Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, April 14th.
We have a nine-race card with the track rated a Good 3 and the rail out 9m. In typical circumstances, I’d really want to be on-pace here with the rail out and the firm track, but there’s some rain predicted throughout the day which could even things out.
If you haven't already, check out Episode 30 of the Before You Bet Podcast, and check out our Randwick Racing Tips for Day 2 of The Championships here!
Best Bet: Race 4 #9 Tiamo Grace
Best Value: Race 9 #13 Working From Home / #8 Typhoon Jolie
Two-year-old race to start things off here. Normally I’d be staying out of races like this but there’s a couple I’m interested in. The first of those is (5) Ocean Knight who trialled in eye-catching fashion leading into this. He settled in the box seat behind the leaders and sliced between runners, hitting the line very strongly to finish alongside the winner. Looks to draw a touch awkward in barrier 7 but if they are able to run on, he’ll be hitting the line hard at $6.50. (10) Sizzleme was one of my selections in last week’s two-year-old race at Bendigo, and she went to the line under a stranglehold. She never saw daylight at any stage of the straight, and although she draws barrier 1 again here and will need luck once again, I’m prepared to stick with her with $7 available. The Ciaron Maher-trained (7) Star Fall has been very well backed already. He trialled well behind Yulong February where he wasn’t really asked for any serious effort at all. The winner of the trial went close on debut at Warrnambool. He draws well in barrier 4 here and should be right up on pace getting the gun run. Backing Ocean Knight at $6.50, Sizzleme at $7 and saving on Star Fall at $4.60. There are also a stack of promos around (Crownbet, Sportsbet, UBET, Pointsbet) for 2nd and 3rd here.
TIP: (5) Ocean Knight / (10) Sizzleme
Interesting race that could be a tactical affair with the top two in the market typically frontrunners. (7) Amortentia goes on top after a sound win at Sandown Hillside last start when leading all the way. That win was her fourth at the distance from seven starts, and she comes into this third up where she has a good record. The form out of her last start win has stood up with Hectopascal then coming out and winning her next start. I’m sure they’ll try and lead but it all depends on how (8) Simply Invincible jumps to her inside from barrier 1. He was racing in good form before failing at Flemington last start, but you can put a line through that effort. He jumped slowly, found himself well back and then came wide on a track that was a monorail on the day – the outside was quicksand. Just leaning towards Amortentia over him. (10) Dinner Lake was a good winner for us last start at good odds, but this is a different race complexion today. He won in BM64 grade that day and steps up to BM78 grade today. Caulfield is a much different track to Sandown and although he’s much better drawn today (can sit midfield), he might struggle to make up the ground on those two at the front. It’s worth noting that (11) Jacqui’s Joy has won two of her three starts at this track and distance. (5) Kapaulenko maps poorly for the 3kg apprentice, and (4) Ma Jones comes off a lameness issue.
TIP: (7) Amortentia
Great little race. (1) Palazzo Vecchio has had a painful campaign, with three luckless runs, all in better grade than this. Yet I still think she’s short enough in the market $2.70. That’s about her right price but I’ll be playing around her. That might come back to bite me but the jockey booking doesn’t excite me. (11) Sheezdashing will be my main play in the race at $8. She’s similar to Palazzo Vecchio in that she’s also had a luckless campaign. She was held up and rarely clear both first and second up, and last start was a complete horror show. She was midfield without cover, then got checked back in the field at the 400m, ran onto heels at the 150m and then charged home late to be beaten 3L in the Mornington Guineas. She’ll get back again from barrier 9 but hopefully she gets a clear path this time. (4) Double The Magic comes off a dominant win at Ballarat where she bolted in by over 5L. She comes to town now and it’s a tactic we’ve seen used time and again by Weir with success. (5) Casino Rose is another that comes off a dominant Ballarat win. It was only maiden grade but she did it comfortably and this stable is absolutely flying. Maps very well and looks the value in the race at $17.
TIP: (11) Sheezdashing EW / (5) Casino Rose EW
Another competitive race. Sticking with (9) Tiamo Grace who has returned in good order. Her first up run was good before just a fair showing at the Valley last start. I thought she finished the race off well enough and she looks suited third up today with the good draw. Taking $4.60. (12) Top Of The Range was murdered last start, and the start before that. You’d think he’d get a clear run with barrier 8 today but I thought that when he drew similarly last start and he ran into dead ends the entire straight. (10) Heptagon is a reasonable price at $7.50 for a horse that’s won three of his five starts this preparation. Tricky gate for the apprentice to overcome today. I backed (15) My Paisann last start and he ran reasonably well but wasn’t in a winning position at any stage. Good odds again today for a horse I’ve got an opinion of, but I might have to wait until a senior jockey gets back on. Expecting (13) Zasorceress to show up one of these days. She’s had three runs back now and should be starting to show something shortly.
