There are two Group 1's in Australia this Saturday, May 19th, with the Goodwood Handicap at Morphettville and the Doomben Cup at Doomben! Check out our feature race previews with betting tips below!
Morphettville Race 7 – Group 1 Goodwood Handicap – 1200m
The final Group 1 of the Adelaide carnival here with a very solid field of sprinters set to line up.
TRENDS
There’s been plenty of commentary about the hoodoo Vega Magic has to overcome to win this, with no horse having won this race back-to-back for more than 100 years. Just one horse in the past 35 years has won with anything near the 59kg Vega Magic will lump on Saturday, that being Takeover Target in 2009 when he carried 58.5kg to victory. The past six winners of this race have all carried 56kg-57kg. With the big field, I wouldn’t be too concerned about wide barrier draws. We only have to go back to 2014 (Smokin’ Joey) and 2015 (Flamberge) to find two horses that won from double-digit barrier draws and at big odds too.
TRACK CONDITIONS
The track is rated a Soft 6 at the time of writing, but we witnessed a huge downpour in Adelaide on Friday night and there is more rain predicted on Saturday. It would therefore be no surprise to see the track rated in the Heavy range come race time. Definitely aim for wet conditions.
KEY CHANCES
The favourite is (1) Vega Magic, who returns for the first time since finishing down the track in the Darley Classic in November. At his absolute best, he’s the best sprinter in this field; I doubt there’s much argument there. He’s undefeated on wet ground and is bred to swim so the wet track won’t necessarily trouble him, but it remains a big ask to carry 59kg first up from a spell (which was extended due to injury) on a bog track. He’s only had the one public trial leading into this and although I’m sure the stable will have him near top fitness, it’s certainly a big ask. Oliver jumps off Secret Agenda to ride him and the wide draw if probably offset by the wet track, but I’m not surprised to see him drift from $2.60 to $3.10 early. I love the horse, but I’ll be playing around him today.
I really think the Weir camp will have (6) Voodoo Lad ready to win this first up from a spell. Prior to Vega Magic winning first up last year, the records showed that it was virtually impossible to win fresh from a spell. We might see Voodoo Lad become the second horse in as many years to win first up. From six starts first up, he’s won four and ran 2nd on the other two occasions. In his past two first up runs, he’s run 2nd to Redkirk Warrior in the Newmarket Handicap, before winning in G3 company over 1100m at the start of last prep. The wet ground won’t concern him, but barrier 1 might. It’s not an ideal barrier for him in any case, let alone when the track will be wet. Ben Allen also doesn’t instil a great amount of confidence in me. Still, I think the $10 is a price that is worth having something on.
(5) Viddora has been $10 into $7.50 in early markets. She was only fair first up in G3 company over 1100m, before being scratched in the Sangster Stakes with swelling in a leg. The stable has said she’s 100% now and flying, but I always have big concerns backing horses coming off any sort of setback. The positives are she’s a Group 1 winner already, she handles the wet and barrier 11 is ideal for her; she’ll sit three-wide with cover in the second half of the field and should have every chance. If you want to be really nit-picky, you could certainly pick holes in her form. She won a B-grade Group 1 in WA and followed that by beating some C-graders on the Gold Coast. The form out of her first up run was somewhat franked with Secret Agenda running 2nd to Shoals, but in truth, Shoals smoked the lot of them. Definite winning chance but I haven’t got her on top.
(3) Thronum is one that will relish the ground. He’s had six starts on wet ground for three wins and three placings. He comes into this race fresh off a 2nd placing to Hellbent in the G1 William Reid Stakes and with 57 days since that run, he’ll be pretty fresh for this, which should suit him given he’s undefeated from three first up runs. Drawn nicely in barrier 5, which should see him positioned right up on the speed (likely leading). He might be the unfancied one of the stable’s runners, but I’ll definitely have something on at $11.
In terms of value chances, there’s a handful that could win without surprising. (8) Super Cash was given absolutely no hope first up in the Sangster, going to the line untested. Her first up record is significantly better than her second up record, but she hardly had a hard hit-out first up, so with the good draw and a jockey change today, she could feature. (13) Flamberge gets the blinkers back on today and it wasn’t long ago that he fought out the finish with Super Cash and Merchant Navy. He’s undefeated on Heavy ground and has two wins on Soft ground too, as well as two wins from three starts at this track and distance. You have to go back 20 starts to find the last time he carried 54kg! (19) Mica Lil is a completely different horse this prep and certainly isn’t the worst hope at 30/1, while last-start $151 winner (17) I’ll Have A Bit seems to relish wet ground and has minor claims once again.
