Welcome to our preview of horse racing at Canterbury on Wednesday 13th September, with eight races to look forward to. The track is currently rated a Good 4 and should stay around that mark with no rain predicted. The rail is out 6m so it could pay to look for those up on speed and on the rail in the early races.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
Mahalangur (Best Bet) - R7
Token Of Love EW (Best Value) - R8
Not a race I want to get involved in at all. BEACON deserves favouritism after she backed up a solid Wyong maiden win with a good performance behind Cudabeen in this sort of grade last start. Gets the upgrade of Hugh Bowman taking over from Jay Ford, draws the inside gate and she'll be very hard to beat, but $1.75 isn't a price to be jumping into. MARISHKA was absolutely truckloaded on debut and won in nice enough style. Although their races were two weeks apart, Marishka's winning time over the 1100m was 0.9 seconds slower than the time recorded for Beacon's race. She draws to get a nice run on the leaders' heels once again and I wouldn't be ruling her out at all. Interestingly, all the money this morning has been for YULONG XINGSHENG who is having her first start for the Kris Lees stable after previously being trained by Michael Freedman. She also won her debut over this track and distance back in January, and resumes for the first time since then. She's had three recent trials leading into this and has been $8.50 into $5.50. Not a race that I can bet into.
With the favourite SEXY EYES here who bolted in on debut at Gosford before finishing a length behind the winner here two weeks ago. Hugh Bowman replaces Jeff Penza which is a significant upgrade, draws well and looks well placed to win again. Happy to take $3.70. ISTRIA is an interesting runner and cna go well first up with two trials under the belt. James Cummings has his stable flying at the moment and horses resuming from spells are going particularly well. O'REILLY CYRUS is another first up from a spell and draws the inside gate but has the weight to carry. NEYLA'S GIRL has had support at longer odds but would need to improve on exposed form. Happy to take on ABSOLUTE RIPPER and COCOEXCEL at the prices.
TIP: Sexy Eyes
Huge watch on the Waterhouse/Bott debutante WOMAN here who has impressed in numerous trials over the last nine months but has yet to be seen at the races. Finally makes her debut and just has to bring the trial form to the races in what looks a fairly weak contest. McEvoy is a positive booking and the price seems fair. Interestingly, there's been a big market push for FIFTH AFFAIR ($8-$3.50) who gets the blinkers applied for the first time after resuming with a 4th placing behind Marishka first up. I'd suggest she needs to improve but with blinkers on and the weight of money, it suggests she may well do so. LAUSSEL has had a number of very quiet trials leading into its debut today and no surprise to see it measure up.
HONG QIGONG ran a huge race first up when coming from the back of the field to just miss. Steps up from the 1100m to the 1250m here which looks ideal, and despite the weight I think he finds a very winnable race. ABSOLUTE gets the blinkers on for the first time here after three placings to start its career. He went down as the odds on favourite last start at Wyong, but two starts ago he did run 2nd to Gold Standard, who has since come out and run 2nd to Dracarys before winning the Stan Fox Stakes. So if the blinkers help him reproduce that form, he'll be very tough to beat here. STAR OF THE SEAS ran 2nd on debut and the horse that beat him has since won again. PARET not hopeless.
TIP: Hong Qigong
Does look a two horse race between NICTOCK and IN TIMES OF WAR. Nictock is a winner of six of seven races in his career and is undefeated at the track and the distance. Won over track and distance two starts ago with 58kg before winning at Warwick Farm last start with 61kg. Carries 59kg here and interestingly Bowman remains on him and not Waller's horse. Waller's horse is IN TIMES OF WAR, who has never finished outside the top two in eight career starts. She was a bit of a nightmare for punters last prep, going down at $2.40, $4.80, $3.40 and $4.20, with one win sandwiched in between. There's not doubting she's got the ability to win, and the weight of money this morning suggests she's the one to beat. But with all things considered, at the prices I'm leaning towards Nictock at $3.20, who just seems to keep winning.
Two I'm interested in here. PIRACY has put two wins together now after following up his maiden win with a solid showing at Wyong last start, when he beat the hot-favourite and stablemate Raiden. This is a horse who started favourite in a race won by Menari back in January, but pulled up with issues. Looks to be striking some decent form and I'd expect them to go forward again from the wide barrier here. McEvoy jumps off CENTRO SUPERIOR to ride Piracy which is a good sign. Taking $3.10. VIENNA ROMANCE bounced back last start over 1200m here after a string of consistent runs without winning. She takes on the boys today but she stays at a similar weight and draws to get a nice run once again. At $8 she looks the value. SMART AMELIA makes her debut for the Waller stable. Slight query over her liking for good tracks given she's never won on one from five starts. There's been strong support for ALL FROM SCRAP who ran 2nd to Gadfly first up after covering ground. The run was admirable under the circumstances but serious questions over that form given Gadfly then came out and ran 5th of 8 at his next start.
TIP: Piracy / Vienna Romance EW
MAHALANGUR looks one of the better bets of the day here and the $2.20 is actually pretty reasonable. This horse produced a huge win on debut at Newcastle when he was absolutely truckloaded in betting. He then went straight to Saturday Group 3 company and finished 2.2L behind the likes of Addictive Nature and Assimilate. Carries just 53.5kg here and you'd think with all things being equal, he'd win this. SHOCK ALERT, FOTENSKY, SAMBRO will all be around the mark.
TIP: Mahalangur (Best Bet)
Very keen on TOKEN OF LOVE here at $6.50. Two starts ago ran 2nd to Chaterlard (who then ran 2nd in Saturday grade) and last start finished 2nd behind Estikhraaj, beaten 1.5L, but that margin should have been significantly less. She should have gone close to winning the race but she was badly held up in the straight and when she finally got clear it was all over. Gets a 1.5kg weight swing on Estikhraaj today and draws another nice barrier. Just needs a better ride and she should go very close to winning this. ESTIKHRAAJ had things go his way and got an A1 ride from Bowman last start. Can win again despite the slight rise in weight and $6 is also reasonable. ALMOST COURT is the well-backed favourite for the race after three easy wins this preparation. They've been impressive, but they've also been at the Sapphire Coast and Canberra Acton. This race is within his reach, but there's no way I can take $2.60 for a horse coming from those tracks in a race with a few other live chances. MANDALONG KISS is fit now and gets out to a distance he can win at so expect improvement from him at bigger odds.
TIP: Token Of Love EW (Best Value)
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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