Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, August 18th, featuring the Group 3 Vain Stakes and Group 3 Quizette Stakes.
We have nine races on a Good track but there is rain predicted for Saturday so monitor the track conditions.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below. You can also listen to Episode 47 of the Before You Bet Podcast below, where Tim previews all the feature races at both Caulfield and Randwick!
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 1 #2 Naantali
Best Value: Race 4 #10 Gold Fields
RACE 1
We might be able to get off to a strong start here before a few very tough races later on the card. (2) Naantali has won three of her past four races, with the past two of those being in similar company at Flemington and Moonee Valley. She’s only had the eight career starts so she still looks open to plenty of improvement and so the 2.5kg weight rise shouldn’t bring her undone. The only little query is barrier 7, which is a slightly tricky draw in a field of 11. Her biggest danger pretty clearly looks to be the Adelaide mare (7) Miss Siska. She’s been in good form herself, with three wins from five starts this preparation. One of her defeats was in Group 3 company and the other was ast start when Red Choux’s beat her by a nose. Red Choux’s has Melbourne metro form and the gap back to 3rd was significant, so she should be measuring up here from the good draw. I wouldn’t dismiss (11) Tagreeda who is third up, down in weight, drawn an inside barrier and steps up sharply from 1300m to 1700m. $21 could be well over the odds.
Value: (11) Tagreeda $21 Sportsbet
RACE 2
Only really interested in two runners here. The favourite (3) Rillito has had three starts this prep for an impressive win over this track and distance and two 2nd placings which were both huge efforts. Last start she circled the field from well back and just peaked on her run while the winner snuck up along the inside. She’s likely going to be doing the same thing here from barrier 7 of 9. The slightly query is whether they are able to make ground and whether the five weeks between runs will be an issue late on in the race. She deserves favouritism and I’ll be definitely backing her though. The clear value in the race is (2) Crystal Fountain at $7. She’s won three of her four starts first up from a spell, including a win over this track and distance first up last preparation. She’s three from four at the distance overall and looks really well suited from barrier 4. I’d almost dutch bet the both of them and hope one of the two wins.
Value: (2) Crystal Fountain $7.00 BetEasy
RACE 3
The first of a number of wide-open races on the program. The favourite brings an interesting angle to this race – (7) A Good Yarn has won his past three races by a combined 16L but all three have been on the Geelong Synthetic surface and it’s always a big query transferring that form to Saturday metropolitan turf races. My rule of thumb is to bet around that form and I’ll be doing so again here but not a great deal stands out away from the favourite. There’s plenty that could win but (14) Plutocracy could be a nice each way bet at near double figure odds. He’s first up here and he’s never finished outside the top two from three previous first up runs. He’s also never finished outside the top two at the distance and barrier 7 sees him get a lovely run in a big field. (2) Oberland is another at double figure odds who represents a decent each way bet. Second up after a sound first up run and stable apprentice Ethan Brown takes over from Liam Riordan. (8) Lord Barrington is knocking on the door, (13) Bob Of The Head has claims first up, (17) Double Jeopardy comes out of some strong races and Craig Williams is an interesting jockey booking on (9) Carlingford third up.
RACE 4
Another very open race with plenty of hopes. (10) Gold Fields looks a chance at $26. He’s third up from a spell here and he’s won two from three starts previously when third up. This stable is absolutely flying at the moment and Jamie Mott is a good jockey booking. Drawn well and looks a blowout chance. (16) Addison resumes from a spell with the blinkers off for the first time. She showed a fair bit of ability during her last campaign and she won her only start at this distance. Also has a good record at this track and Regan Bayliss is riding in great form. She’ll be giving them a big start but also might be worth a ticket at $26. (16) Streets Of Avalon broke through for a deserved victory last start. Isn’t a consistent winner but should be up on speed and may have taken a bit of confidence from that effort last time out. (4) Redefine will be a chance IF the rain predicted falls. If the track is firm he isn’t much hope but if it gets to Soft he’s definitely worth backing on the back of a strong win last start.
Also Value: (16) Addison $26 BetEasy
RACE 5
Extremely tough race to bet in and be confident in. There’s basically seven horses that are first up here who we last saw in two-year-old races. We’ve yet to see what they’re like as three-year-olds. Add to that a horse down the bottom who is on debut and you have a race full of questions. (1) Long Leaf showed plenty as a two-year-old and the stable have a very good opinion of him. He won his first three races before failing in four subsequent races, all at Group 1 level. Blinkers off, winkers on, Mark Zahra is a positive jockey booking and so long as he can get a good run from barrier 10, I’d expect him to be right in the finish here at $8. (2) Ollivander won on debut and then ran 2nd to Long Leaf, before failing in his last two starts as a two-year-old. The stable also have a big opinion of him and he has a win at the track and distance to his name. I think $13 is a big price for him. (4) The August is undefeated in two career starts. He’s first up from a short let-up since his last win and draws well in barrier 1. The form out of his last win has turned out to be pretty handy with the second horse going on to win its next two starts. (6) Tony Nicconi was a big winner on debut but I have some questions over the form out of that one, with the second horse doing little to impress since. (3) Rock Hard is undefeated and draws well, while (10) Taxi is the debutante in the field and can’t be dismissed. Backing The August with something on Long Leaf and Ollivander.