SELECTIONS
I’ll be backing (6) Voodoo Lad, (3) Thronum and (8) Super Cash.
1st (6) VOODOO LAD
2nd (3) THRONUM
3rd (8) SUPER CASH
4th (5) VIDDORA
Doomben Race 8 – Group 1 Doomben Cup – 2000m
The Group 1 Doomben Cup over 2000m sees a field of 12 line up.
TRENDS
Given this is a weight-for-age contest and not a handicap, it’s hard to draw any conclusions on past trends. The Hollindale Stakes is a typically strong form reference for this race, or at least is a popular lead up option for recent winners, with six of the past nine Doomben Cup winners coming through that race. Eight of the 12 runners today had their last start in the Hollindale Stakes – (3) Ambitious, (8) Life Less Ordinary, (10) Tradesman and (13) Abbey Marie are the four that took alternate routes here.
TRACK CONDITIONS
Doomben is currently a Good 4 and with a forecast of sunny weather in Brisbane, it should remain that way, or be upgraded to a Good 3. The rail moves to the 2m position – I’d suggest horses coming from the second half of the field might struggle to make ground, especially due to the lack of pace on paper here.
SPEED
There is no obvious leader engaged here apart from possibly (4) Tom Melbourne, who found himself in front in the Hollindale Stakes last start and may do so again today. With that in mind, I’d expect to see (12) Oregon’s Day right up on the speed here; I’d be surprised if she wasn’t in the first four. Similar could be said about (10) Tradesman, who has the ability to position on speed. Outside of that, we have a field of horses that are typically ridden cold in search of cover. It will be interesting to see the tactics on (2) Comin’ Through, who will start from barrier 11.
KEY CHANCES
After going back and forth, I’ve eventually ended up with the favourite (12) Oregon’s Day on top after her dominant win in the Hollindale Stakes last start. She didn’t have everything go her way but she still produced a dominant turn of foot to beat a number of these runners relatively comfortably. As mentioned above, from barrier 2 I’d expect her to be right up on the pace, and if it comes down to a sit-sprint then she will likely prove too good again. She’s got plenty in her favour today and based on the speedmap, I’m not surprised she’s been well supported in early markets. She’s currently a $4.20 chance and she will start shorter than that come jump time, in my opinion.
Chris Waller has six of the 12 runners in the field and you could make a legitimate case for four or five of those. Of his runners, I think (2) Comin’ Through is the one that brings the most genuine Group 1 form to the race. He ran 2nd to Happy Clapper in the Doncaster and was then beaten just 5.4L behind Winx (with original Doomben Cup favourite Gailo Chop beaten 3.8L). He started the $3 favourite in the Hollindale Stakes but was murdered by Robbie Fradd, caught three-wide from barrier 4. He’s drawn poorly here but regular jockey Michael Walker jumps back aboard which is a big plus. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him ridden forward, but it’s rare that Waller does that from a wide barrier. If you forgive him for his run last start, then he looks well and truly over the odds at $10 and I’ll be having something on him for that reason.
(7) Satono Rasen is a Japanese import having his third start for Waller. His run in the Hollindale was very good and he looks primed to run another bold race third up from a spell here. Unlike most other runners, this horse is relatively fresh in his campaign. He’s drawn well in barrier 4 and Schofield taking the ride is a slight hint if you look at the other jockeys riding Waller horses here.
(8) Life Less Ordinary has always promised plenty but prior to this campaign had failed to deliver. He’s finally started to show what he’s all about in his past two starts, winning both by a combined 6.3L. Granted, this is a much tougher race than what he’s been facing, but he’s finally got some wins on the board and is capable of causing an upset here.
I’m prepared to take on (3) Ambitious today. He ran a blinder behind Almandin in the G1 Tancred Stakes over 2400m before being beaten 12L by Winx last start. He lost three of his four plates in running so that’s one possible reason for his poor showing, but I can’t back him here based on that last run. (4) Tom Melbourne once again gets his chance but he’s gone far too long without winning for me to even consider backing him. Others have him covered. (10) Tradedsman comes off a dominant win at Warrnambool, which was his third start for new trainer Darren Weir. Up to Group 1 WFA company is a huge step up in class and even though I’ve got a good opinion of the horse, I’ll be betting around him today. The good draw helps him, though.
(11) Egg Tart was luckless in the Hollindale and isn’t without claims
SELECTIONS
I’ll be backing the favourite (12) Oregon’s Day at $4.20 and (2) Comin’ Through at $10.
1st (12) OREGON’S DAY
2nd (2) COMIN’ THROUGH
3rd (8) LIFE LESS ORDINARY
4th SATONO RASE
