Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Friday night racing at Moonee Valley on November 17th.
We have an eight-race card under lights to look forward to, with a Good 4 track and the rail out 5m. It could pay to be up on pace tonight given how the track played a couple of weeks ago, and the rail shifting out should advantage frontrunners. We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
As you read, why not tune in to Episode 10 of the Before You Bet Racing Podcast? We recap the Melbourne Cup Carnival and preview a big weekend of racing ahead at Moonee Valley, Sandown and Ascot.
Best Bet: Race 2 Zoffany Rose
Best Value: Race 4 El Rada
Ordinary maiden to kick off proceedings here and I’ll be playing relatively wide to chase a bit of value. The first thing to mention is that the favourite PEARLE DE VERE is probably the best horse in the race and deserves to be favourite but from the wide draw I suspect they’ll go back, and with that in mind I don’t want to take the $2.50 on offer. Interested in having something on both INTEGRATED and PETRONAS. Integrated is a former Godolphin horse that did nothing in Sydney and has been transferred to new trainer Logan McGill. Importantly, he has the pace to lead or at least be right up on speed. There has been an early bit of money to suggest he may improve under the care of the new stable, so at $16 he could be worth a small bet. PETRONAS is another that can be right on the pace here from barrier 8. It’s placed in its last three races at Ararat, Cranbourne and Stawell but the horses it’s been beaten by actually aren’t terrible. Should run a good race on the speed and worth something at $10. MASIPAG should rail through from barrier 1 and be very competitive. MY BOY GREG next.
TIP: Integrated EW / Petronas EW
There’s only two I want to back here and at the odds we can back both. SLY ROMANCE drops hugely in grade here after racing in BM96 company at Flemington last start. Back to BM78 grade in what is a significantly inferior field. Carries 4kg more than the rest of the field but has a good record at the track and distance, draws well and should be going very close here at $4.40. ZOFFANY ROSE ran a big race behind Sherlock Holmes last start over 2500m, which followed a good win over 2400m two starts ago. She didn’t have the best of luck last start so from barrier 5 tonight, with that experience under her belt, she should be going close. She only carries 52kg with the 3kg claimer on board – I’d have preferred a senior jockey rather than the weight relief but at least she draws a good barrier. Backing both. CHERON WARRIOR next best.
TIP: Zoffany Rose (Best Bet)
Looks a very nice race for NATURE STRIP but I doubt he’s backable at $1.65. I think he’s a very good horse and I thought he’d go close in a race over the Flemington carnival that he was subsequently scratched from, so that would make him very hard to beat in this. If the track is favouring leaders, he’ll need a good proactive ride with the big weight, but he should just be too good. RIVERINA ROMANCE drops back from 1200m to 1000m after peaking on its run last start. She broke her maiden very impressively at Mornington two starts ago over the short trip. She’ll need a good ride from Oliver from barrier 8 given there’s only eight runners in the field. I expect they will push forward but there’s the risk of being caught wide. BANTER should lead and will be tough to run down.
TIP: Nature Strip
Competitive race but another two that I’m interested in backing at each way odds. The first is PENNINGTON who is on debut for the new stable after previously racing in country NSW. The form doesn’t look too flash for a race like this but Damian Lane is an eye-catching booking for Russell and Scott Cameron. Worth including at $16. The second at odds that looks a nice chance is EL RADA, who ran 2nd first up at Hamilton behind Falcool, who had been trialling very well before that win. I think we’ll see El Rada improve here second up and last preparation it did measure up in some similar races to this. $7 is a decent price. SPRIGHTLY LASS comes down from NSW where it has won both starts to date. Should bounce to the lead and be tough to run down, while FLYING SPARK is a short course specialist and is in terrific form. There’s no reason it can’t go close here at $14.
TIP: El Rada EW (Best Value) / Pennington EW
Very competitive 955m dash and once again I’ll be playing a bit wide. RUNSON is well and truly up to this grade if he were to reproduce his best form. He wasn’t at his best last prep, but he started $3.40 favourite in a Saturday sprint race at Flemington first up last prep, which gives an indication of his ability. He should speed forward to lead from barrier 3 and if the stable have got him back to his best, the $11 available will look like a steal. It’s hard to know where he’s at, but worth having a throw at the stumps. ESSENCE OF TERROR was one I was keen on first up at big odds and she ran 2nd. She can go well again here at $12 for a stable and jockey that are in form. She’s got a bit of a flat second up record, but she’s got a good record at the track and distance and is a decent each way bet again. CERTAIN ELLIE is another blowout chance to include first up, while SHOWPERO has been running in Saturday races in Adelaide and gets a gun run from the gate so rates as a leading chance. ROYALIC next best.
TIP: Runson EW / Essence of Terror EW
This is another tough one. SEVEN YEAR REWARD is undefeated from three starts and should get all the favours from barrier 1 here which will help him take another step up in grade. He tackles 1200m for the first time but he looks as if he can handle the rise in distance. No reason to jump off him tonight. I like the price about MOONLOVER at $6.50 who backed up a great first up run with a win t Mornington last start. Ethan Brown keeps the ride and so he gets in with just 54.5kg tonight. Needs to make the step up in grade but he’s returned in terrific form and won last start like he can measure up. HE’S A MORAL, CLEOPATRA’S GLORY and ACT OF VALOUR are others to include at good odds.
TIP: Seven Year Reward / Moonlover EW
There’s been some money for a few horses here but I’m sticking with the Gelagotis-trained SERENADE THE STARS who won on his Australian debut first up at Bendigo. He won two races in the UK over 2000m and 2400m, so you’d think he will only improve up in distance at his second run back from a spell here. Carries a big weight but gets a good barrier draw to help. GET THE PICTURE has had three runs back from a spell now and is edging closer to a win. He just peaked on his run last start over this track and distance, but he now stays at the 2000m with the run under his belt and should go well at double figure odds here. HIGHGATE HILL and BARRY THE BAPTIST others worth including.
TIP: Serenade The Stars / Get The Picture EW
Two at big odds I’ll back to end the night here. The first is HOLLYWOOD GIRL at $23. She won nicely two starts ago before running 7th last start at this track when badly held up in the concluding stages of the race. Has the ability to position close to the speed from barrier 2 if they want, and carries just 52kg after the claim. Definitely not the worst in the field and over the odds. I’ll also stick with ASTRO CASTRO after a run that was too bad to be true at Flemington last week. The market told us pre-race that it wouldn’t win and it ran according to that drift, but there has been an early trail of money to suggest it can bounce back tonight. This horse was well-backed when winning two starts ago so the money is normally right with him. Needs a good ride from barrier 13 but I’ll take the $21. JET EXPRESS and MR CHURCHILL are others at big odds worth including in a race where the favourites might be worth taking on.
TIP: Astro Castro EW / Hollywood Girl EW
3, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12
1, 8, 10, 11, 16
6, 9, 12, 14
6, 9, 10, 12, 16
$100 = 16.66%
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