Value: (2) Ollivander $13 Sportsbet
RACE 6
Once again there’s any number of chances here. (1) Sunlight obviously has the runs on the board and despite being belted first up by Nature Strip, she profiles very well for this race, especially with the good draw. If they’re touting Nature Strip as a chance for The Everest then Sunlight should have no issues taking on her own age and own sex. The Lindsay Park team have three entires here and (6) Qafila might be the best of them. They’ve always mentioned how big an opinion of her they have and she returns here with blinkers on for the first time. It’s also notable that Mark Zahra jumps off the stablemate Ennis Hill to ride her. At $18 she’s definitely worth an each way ticket. (7) Witherspoon ran 2nd to Plague Stone up in Sydney last start. First time going the Melbourne way but she is from an astute stable. (9) Write Enuff was an easy winner on debut at Warrnambool and Craig Williams sticks with her for this race. She didn’t beat much but she’s not hopeless here. (10) Pippie bolted in on debut and followed that with a good effort behind the very-talented Multaja last start. (18) Golden Halo represents the Weir stable and won easily on debut at Donald despite sitting wide throughout. Typically, Weir horses measure up in town after efforts like that.
RACE 7
Feature race of the day and this is hugely competitive. (1) Hartnell is first up and he’s won his past two first up runs, which were both at this track and distance. He won this race last year in dominant fashion when he even carried 60kg after Craig Williams put tools in his boots. He followed that with a narrow win in the Group 1 CF Orr Stakes back in February, where he sat wide without cover throughout and still managed to tough it out. He returns without synthetic hoof filler which is a big plus and if he can slide across from barrier 13 without too much trouble then he’ll be right in the finish. (2) Black Heart Bart has the benefit of a run under his belt and comes here second up, whereas several others are first up. He’s finished in the top two in seven of his nine second up runs and has four wins and two placings from six starts at the track and distance. He has no bar plates on so it appears as though his feet are good and he’s drawn ideally in barrier 2. Looks a huge chance at each way odds. (9) Widgee Turf may not have the class of a number of these but he’s the rock-hard fit horse in the race who might just catch a few underdone. Throw him in exotics. (11) Kings Will Dream is the current Caulfield Cup favourite and won five from five last prep. He looks a serious horse but the query is whether he’s tuned up for this first up given his grand final is the Cup. (12) Mighty Boss is another that’s first up and unlike his stablemate (13) Grunt, he might actually be wound up to give this a good crack. He should have gone very close in the CF Orr in February. (14) Showtime has the benefit of a run in Sydney under his belt coming into this and the form looks pretty good behind Pierata and Kementari. I’m expecting a big run from him from the good gate. (15) Holy Snow also has claims – he produced a big win first up at this track and distance last prep.
RACE 8
Another race full of good horses. (3) Osbourne Bulls is first up here and has the weight to carry but he’s won seven from 10 starts and could be set for better races this Spring. He’s undefeated first up and has four wins from five starts at this distance. Barrier 10 is a negative as he’ll get a long way back and this is also his first run the Melbourne way of going, so there’s definite queries but he’s too good a horse for me to take on. (5) Inn Keeper ran 3rd behind Voodoo Lad five weeks ago and that form has been franked with Voodoo Lad winning at Flemington last weekend. He won’t get the lead all to himself here, however, because (6) Bella Martini loves to bowl along in front and she’s first up so will be very fresh. (7) Brave Song comes into this third up and on the quick back-up after running 3rd behind Voodoo Lad and Home Of The Brave last weekend. He’s another that will have to come from back in the field but his set up looks good for a race like this. (10) Ardrossan trialled pretty ordinarily but the blinkers weren’t on for that trial and they go on for the first time on race day here. That’s a positive, as is barrier 1, but it’s hard to back him based on his only Australian start and the trial.
RACE 9
Not an overly inspiring way to finish off. (5) Plein Ciel was very heavily backed first up in the Mildura Cup and it was a huge run to finish 3rd. That was his first run in over a year and his second up record stands at three starts for two wins and a 2nd. His record at the distance is the same and he’s undefeated at the track. He’s had seven starts on Good ground for five wins and two placings so with the good draw, he really should be very competitive. The only slight query is whether that big first up run took a bit of gas out of him. (7) Call Me Handsome is flying this prep but he has the wide gate to contend with today compared to barrier 1 which he won from last start. (13) Another Coldie was three lengths off Call Me Handsome last start but can bounce back. (11) Kenjorwood is third up and should be starting to show something, (10) Etah James is a winner and could run well fresh despite this being well below his best, and (3) Mask Of Time isn’t far off winning one.
