Gold Coast Racing Tips for Magic Millions Day

Fri, 12/01/2018 - 7:22pm, tim_tips

Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at the Gold Coast for Magic Millions Day on Saturday, January 13th.

We have a nine-race card highlighted by the Magic Millions 2YO Classic, but the whole program is stacked full of quality races.

The track is rated a Good 4 and typically plays very fairly to all runners. We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card, as well as our podcast preview for you below.

GOLD COAST RACING TIPS

Best Bet: Race 9 Viddora

Best Value: Race 2 Lomazza EW / Not Surprising EW

 

Race 1

DINNIGAN goes on top here but she is very, very short at $1.70 and I wouldn’t be jumping in at those odds. The form out of her two races so far this prep has been god, with a runner-up finish behind Kissing Game first up (who then ran 2nd to Sasso Corbaro) followed by a runner-up finish behind Pierata last start. However, I would say that she was perhaps a touch flattered last start by the Doomben track. She led and railed like a greyhound, and the Doomben track has been particularly favourable to on-pacers in recent weeks. The tempo of this race also looks much stronger than her last race, so there’s enough there to suggest the $1.70 is rock bottom odds. EPIC RANT is an interesting runner first up from a spell, having switched stables from Waterhouse/Bott to Michael Costa who is based here at the Gold Coast. He’s been gelded in his time off and his trial behind Perfect Dare was fairly good. $35 is a big price. LOVE AND ROCK IT is also first up and has trialled well. The barrier hurts but he can go well. PROBLEM SOLVER is first up with two trials under the belt and will push forward. On exposed form he’d need to have improved but Ryan/Fradd is a strong combination. OUR NETBANK has Jamie Kah aboard for Tony Gollan, and has gone close in two career starts at Doomben and Gold Coast.

TIP: Dinnigan / Epic Rant EW

 

Race 2

Once again a huge field and a wide open market. I’m going to have a throw at the stumps here with two at big odds – the two Kris Lees runners. The first is LOMAZZO, which comes up $17. Looks a bit of a non-winner with just two wins from 21 starts but the form out of its last start has turned out to be very good. He was beaten 6L by Uptown Lad, but was never really clear in the straight so the run was fairly inconclusive. Uptown Lad has since won twice in town. Has had a short break coming into this but has trialled twice, winning the latest one. Barrier 1, Damien Oliver, both ticks. The stablemate NOT SURPRISING is first up from a spell here, also with two trials under the belt, but both trials have been very, very quiet. I think they’ve actually been very good, the horse wasn’t let off the bridle at any stage and cruised to the line in both despite travelling wide throughout. Brenton Avdulla is a strong booking and the horse won first up last preparation. $31 is a good price. HE’S A MORAL brings the right sort of form from Melbourne but when Weir travels them to Queensland they can sometimes tend to go backwards. SUGGAN BUGGAN is running consistently well but has had his chance to win in recent starts. ONE GOLDEN DAY is going well but Ben Currie has hit a bit of a flat spot. With that said, barrier 6 and Blake Shinn are both positives. ZAFINA has form behind Samadoubt which is good for a race like this.

TIP: Lomazzo EW / Not Surprising EW (Best Value)

CrownBet Promotion

 

Race 3

Nice race. UPSTART PRIDE goes on top at a good price. If you put a line through his run two starts ago his form this prep is good, and the form from the races he’s competed in has stood up. Gets a big jockey change today with Blake Shinn replacing Boris Thornton. Draws well, loves this track, should run well at $9. I’M A RIPPA looks a decent price at $13. Possibly just had to do a bit too much work last start but it was a hot race and I really like the booking of Stephen Baster here given it is a frontrunner. Baster on leaders is money, and the win two starts ago was dominant. GLENDARA could be the blowout at $31. The horse looks to have returned in nice order this prep. Trialled well leading into its first up run and hasn’t been far away in either start. Was beaten just 2L by Care To Think last start and has a good third up record so isn’t out of this. HAVASAY, SIEGFRIED, BOURBON ROAD, MISHANI EL LOBO and NATURAL BLACK all others with chances.

TIP: Upstart Pride EW / I’m A Rippa EW

 

Race 4

I’d think this is a two-horse race on exposed form, but the preparations for both favourites are hardly ideal leading into a 2200m race. SEDANZER should be undefeated this preparation and gets in very well here with 54kg. Tim Clark takes over from Rachel King and on her form this prep she deserves to be favourite. The negative is that she’s had two runs over 1600m leading into this race over 2200m. A 600m step up in trip is hardly ideal. With that said, the form from her last start at Gosford has already been franked through Positive Problems winning at Randwick and if she handles the trip then she’s probably your winner. I’d rather be with PAYROLL, however, because I think she’s better suited to the 2200m. She’s another that makes the sharp step up in trip. She won over 1700m last start, but at least she’s raced over 2000m earlier this preparation in Group 2 company, where she ran 2nd to Savapinski. She also ran 3rd in this race last year behind Stratum Star. Richard Laming has this mare flying and I’m less worried about the trip with her. The only query is some word going around about her possibly having a lameness issue, but she’ll be scratched if that’s the case in the morning. ALL TOO HUYING could be a value chance dropping down significantly in weight.

