Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Happy Valley in Hong Kong on Wednesday, July 4th.
We have an eight-race card on the C+ course at the Valley (rail in the outside position). Typically that means inside barriers and up on speed are the places to be.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below.
Best Bet: Race 7 #1 Friends Of Ka Ying
Best Value: Race 2 #10 Spinning Dancer EW
Realaly poor race to start things off here so won’t be betting. (10) Carry To Win for Joao Moreira and (11) King’s Steed are about the only two I could entertain backing, but with Eddy Lai on the latter, that basically becomes a pen job. No need to get involved.
TIP: No Bet
Even sort of race with little standing out but there is two I’ll be backing. Purton jumps back aboard (7) Starlit Knight after steering him to victory in lower class three starts ago. Since then he’s put in two reasonable performances and has had things against him in both starts. Wasn’t far away last start and gets Purton taking over from Eddy Lai, so can go close. The value in the race could be (10) Spinning Dancer at $21. He should get the box seat from barrier 5 in a slowly run race and he ran a close-up 3rd four starts ago under similar conditions. In his following three starts he drew barrier 1, then copped a severe check, and last start was caught three-wide without cover. Better draw and a better run tonight should see him improve.
The barrier statistics for 1200m races on the C+ course at the Valley are quite interesting. Barrier 1 has had 20 wins from 69 races this season, which is 13 more than any other barrier. (5) Dr Race starts from barrier 1 here and has been running fairly of late. He won over 1000m here four starts ago and has run 4th on two occasions over this track and distance since then, despite drawing barriers 12 and 10 respectively. Barrier 1 tonight means he’s a decent each way bet at $9.
Another 1200m race here and that means barrier 1 is the one to go looking for. (11) Applause gets the gun gate tonight and he was only beaten a short margin over this track and distance two starts ago when he started from the inside gate. He’ll be in the finish once again tonight. (6) Noble Delight draws awkwardly in barrier 9 but is still pretty fresh this campaign and won well last start. Moreira takes the ride on (5) Amazing Race for Casper Fownes and gets the good run from barrier 3.
(8) Golden Kid broke through for another win last start after some consistently good efforts. He goes up 2.5kg in weight tonight (which makes a big difference in HK) but he might be able to sneak another win here from the good draw. It looks a slowly run race on paper and that should allow him to camp in the box seat and pounce late. Moreira jumps on (6) Midnite Promise for Frankie Lor which is an interesting move, while (3) Garlic Yeah returns to Happy Valley and can feature in the finish but will need luck and a good ride from Matthew Poon.
Barrier 1 all important but (9) Joy Master has shown absolutely nothing in recent starts and you couldn’t possibly make a case for him here. Pace should be reasonable here with (1) Prince Harmony coming across from the wide gate, so horses should be able to run on. (2) Shanghai Master gets his chance if that happens. Three starts ago he won over track and distance and put in another good effort last start behind Fast Most Furious. Purton gets on board tonight and he looks a big chance. (12) Super Leader draws well and went close last start behind Super Hoppy, who won twice in a row to frank the form. Looks a good chance again tonight, while (11) Zero Hedge draws much more favourably than last start and must be considered.
Best bet of the night here with (1) Friends Of Ka Ying who has been knocking on the door and gets absolutely every chance from barrier 1 tonight. He’s settled a long way back in recent starts but from the inside draw he can box seat, which means he’ll be much closer on the turn having had a much softer run. With (9) Lucky Time scratched, he looks very hard to beat.
(1) Calculation appears hard to beat here but (8) Winning Faith has won three from four over this track and distance and despite barrier 12, can run a big race again tonight. The value could be (3) Star Majestic who has drawn well in barrier 3 and returns to his pet track and distance. He won here four starts ago, taking his record over this track and distance to 18 starts for seven wins and two placings. Solid chance at $13. (9) Pretty Bauhinia is another track specialist with claims.
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