Welcome to our horse racing preview for Mornington on Wednesday 13th September, where we have a nine-race card. The track has a come up a Soft 7 for racing today,and with further rain predicted there's a chance that could end up in the heavy range.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
Riverina Romance EW (Best Value) - R2
It's Time For Magic (Best Bet) - R6
Five first-starters in the field of 10 makes this a difficult way to start things off. There's been a strong betting move for one here and it's worth following the money given it's a first-starter out of the Darren Weir stable. REBEL ROSE has the breeding to suggest she will probably end up over more ground, but importantly, she has the breeding to suggest she will handle the wet ground. There's $6 available still and I think it's worth playing on an each way basis here. The short priced favourite is DIVINE MESSENGER who is on debut for Robert Smerdon after failing at her only start for Tony Gollan, which was in Group 3 company in Sydney. She won two trials leading into that race, and has again won a trial leading into today's race (which was on heavy ground) so the talent is obviously there. She'll be tough to beat. LATINO BABE finished 3rd behind Muraaqeb on debut and has trialled well leading into today's first up run, while BEQUEATHED also trialled well and should handle the wet track.
TIP: Rebel Rose EW
All eyes on the $1million filly LADY CARTIER on debut for Stanley/Oliver. She's bred very nicely but I have a question over whether she will handle the wet conditions. She won a Ballarat jumpout easily in the lead up to this and the booking of Oliver, along with the price tag, suggests she's going to be very competitive here. DENTAL has just had the one public trial leading into today where she ran 3rd behind Divine Messenger. She was beaten five lengths, but if Divine Messenger comes out and wins the first race, then it's a good sign that Dental can go well. MARGOT was beaten 4.5L on a soft track when resuming at Echuca. She'll need to improve to be winning but is in the right stable to do so. RIVERINA ROMANCE appeals at double figure odds. She ran 2nd to Al Passem on debut after covering plenty of ground in the run, and then failed in town at Caulfield. Resumes from a spell here on debut for the Hayes/Dabernig yard and her debut run was good enough to suggest she can feature. Include TAN TAT FLAME who comes out of that same Al Passem race on debut and has her first start for Tony McEvoy.
TIP: Lady Cartier / Riverina Romance EW (Best Value)
Small field but not a bad race. KILMACURRAGH has had the two runs back from a spell and now jumps sharply from 1400m to 2000m. He improved last start to run 2nd behind the promising Night's Watch, and his record on wet ground is terrific, with three top-two finishes from three starts. Now that he's fit, the step up to 2000m looks ideal, and he's been the best backed early this morning. But you can leave me out of backing him at $2.70. EUREKA STREET has won two of her three starts at this distance. Two starts ago she beat Spanish Reef (who then came out and ran 2nd to Samovare on the weekend), and last start absolutely bolted in with a big weight at Cranbourne on heavy ground. She'll probably lead from the inside barrier, and she looks to get plenty in her favour here. She's had the three runs over 2000m as opposed to Kilmacurragh making the sharp step up in trip, she's in winning form and will be able to hold the lead from the gate. She's also short enough but I'd rather be on her than Kilmacurragh. ANDREA MANTEGNA now gets out to a good price at $5. He's won two of his three starts this prep, and was caught three-wide the the trip at the other. He's won two of his three races on soft ground, including last start, and also won over 2400m in France so the trip is no concern. Will be ridden quiet from the widest barrier, but he looks to be flying for Weir and now appears value at the odds. Backing him and saving on Eureka Street.
TIP: Andrea Mantegna
With FALIKA here who didn't get much luck first up in a strong Saturday race behind the likes of Oregon's Day and Swampland. Drops back to midweek company now, always improves second up from a spell and has a great record on wet ground. Oliver booked for the ride, looks well placed. RED GATTEAU continues to race well and jump through the grades. Stepped up sharply in class last start and ran a good race for 3rd, despite covering plenty of ground and being held up briefly in the straight. Soft ground no problem and think he can go close again here. Happy to take on I AM THE DARK at the price with the 3kg apprentice on. Certainly gets conditions to suit here with the wet ground as he's a genuine wet tracker, so should go well but the price is too short for me. CUBAN BELLE can go well at double figure odds. She's undefeated at the track and tends to always need her first up run so don't be put off by her being beaten 7L on heavy ground last start.