TIP: Payroll

Palmerbet Promotion

 

Race 5

Interesting little race for the fillies and mares. I’ve got GLOBAL GLAMOUR on top purely because I think she’s got a distinct class edge on the rest of the field. This is a Group 1 winning mare who won a Group 2 during the Spring carnival first up last preparation. This field is nowhere near as good as the one she beat, and despite carrying 60.5kg, I think she’ll just be too good. She should roll to the front from barrier 10 and if she’s at her best, they’ll struggle to run her down. I think there’s only two real chances of beating her. ECKSTEIN went as close as you can get to winning a Group 1 during the Spring when she finished 2nd in the Myer Classic. That was over 1600m so the 1300m is a slight query. She was very poor last start but she’s never good when she’s fresh from a break. She’s won two from three when second up, however, so expect very sharp improvement from her here. MERRIEST is another that really improves from her first up run to her second up run. She was just fair first up, but she put in a similar performance first up last prep before winning second up, taking her second up record to three wins from four starts. Barrier 4 should see her get a lovely run and she could be the value. PRETTY FAST has won four on the trot this prep but she’s been tackling much weaker company than this. I wouldn’t rule her out because I have huge respect for the Snowden stable, but she’d need to go to another level today.

TIP: Global Glamour / Merriest EW


Race 6

Hard to go past CARE TO THINK who deserves favouritism here, but we’re going to need some ride from barrier 19 to get him home. His win last start at Doomben was quite incredible, where he was held up hopelessly behind horses before bursting through to score. He looks destined for better races. The two at value in the race could be OZI CHOICE and OAK DOOR. Ozi Choice has been beating up on weaker opposition in Melbourne but when Weir gets these horses winning they generally continue to do so. He’ll go forward from the barrier and try to run them off their feet, and I won’t be letting him go around $11 without something on. Oak Door was very good first up when just nabbed on the line by Stellar Collision over 1200m at Caulfield. It was a very good effort considering he was pestered most of the race, and his record at 1400m is particularly good. Blinkers off second up today, expecting him to run a good race. CRACK ME UP will get the run of the race and should be competitive, ARBEITSAM needs to improve, while LUCKY HUSSLER is sure to have been aimed at this race all along and gets the blinkers back on.

TIP: Care To Think / Ozi Choice EW

Ladbrokes Magic Millions Promotion

 

Race 7

PIERATA on top here after a dominant win last start, which really stamped him as a serious horse. He’s looked every part the real deal this preparation, and despite some having concerns about barrier 1, I’d rather be there than out in the carpark. If the gaps come, I expect he’ll shoot through and prove the classier animal. The value could be CALCULATED for Chris Waller and Hugh Bowman. He’s had a strange preparation and hasn’t quite delivered on the promise he showed last prep, but there’s every chance this race has been the target all along. He hasn’t been given any chance in either start this prep – first up he actually ran very well over an unsuitable distance, and second up he was wide without cover the whole race. Up to 1400m should really suit him here and Bowman takes over. I think he’s over the odds at $16. SASSO COBBARO was dominant last start in Sydney, making it two from two in convincing style this campaign. Has to be a chance here. BEL SONIC and GOODFELLA others with chances.

TIP: Pierata / Calculated EW

 

Race 8

They’ll go like the clappers in the 2YO Classic here! We’ve seen three outstanding 2YO’s stamp their credentials for this race, and we finally get to see them clash here. I’ve ended up with SUNLIGHT on top. This filly has always had a decent spruik on her, starting favourite on debut at Flemington back in October when she finished 3rd. She was then sent out for a spell and returned with a blistering win over 900m at this track, which she then followed with an equally impressive win over 1100m last week. She steps up to 1200m now on the quick back-up, neither of which look to be an issue. I really like the fact she’s had two runs at the track and has won both dominantly, and I’m a huge fan of Tony McEvoy as a trainer. He’s proven with 2YO’s and has obviously had her set for this for a long time. From barrier 15 I suspect she will either come across and lead, or come across and take a sit just off Ef Troop. EF TROOP was also incredibly impressive when bolting in at Doomben last start. There’s some query over the strength of that race given there was just five runners engaged and he was always going to get a soft lead, but he still accelerated away in terrific style. From barrier 18 he’ll come across and either lead or sit outside Sunlight. JONKER is the third major player, and he looks to take a sit behind the speed from barrier 3. He was very, very impressive when winning the Wyong Magic Millions race, settling outside the leader before bolting in to win by more than 4L. Hugh Bowman takes over for today’s race, and they’ve already said they’ll look to take a sit behind the other two. Some questions over that Wyong race given the second horse since came out and did nothing. In terms of value outside those three, NOMOTHAJ could be the forgotten horse at $11. She was the filly that beat Sunlight on debut at Flemington, and like the favourite, was put away for a spell immediately. She’s first up for this race so hasn’t had the benefit of a couple of races leading into this, but she’s had two trials in Sydney and gets the blinkers on for the first time here. The concern would be her coming into this first up from a spell, especially given we’re expecting a very high-pressure race, but I also trust David Hayes to know what he’s doing with 2YO’s! He’s said he expects her to be an Autumn filly (Blue Diamond?) so perhaps she is being set for that as her grand final. MERYL was a good winner at Doomben last start and gets a nice run here, could be a blowout chance. BONDI can improve from last start.

TIP: Sunlight / Nomothaj EW

 

Race 9

I just can’t see how they beat VIDDORA here? She is probably the only genuine Group 1 calibre horse in the race, is coming off a Group 1 win, and prior to that was mixing it with the best sprinters in the country. There’s no She Will Reign, Hey Doc or In Her Time in this field. This is a big drop in class on what she’s been running against all preparation, and you could make a case that she should have won both the Moir and the Manikato, as well as the Winterbottom. If she’s at her best, she just wins this and the $2.50 is almost too good to be true. EGYPTIAN SYMBOL looks the logical danger after a sound first up win, while SNITZKRAFT and MURT THE FLIRT could be the value runners in the race.

TIP: Viddora (Best Bet)

 

_ _ _

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