Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for midweek racing at Mornington on Wednesday, December 13th.
We have an eight-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail in the True position. It’s worth noting that Mornington typically favours those up on the speed.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
MORNINGTON RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 7 Above Authority
Best Value: Race 6 Super Mario
Race 1
CAPTAIN HARRY comes up awfully short here at $2. He brings the best form to the race – a 0.2L defeat to Peaceful State two starts ago before a 2.75L 3rd in a harder race last start – but the fact remains he’s a 10-start maiden who will get back and run on. He may well win but at that price I can’t have him. Interested in backing BROO BOSS at $4.80, who comes off a solid run first up at this track and distance when he finished well to run a narrow 3rd. He was first up at 1500m so he’s sure to come on from that run and if he can be close enough on the turn he can win. Also keen to be with the Waterhouse/Bott runner on debut, RAPIDO CHAPARRO, who trialled only fairly but is sure to be sent forward here. The way Waterhouse/Bott runners have performed in Melbourne over the Spring you can’t leave him out at $6.50.
TIP: Broo Boss / Rapido Chaparro EW
Race 2
Looks a nice race for ALNAAS who ahs been good in two career starts so far. Stormed home at Cranbourne last start and the step up in trip looks ideal. Will need to come from the back of the field once again here from barrier 6 in the small field, and it can be hard to make ground at Mornington, but she should be too good nonetheless. The value could be PICTURE US who debuts here with the blinkers on. His first trial was poor but he improved significantly at his most recent trial, going to the line under little pressure behind subsequent winner Netherfield. Wouldn’t hurt to have something on at $7.50. RAYMAX is first up here after going close on two occasions in its debut prep. Won it’s last trial leading into this race and has to be respected. No jockey nominated as of yet so perhaps being saved for another race?
TIP: Alnaas
Race 3
Another short-priced favourite here in a very small field with just the four runners going around. I’m with the shorty PREVAILING WINDS who comes off a good first up run in the same company at Sandown three weeks ago. With just the four runners he should be well and truly close enough on the turn and he won second up last preparation so it looks a very suitable race. CHALCIDIAN comes out of a stronger race behind Debonairly last start on a Heavy track where she was comfortably beaten, but her form before that race was acceptable. She looks the leader on paper here and at Mornington that is a big tick. STAR SILK will likely sit outside the leader and gets the blinkers on first time so isn’t without a chance, while PURELY ROYAL is struggling but it’s never a surprise to see the outsider of the small field win.
TIP: Prevailing Winds
Race 4
Competitive race and found it hard to split three hopes. FICA GAL is first up from a spell here and won her only trial leading into this, which was the fastest of the day. The horse she beat in that trial then came out and won first up at Moonee Valley last week, and given Fica Girl won first up last prep, she deserves a huge amount of respect at the $5 on offer. KEEP COURTING looks to have come back in good style. She won a trial very comfortably leading into her first up run here over the track and distance, where she was only beaten 0.8L. Given she has never placed first up, the narrow defeat indicates she’s come back well. She’s won second up previously so that suggests she improves significantly from her first up runs, so I’m expecting a big run here at $6. DIVERTENTE won well first up and won a midweek race in town in this grade last preparation so is definitely up to the grade. She will go to the front and be hard to run down. I’ll likely back both Fica Gal and Keep Couting, with a saver bet on Divertente.
TIP: Fica Gal / Keep Courting EW
Race 5
Interesting race with two of the more prominent horses in the market sure to get a long way back in running. SHE’S POPULAR is a horse I like and have backed in recent starts, and she has the ability to go on to better races than this, but from barrier 9 she’s going to be forced to go back, which at Mornington could be problematic. If the pattern of the day is permitting horses to run on, then I think she wins, but if it’s a struggle to make ground then she’ll have to be good. PARTY HOST is another that’ going to get a long way back from barrier 10, so despite recent good form and ‘flashing light’ runs, he may not get things to suit on this track. I’m keen to be with POP QUEEN who is trained at the track and has a win and a 2nd placing from her two starts over the track and distance. She was just plain last start, but she took a sit as opposed to leading as she did when winning here two starts ago. With Steph Thornton on board from barrier 1, I think they’re only intention will be to lead, and if she finds it comfortably, she’ll be hard to run down. I’ll back Pop Queen each way with a saver bet on She’s Popular.
TIP: Pop Queen EW
Race 6
Very tricky race and it would be no surprise to see a blowout result here. Might be best to play trifectas. CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE goes on top after a sound run in Saturday grade behind the talented Vinland last start. That was on a heavy track but he’s got good form on good ground and hopefully he can sit within striking distance from barrier 1. ROKDA KASBA gets the blinkers back on today after failing last start. Can feature from the good draw with the claim for Kersley. DREADED never does anything in his first two runs back from a spell but typically improves third up so I’d include him at huge odds. CASA FORTUNE was too bad to be true last start so can bounce back at $18. SUPER MARIO has a good record over 2000m. He won three starts ago before failing at 2400m before being dropped back to 1600m last start. Now back up to 2000m, can improve at big odds. BRANDO won nicely despite having no luck last start over track and distance and can feature again here.
TIP: Civil Disobedience / Super Mario EW
Race 7
Keen on Weir’s ABOVE AUTHORITY here who won dominantly second up two starts ago in easier grade before measuring up in harder grade last start at Sandown. She ran 3rd behind I’m A Princess, who was well in the market in a good race during the carnival, so that formline looks positive for a Wednesday race at this time of year. She draws well and the step up to 2000m suits. Happy enough with $4. The favourite is STREET SPUN who was running well in much harder races than this before breaking through in this grade last start. My concern is the drop back from 2400m to 2000m – it’s a tactic I am not a fan of, but she does get in well at the weights and has performed well over the distance previously. AURORA MISS next best. POPPIHOLLA should be getting close to showing something now.
TIP: Above Authority
Race 8
Interested in backing both TOY BOY and WIND FORCE here, who have been running against each other in some of their recent starts. TOY BOY is favourite first up from a small let-up, after winning his last start at Pakenham. Prior to that he motored home over this track and distance to run 2nd as a short-priced favourite, and his first up run was a 3rd placing behind Eurack, where Wind Force was 2nd. WIND FORCE is also a last-start winner, over 1200m at Moonee Valley. He gets a nice claim here for Fred Kersley and should roll straight to the front, which is no disadvantage here. He finished 5th behind Toy Boy two starts ago at Pakenham, but as aforementioned, finished ahead of him earlier in the prep at Sandown. He’ll have the advantage of a few lengths headstart at the home turn and may well be able to lead all the way. I’M TELLING YA did beat Wind Force two starts ago at Flemington, but Wind Force has a considerable weight swing here and I’m Telling Ya will get a long way back. Keeping I’M ABLAZE safe who has had a bit of money first up with Craig Williams taking the ride. VALDERRAMA the blowout first up.
TIP: Toy Boy / Wind Force EW
QUADDIE
3, 6, 9, 10
2, 3, 4, 8, 11, 13, 15
1, 8, 10
3, 5, 9, 12, 18
$100 = 23.8%
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