needs 2000m and a firm track so the $3.70 for him looks very short to my eye. MY PSYCHIATRIST was a decent run first up but I still think he needs another run and probably 2000m too. Most of the others are either stayers resuming and needing the run or plain out of form, which leaves GRAND DREAMER who comes up from Melbourne for Robert Smerdon. His wet record is outstanding, having placed in 12 of his 13 runs on wet ground. He improves quite significantly second up, having finished in the top 2 at three of his four starts, and his first up run at Ballarat was better than it reads on paper given he was blocked late. Has won four and placed seven more times from 13 starts at the distance, gets in with just 53kg and McEvoy rides. Plenty of boxes ticked!
Tip: Grand Dreamer
Excited to see NIETA return to the track and while I think she'll win, she looks pretty short to me at around $2.10. She is undefeated first up and absolutely bolted in first up last prep, though that was a lowly Class 2 at Wyong. She did progress to run 2nd in the Listed Starlight Stakes at the end of last prep, which rounded off a prep that included four wins. Her run that day was enormous after travelling three wide the trip, so her quality is undeniable. It's whether she will be able to carry 58.5kg first up against race-fit horses in this grade on a Heavy track that is the query, but she's had two trials and as aforementioned, excels when fresh. She's definitely the horse to beat, but the price is rock bottom. SUPER MAXI carries 4 consistent form on these wet tracks and with the weight relief here I expect him to give a big sight out front. The value could be HIGHLY GEARED who returned with a good win on Soft ground at Canberra. Wouldn't be ruling out SIR BACCHUS either, especially if they run along out front. He's good enough to win a race like this and goes well fresh.
The rescheduled Sydney Cup race from two weeks ago here and it's a bit hard to assess given we saw about six horses complete the two miles and the rest of them pulled up mid-race. Some now have different barrier draws to contend with, some have had a tough run, some have had an easy run, some have new jockeys.
I was keen to take on BIG DUKE at the $2.60 price originally and even though there is as much as $3.50 available today, I'll be taking him on nonce again. Everything lines up for him to win this, but the obvious query is the step up to two miles for the first time. He has Boss on board this time and draws barrier 2, but for a horse that isn't 100% to run two miles I'll be taking him on.
Keen to back POLARISATION, who was the actual winner of the no-race two weeks ago. He outstayed Penglai Pavilion and Chance To Dance, and was really strong in seeing out the two miles. The big plus for him today is the barrier draw. He drew barrier 11 when he won the no-race, but draws barrier 8 this time, while Penglai Pavilion drew barrier 6 last time but starts from barrier 11 today. The concern for mine with Polarisation is the fact we've seen him put in a good performance first up previously and then gone on to run poorly second up. If he runs up to what we saw first up, there's no reason he can't go very close again today. PENGLAI PAVILION typically runs well first up and that was the case in the no-race. He finished a close up third and it would be safe to assume he'll probably improve with that run under his belt. He clearly loves the distance and goes well on the wet ground, but the negative for him today is starting from barrier 11 instead of 6. He will go close. CHANCE TO DANCE can go well again after he finished 2nd in the no race. He draws perfectly in barrier 5 but the huge negative for him is Damian Lane off and Christian Reith on. I was originally keen on LIBRAN at eachway odds and there's no reason to jump off him. I think he's ready to show something and he ran 2nd in this race last year. If the track somehow gets to Soft rather than Heavy, he'll be in the mix. Waller was very bullish last time that Who Shot TheBarman would run in the top 3 here, he pretty well declared him to do so. He will certainly run the distance, and if he runs up to his Melbourne Cup 5th placing last Spring he will run top 3. The concern is his record at the track (0 wins from 12 starts) though many of those have been over unsuitable distances. You need to be pretty good to win with top weight, and this time he gets a horrible barrier. KINEMA the blowout.
Tip: Polarisation / Libran EW
Two I'll have something on here at decent odds. ROARING TO WIN bounced back to form last start on the wet track in a higher grade than this. He absolutely charged home once clear in the final 150m after settling last and despite the 6kg rise in weight here, he should be competitive on what will be another heavy track. $7.50 available. PIANISSIMO won first up at a big price which was also on a very wet track. He has a good second up record and his overall record suggests he goes much better on wet tracks than dry. He draws well here and gets 3kg off with the claim so with just 54.5kg on his back I'd expect him to go well here at $9.50. Backing both.
Tip: Roaring To Win / Pianissimo EW (Best Value)
Tough race to finish off with and not one I'm overly keen to bet into but I've got GRETNA narrowly on top. The change of tactics to go forward last start paid off so they'll go forward once again from barrier 10 today. Goes up 4kg in weight to 58kg which makes things harder but there isn't a great spread in the weights and she should be able to replicate her last start performance over the same distance and with the same track conditions. VIA NAPOLI should run a good race first up but the concern is whether this is just a touch short for her, while COUNTESS MARINOV gets a 1.5kg swing on Gretna from last start and can go well again.
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