If STREET SPUN can settle a touch closer today he rates well to win this. Has run well at his past five starts and gets conditions to suit here, with a 2kg weight swing on MARAUDAMISS from last start and a wet track. He's either had to go back from wide barriers in recent starts, or get caught wide like he did two starts ago, but if you look back to when he's drawn a good barrier, he's actually settled much closer to the speed. So from barrier 5 today, he shouldn't have to give them an impossible start like he did last time out. BLAZERS ran 3rd behind Maraudamiss and Street Spun last start after leading. Look for them to employ similar tactics today and he should be there for a long way. BIRDS OF TOKYO is a genuine wet tracker and the wetter the better for him. May end up outside the leader from barrier 9 and should also be there for a long way. Happy to take on Maraudamiss.
TIP: Street Spun
Pretty keen on Chris Waller's IT'S TIME FOR MAGIC here, because there's negatives I can find for every other runner in the race. This mare made her Australian debut last start when charging home late over the 1000m at Sandown, so the step up to 1200m looks ideal. She drops 4kg with the step up in grade, and her only win has come on wet ground so the conditions should suit. Oliver booked for the ride from barrier 4, she looks one of the better bets on the card. CHIAVARI was okay first up but generally goes much better first up than second up. Having said that, she's finished in the top two in six of her seven starts on soft ground. BRUGAL REWARD can improve, QUILATE is likely to need the run, and WASABI can improve significantly with a positive ride here. SMOKIN' BELLA hasn't gone well enough recently for me, CULLEMY'S DIAMOND outclassed.
TIP: It's Time For Magic (Best Bet)
LEVENDI looks a pretty smart type based on his debut win over 1200m at Ballarat. The form has stood up very well out of that race, with the 2nd and 3rd horses running 2nd and 3rd at their next start behind Royal Symphony (the Guineas favourite). They both then went on to win their next start after that. Levendi's debut win was on soft ground so no problems with the conditions, happy to take the short odds here at $2.50. MACTIER could be the value at $9. Also won nicely on debut at Bendigo, The form out of that race has also stood up somewhat, though not as strongly as Levendi's. Trailled well enough and can go well. BOWERMAN got his maiden win out of the way last start, though not in particularly impressive fashion. The stable do have high hopes for him but I would have liked to see him win a bit better than he did. Include KING MOMBASSA who comes here off a maiden win at Mildura, which may seem weak but it's a proven method of Weir's that brings plenty of success.
TIP: Levendi / Mactier EW
MOTOWN LIL won well first up at Sandown and I think we'll see the horse she beat come out and win Race 6. I was against her that day but she proved me wrong, but I will again be against her today. She's only placed once from four starts when second up, so I can't be taking $2.80. I'll instead be with HEAR THE CHANT who resumed with a good run to finish 2nd behind Fragonard at the Valley. She's undefeated second up and drops back to 1200m to 1000m, which shouldn't be a problem. Draws well, won her only start on wet ground, looks a major player and taking $4. LABUAN START should be thereabouts. JALAN JALAN was permanently sacked a long time ago, but she may just be in need of soft ground. She's never won on good ground from 12 starts, but has won both her starts on soft ground. ROCK 'N' GOLD and LORD BARRINGTON can be included at odds.
TIP: Hear The Chant
Clearly the most open race of the day. WIND FORCE should be able to find the lead from the wide gate here which is always an advantage at Mornington. He's been up forever but continues to race well in similar grade. Very well suited on soft ground given he's never won on good ground and his only two turf wins have been on soft tracks. He should be there for a long way and $6.50 is a reasonable price. There does look a few that can go forward though, so if the speed is really on it sets it up for DEMOLITION who resumed with a good win at Geelong. He'll go back from barrier 16 and will need the pace to be hot if he's going to be able to run over the top of them. THINK BABE and DIAMOND BARONESS both have claims first up but also could be looking for 1400m. HUNTING HILL comes off a solid win last start and can go well again.
TIP: Wind Force EW
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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