Caulfield Racing Tips for Saturday, September 1st

August 31st 2018, 4:44pm, By: tim_tips

Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, September 1st, featuring the Group 1 Memsie Stakes.

We have nine races on a Good 4 track and despite there being a little bit of rain predicted, I think the track will remain in the Good range for Saturday.

We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below. You can also tune in to Episode 49 of the Before You Bet Podcast, featuring previews of every feature race across Caulfield and Randwick!

CAULFIELD RACING TIPS

Best Bet: Race 1 #3 Jaameh

Best Value: Race 9 #3 Prussian Vixen

 

RACE 1

These staying races don’t particularly interest me, especially to kick off the program, but it must be said that the favourite (3) Jaameh looks very hard to beat. He’s won two of his three Australian starts to date, including last start over 2500m at Flemington. Slight drop back in trip to 2400m today but that’s not a big concern. The stable have touted him as a pretty exciting horse since he arrived in Australia and on the back of that convincing win last start, he looks the one they all have to beat given he’s still only third up. Drawn well, weighted to win and unlike several horses in this field, he looks open to further improvement on what we’ve seen. (2) High Church was beaten 7.75L by Jaameh last start but was first up off a five-week break. He’s got a good record at the distance and has won his only start over the 2400m at Caulfied. Should run better today. His stablemate (4) Tall Ship has had four runs back from a spell and now steps up to 2400m, a distance he’s finished top two in at all three starts. The concern is his record at the track (zero placings from five starts) but he looks suited today. Darren Weir did say he doubted any of his three chances could win, so I’m pretty keen on Jaameh to kick things off.

 

RACE 2

Nearly an impossible race to work out. There looks to be plenty of speed on here and that could set things up for something like (3) Oberland coming from the back of the field. He ran very well last start to get within half-a-length of the winner. That was over 1100m at this track, where he drew nearly an identical barrier and carried the same weight as he does today. Third up now, if he gets the speed on and a decent run in transit, he’ll be motoring home late. I’d be having something on each way at $8.50. (2) Parwan Prince is one of the horses that will be charging forward to take up a position near the lead. He’s won three of his five races this prep and has run 2nd in the other two starts. The form out of his races is turning out to be quite good, with a horse he beat two starts ago winning pretty easily at Sandown on Wednesday. If he can get across from barrier 14 without spending too much petrol, he could run a very bold race at $15. (10) Holbein is first up and is another horse that will land on the speed from barrier 1. He’s won three of his six career starts and could be up to better races than a BM78 like this. Whether he will be able to absorb the pressure up front first up and still find enough to win is the query. (16) Lady Of Flanders is flying, having won both starts this prep. She did it tough last start, sitting three-wide without cover. Prior to that she won first up at this track and distance. She takes on the boys today but she looks to get a nice run from the barrier and it’d be no shock to see her win again. (18) Grey Shadow is another talented mare resuming today. She needs one more scratching to gain a run but if she does she will give a good sight, while (19) Raspberry Rose was luckless first up when held up the entire straight. She needs two more scratchings to gain a run, but looks a blowout chance.

TIP:

(3) Oberland
$8.50

BET NOW AT BetEasy

Value: (2) Parwan Prince $15 BetEasy

 

RACE 3

Pretty keen on (2) Mrs Gardenia each way here, though the booking of Dean Yendall slightly throws me off given Damian Lane is booked for the stablemate (9) Bellaria. However, Weir said Bellaria will be scratched from this race and saved for Geelong on Sunday. Mrs Gardenia won first up over 1200m last prep and tackles the 1400m first up today. She draws barrier 1 and gets in relatively well at the weights. I think she’s a pretty good mare and I don’t think there’s many of her rivals suited in this race, so each way she looks a good bet around the $7.00 mark. (1) Samovare is the class horse in the race and carries all the weight as a result of that. She’s tasked with carrying4.5kg more than her nearest rival but that may not stop her from winning. First up last prep she ran 2nd in Group 3 company to Silent Sedition over this track and distance. With the big weight and the wide draw, it will be interesting to see if they go forward or ride her conservatively. It’s been a while since she won but her class should see her be very competitive here. I’d expect (6) Istria to bounce back after a disappointing run in Sydney last start. Her first up effort was much better and if she repeated that, she’d be a winning chance. (3) Soho Ruby looks the blowout chance.

 

RACE 4

Three main chances that stand out here. (9) Night’s Watch was terrific first up behind Theanswermyfriend. He did everything but put his nose in front. He’s won his only start at this track but it was over 2000m and although he’s won second up previously, the slight concern is whether he’s now looking for further than 1400m. He probably is, but he might still be good enough to round these up. I think he deserves to be favourite but $2.20 looks short enough given that distance query, his racing pattern and the rail being out 6m. (12) Muraaqeb ran well first up when beaten 2L by Osbourne Bulls over 1200m in Listed grade. The 1400m looks a positive second up here but he’ll need a bit of luck and a good ride from barrier 2. The clear value looks to be (8) Willi Willi who is first up. He’s got a win and a 2nd placing from three previous first up runs and has a reasonable record at the distance too. He ran 2nd over this distance first up last prep and although he’s another one that could be looking for further, I expect a good run fresh here with Williams on board.

