Weather: Light showers with a potential passing thunderstorm, top of 24 degrees Celsius (winds up to 10km/h)
This match in my opinion provides the best value of the day. I had slated McDonald to open around $1.55 here, so you can imagine my surprise that McDonald is currently $2 at some bookmakers. I am not sure a tight 4 set win over a player who hasn’t stepped on court since March, and hasn’t won on grass since 2015 inKrajinovic. Looking through the match, Jarry was lucky to get out of the first set 6-3, as he had to save break point in 3 of his 5 service games. The resistance was broken early in set two, however there remained very little dominance on serve, except when he already found himself down a break of serve. Set 3 was again the same, dropping serve in the 7th game, before capitalising on a rusty Krajinovic to break back, ultimately winning the set in a tiebreak, before closing out the 4th set with relative ease. As his first ATP main draw grass win of his career, in my eyes it left a lot to be desired.
McDonald on the other hand was able to get through a real danger game againstBerankis, getting the job done 4-6 7-6(6) 6-3 7-6(7), proving himself to be better in the key moments, which ultimately led to the victory. Although the stats don’t do a great job of showing it, McDonald did a great job of pressuring Berankis on serve consistently, with the American winning 36% of points on first serve and 40% of points on second serve.
Looking at McDonald’s lead-up form and comparing it to Jarry, and I am staggered that McDonald is at the price he is across all bookmakers. McDonald should be too consistent and strong for Jarry across 5 sets, and I am very happy to snap up this fantastic value price.
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