After a successful week last week, we’re back with our preview for Week 5 of the 2018 Unibet Premier League of Darts. Michael Smith now finds himself as the only undefeated player in the league on top of the leaderboard with four straight victories, but World #1 Michael van Gerwen is breathing down his neck and is in ominous touch. At the other end of the scale, it’s Premier League newcomers Gerwyn Price and Daryl Gurney who are the only players without a victory yet this season.
Here’s our betting tips for Week 5 of the 2018 Unibet Premier League!
Gary Anderson vs Rob Cross
A blockbuster to kick off the evening sees Gary Anderson take on reigning World Champion Rob Cross. Anderson looks to be back to his best after the back injury earlier in the season. Take away two really poor legs in the middle of his match against Peter Wright, and Anderson was superb in the 6-6 draw. He probably should’ve got the win. Wright played well, but Anderson on song is simply sublime.
Rob Cross is going to have to bring his absolute best if he’s going to get a point from this match. Cross has improved over the last two weeks, and had a strong 7-3 win over Barney last week, but Anderson is another huge challenge.
Cross will no doubt lift himself for this match, but I really like the price for Anderson to continue his hot form and get a win here. I also think Cross can play well enough to once again ensure Anderson has a high average. He’s averaged over 105 in his last two matches, so happy to whack the over 99.5 line.
TIP: Gary Anderson to win - $2.35 at William Hill
TIP: Gary Anderson average over 99.5 - $1.83 at Sportsbet
Daryl Gurney vs Peter Wright
A chance for Daryl Gurney to try and get his first win of the season against “Snakebite” Peter Wright. Gurney hasn’t been terrible this season, with two draws and then two losses against the current top two players in the league. It won’t be easy against Wright, as Gurney will need to bring his best, but a win is possible here. Gurney has to improve his checkouts which currently sit at just 28.57% which is easily the worst in the league. His best checkout this season is 95 as he has missed his last 32 attempts on television at a ton-plus checkout. This is all despite having thrown the equal-highest 180s in the league.
Peter Wright is nestled inside the top four but the reality is that he’s had just one win in his first four matches – and that win was against MVG! He’s in a pretty good spot having played the top three players in the world, so he’ll now be looking to put some wins on the board.
The books have the match pricing just about right, with Wright a warm favourite, and I’m not game enough to take a -2.5 game handicap as I know Gurney can push it all the way if he can convert. Instead, I’ll play the stats on Gurney as I’ve outlined above.
TIP: Daryl Gurney High Checkout under 100.5 - $1.85 at CrownBet
TIP: Daryl Gurney most 180s - $1.92 at CrownBet
Mensur Suljovic vs Michael van Gerwen
No one in the Premier League would be more relieved that Mensur Suljovic after he secured his first win of the season last week against Gerweyn Price. But it’s going to be tough for him to win two in a row, coming up against Michael van Gerwen.
MVG was again superb last week as he ran over Daryl Gurney with relative ease. He seems really focussed this season after the World Championships disappointment, and I can’t see him losing this one to Suljovic.
There’s no real value in the markets. The under 5.5 180 line is the only bet I can entertain, but I think we’ll just sit this one out.
TIP: No Bet
Raymond van Barneveld vs Michael Smith
A really interesting betting game this one. Michael Smith is on top of the leaderboard, undefeated and hasn’t put a foot wrong this season. He’s up against Raymond van Barneveld who has been lethargic and uninspiring so far this season. So why are the bookies putting them at the same price? It’s got me a little baffled.
For me, Michael Smith should be a clear favourite in this match. He defeated Simon Whitlock last week, and although Smith didn’t play at his best and did give his opponent some chances, Smith was able to knock out a 7-3 win. He looks like he has taken his game to the next level and these are the sort of matches that he now should be winning. Interestingly, his only win in the Premier League two years ago was in this very match against Barney.
Barney had another shocker last week, losing 7-3 to Rob Cross. I said at the time that you just can’t back Barney against anyone at the moment, so I’m not about to start doing it against an undefeated opponent. Barney hasn’t been near his best, he looks tired and disinterested. Perhaps the travel is getting to him?
The betting isn’t telling the true tale here, at least, I hope that’s the case. I’m happy to unload on Smith to win.
TIP: Michael Smith to win - $2.42 at CrownBet
Simon Whitlock vs Gerwyn Price
A tricky match to finish the evening and one where both players will fancy their chances. Australia’s Simon Whitlock copped his first loss of the season last week, so it will be interesting to see how he bounces back. He had his chances against Smith last week – one bounce out on the bull which would’ve been a game changer – so he wasn’t far off the mark.
Meanwhile Gerwyn Price languishes at the bottom of the table, and I think on paper, he’s probably the 10th best player in the league. So he’s got some work to do to avoid relegation. He’ll be desperate for some points here. It’s his scoring which has let him down this season. Just nine 180s in four matches, and a 92.58 average just isn’t good enough.
I like Whitlock’s chances here. I don’t expect it to be a great match, so happy to take some unders on certain lines, but I think his ability to be stronger through his checkouts should get him the win.
TIP: Simon Whitlock to win - $2.20 at Unibet
TIP: Simon Whitlock vs Gerwyn Price under 5.5 180s - $1.91 at Sportsbet