TIP:

(9) Night's Watch
$2.20

BET NOW AT BetEasy

Value: (8) Willi Willi $13 Sportsbet

 

RACE 5

The horse best suited by the distance of this race is the favourite (8) Call Me Handsome. He is rock-hard fit and meets several horses that are early in their preparation and looking for longer. His run last start over 1600m was huge, beaten just a length after sitting three-wide the trip. Prior to that he won over 1600m at Moonee Valley. Jockey change today with Craig Williams taking the reins and from barrier 5 he should be able to enjoy a good run. Looks hard to beat once again. (11) Sin To Win looks a blowout chance at around $34. We last saw him winning over the 3200m trip at Flemington but he’s got a good fresh record and a good record at Caulfield so with the good draw, he might run a cheeky race. (12) Miss Admiration has just won the one race from 14 starts but that did come second up, just like she is today. Her first up run over the mile at Moonee Valley was very good. That was the same race that Call Me Handsome ran in, and she finished ahead of him. I think with a softer run, he can turn the tables on this mare, but I expect her to run very well again and wouldn’t be surprised if she got her head in front. (14) Wheal Leisure is another one that ran well first up. She was beaten 5.25L but she’ll appreciate the step up to 1700m today.

 

RACE 6

Wide-open three-year-old race here and unlikely to be a race I’ll bet into. Interested to see (2) Aylmerton resume for the new stable. He showed plenty of talent as a two-year-old, winning the Group 2 Todman Stakes in Sydney. The obvious query is whether he can go on with it as a three-year-old but he’s drawn a good marble with Zahra on board and you’d expect him to improve under the care of the Lindsay Park team. Stablemate (4) Tony Nicconi has won two from two to start his career and draws well again in barrier 2, which will see him position right up on the speed. That makes him a winning chance once again. (6) Seabrook won the Group 1 Champagne Stakes over 1600m in Sydney last prep and resumes over 1200m today. She won a Group 2 race in Sydney over this distance last prep so there’s reason to say she can be very competitive fresh. (8) Sanctimonius isn’t short of talent and could be a blowout chance. Chances don’t end there.

TIP:

 

RACE 7

This really does look a very suitable race for (3) Vega Magic. He bolted in to win the Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes over 1200m at this track, where he beat subsequent winner Voodoo Lad. He won this race last year and his second up record reads five starts for four wins. He’s undefeated at this track and looks very hard to beat again this year. $2.90 seems a reasonable price. (1) Happy Clapper has a good first up record, including a victory in the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes over 1300m last preparation. He went on to finish within a length of Winx second up before bolting in to win the Doncaster Mile third up. He’s slightly awkwardly drawn in barrier 7 and this is his first start at Caulfield, but if he repeats his form from last prep, he’ll be right in the finish here. (8) Kementari really should be going close if he’s anywhere near as good as he’s been made out to be. He was slightly disappointing behind Winx last start. (2) Black Heart Bart has been a bit disappointing in his first two starts back this campaign but he’s got an outstanding record at this track and distance and should really be ready to show some improvement third up from the good draw. Throw him in your numbers at 20/1. (7) Kings Will Dream was very good first up and although he’s tracking towards the Caulfield Cup, you wouldn’t be shocked to see him win this. (9) Grunt and (10) Showtime not hopeless. Ladbrokes are offering a great promo for the race, paying out both 1st and 2nd as the winner with a max bet of $100. I think that’s very much worth taking advantage of with Vega Magic as the selection.

 

RACE 8

Great field assembled for the The Heath over 1100m here, with multiple Group 1 horses resuming. I think there’s two clear standouts here, both from the Weir stable. (3) Voodoo Lad ran 2nd to Vega Magic two starts ago and backed that up with a win in similar grade at Flemington last start. He’s undefeated from five starts at this distance, including two at this track. He’s had six starts at Caulfield and has never finished outside the top two. He has race fitness on his side while a few of the classier runners in the race, such as (1) Santa Ana Lane and (2) Brave Smash may be vulnerable first up. Looks very hard to beat. The big query runner is his stablemate (12) Kemono, who is a Japanese import on Australian debut here. Weir wants to aim him for The Everest and gave him a huge wrap during the week, but said he should be better second up. In any case, I think we’ll see him hitting the line very hard.

 

RACE 9

Another very competitive race to finish off the day with any number of winning chances. (1) Catchy returns from a spell and importantly, it’s against her own sex and in Group 3 company. Last preparation she returned in the Oakleigh Plate first up and was beaten less than two lengths. Barrier 1 here might be slightly tricky for her as she races best from off the speed. (3) Prussian Vixen looks a good roughie at around $31 and should be included in your numbers. She won first up last prep in similar grade over this same track and distance. She’ll be looking to use similar tactics today from the wide barrier. (5) I Am Excited had a fantastic prep last time in work, with three wins and two 3rd placings. The form out of those Sydney races has proven to be fairly strong and I’d expect a strong showing first up here. (6) Jamaican Rain raced three times last prep for three convincing wins. She is undefeated first up from three attempts and has won three from four at this distance. There’s a couple of small queries, those being the firm ground (all three starts last prep were on wet ground) and the fact she tackles Group 3 company today. But Craig Williams is a strong lead and she’s drawn well in barrier 6. (9) Creativity has a good record at the track and distance and draws well in barrier 4, which gives her claims. (14) Petition draws well and can be competitive fresh but might just be looking for 1400m, while (17) Leather’n’lace and (18) Platinum Angel are both good each way chances if they gain runs.

TIP:

(6) Jamaican Rain
$7.00

BET NOW AT UBET

Value: (3) Prussian Vixen $26 Neds

 

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