TIP: (9) Tiamo Grace
Tough race and I won’t be getting involved too heavily here. I was with (1) Wolfendale last start but he was fairly poor, but he steps back up to 2400m here after dropping back in distance first up from a 55-day break last start. Drawn much better here in barrier 4, can sit forward, should strip fitter and looks a hope in a wide race at double figure odds. (2) Han Xin bolted in over 2000m at this track last start and should find the front again. If he handles the step up from 1600m to 2000m and now 2400m, he’ll be tough to run down. (12) Maheera should be included at big odds and (17) Heir To The Throne is another chance but draws poorly.
TIP: (1) Wolfendale EW
This is a terrible race. (1) Spectroscope was well in the market in last year’s Doncaster but he’s struggled to rediscover that form of late. He comes down to Melbourne and gets the blinkers put on, but draws wide and is likely to settle a long way back. No doubt the horses he’s been racing against in Sydney far outclass the horses in this field, but I can’t take that price about him the way he’s going. There’s nothing else here that really stands out. The big query in the race is the freshly-gelded (3) Grey Lion who is first up from a spell here. Likely to be heading to the Warrnambool Cup – is he going to be forward enough to win first up at 2000m? I don’t want to be losing on him as he’s one of a only two or three runners that I could back here. (7) Velox is a complete skunk but somehow I’ve ended up with him on top here. He’s somehow turned his form around in recent starts, and although his record at this track is very poor, he managed to get around Mornington alright last start which gives me a bit of hope. (9) Prima maps well from the inside gate here and ran well enough last start to suggest he could be some sort of chance in this. (4) Golden Mane comes out of a stronger race but gave itself up last start. (8) Glorious Sindar and (11) Unrealistic are the two blowout chances at 30/1 and 50/1 respectively, in a race where a blowout result isn’t out of the question.
TIP: (7) Velox / (9) Prima EW
Tough race. I’ve got (6) William Thomas clearly on top after his dominant win first up at Sandown. I’ve got a good opinion of this horse, the only concerns are barrier 10 and Luke Nolen. But if he gets any sort of good run throughout, I think he’ll be right there at the finish. $4.80 is a reasonable price. The two Weir runners are of big interest. (10) Iconoclasm followed up a dominant Ararat maiden win with a comfortable victory over in Adelaide. Barrier 19 here makes things awkward. The stablemate (12) Reilmartini draws the polar opposite in barrier 1. Interestingly, Daniel Moor rides for Darren Weir here, whereas Ben Allen is on Iconoclasm. Reilmartini comes off a sound win at Ballarat and maps well to sit just behind the speed here. $7 is available and I almost guarantee it starts much shorter than that. (17) Naantaali is a horse I’ve got a lot of time for, and she was an expensive purchase. She won well on debut and then bumped into a very smart one at her second start. The query for mine is her being first up from a 175-day break with just one trial under the belt. But if she’s forward enough, she’ll go very close with the good draw. (20) Moet Rose is a huge price after a good first up run. Locking in $4.80 for William Thomas and $7 for Reilmartini.
TIP: (6) William Thomas / (12) Reilmartini EW
I’d be very surprised if the winner didn’t come out of the top three horses in the market here. (1) Milwaukee beat Handsome Thief two starts ago at Flemington and then ran 3rd to him last start at this track and distance. Both Handsome Thief and El Sicario have been scratched which leaves Milwaukee with a huge chance. The jockey change is a positive one, albeit not hugely. Draws well, up on speed again, hard to run down. (12) Brahmos has always shown a bit of promise, ever since he won on debut in BM64 grade. He’s won his past two, although I have queries about the strength of the form from his last start at Mornington. He also got the run of the race on that occasion. (15) I Boogi has a terrific first up record and has won first up in his past two preparations. He’ll be coming from a long way back but he’s the one that Milwaukee will have to keep an eye on. I don’t really want to be risking any of them but I’ll take Milwaukee and I Boogi and leave out Brahmos.
TIP: (1) Milwaukee / (15) I Boogi EW
There’s three that stand out to me here. (1) Cool Passion is the first of those for obvious reasons. She’s first up here and although she hasn’t won first up for a few preps, she was luckless first up last prep and went to the line under a grip. She’s been competitive in much, much better races than this last prep, and she’s on course for the Group 1 races coming up in Adelaide. The query is whether she’s ready to win this early in her campaign, and the fact she has to carry 60kg. I think she’s undoubtedly the class horse in the race but I’ll be saving on her at most here. There’s two each way plays in the race for me. (13) Working From Home bounced back at the Valley last start, leading all the way. I think she’s got a bit of ability and she’ll go forward once again here. She definitely has claims at $8.50. (8) Typhoon Jolie is a huge price at $13. She was very heavily backed first up and won easily. That tells me she’s returned in great order and it looks as if she’s being kept to the sprint trips this time in. Drawn very wide but will go forward and be in this for a long way.
TIP: (13) Working From Home EW / (8) Typhoon Jolie EW
1, 3, 7, 8, 9, 11
6, 10, 12, 17, 20
1, 12, 15
1, 2, 4, 8, 9, 15
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