2018 AFL: Round 22 Preview & Betting Tips

August 15th 2018, 9:02am, By: PuntingInDanger

Another great weekend for PuntingInDanger and fans last week as we hit on 6/8 AFL betting tips with one of our losses coming after a heartbreaking kick after the siren in the West Coast vs Port Adelaide game.

Round 22 of the AFL season is set to be a massive one as five teams are still fighting for the final two spots in the top eight. We take a look at all nine games in Round 22 of the AFL and give our betting tips below!

AFL Round 22 Betting Tips

Richmond vs Essendon (Friday 7.50pm AEST)

See our full standalone preview and tips for the monster clash between Essendon and Richmond on Friday night here!

Collingwood vs Port Adelaide (Saturday 1.45pm AEST)

What a massive game in the context of the AFL finals this year. Collingwood currently sit 5th on the AFL ladder and a win would ensure they play finals this year, however, two losses to round out the season and there’s no guarantee that they stay in the eight. Port Adelaide, on the other hand, sit just four points clear inside the top eight and have a less than desirable percentage heading into the last two games.

The Power suffered another tough loss on the weekend to make it two in a row and four of the last five games. Jeremy McGovern kicked a goal after the siren for the Eagles to hand them the four-point win over the Power and put Port Adelaide in jeopardy of missing the eight after sitting in second place just over a month ago.

Tough game to call here with so much on the line for both teams. The last time the teams faced off Port Adelaide were 27-point winners but that was last year and in Adelaide. The Pies injury problems are concerning at the moment, but Jeremy Howe should return this weekend. Port Adelaide have their own problems with Charlie Dixon and Paddy Ryder set to miss extended time. Too many variables for me here, I’m staying away.

No Bet

Geelong vs Fremantle (Saturday 2.10pm AEST)

After a heartbreaking loss to the Hawks on the weekend, Geelong will be desperate to get back on GMHBA Stadium on the weekend and back on the winners list. They currently sit four points adrift of the top eight and will need to win both of their remaining games to jump into the finals. The Cats star midfielders were disappointing on the weekend as they were smashed by the Hawks in the key midfield stats. They’ll need to improve this weekend but on the bright side, they have an easy run home with games against the Dockers and Suns to come.

Fremantle played out a dead rubber against Carlton last weekend and were less than impressive. They trailed by as many as 19 points in the second quarter but ultimately came back to win by 29 points. Michael Walters went down with a hamstring injury which should end his season while its likely that skipper Nat Fyfe along with Stephen Hill and Aaron Sandilands will be iced for the rest of the season.

Geelong will take no chances here and with their percentage currently sitting at 117.2, they’ll see this as a great opportunity to boost that and at GMHBA Stadium they should have full control of the game.


Greater Western Sydney vs Sydney (Saturday 4.35pm AEST)

GWS continued their great run last weekend, downing the Crows by 14 points at Manuka Oval. The win didn’t come without it’s drawbacks, however, as the Giants were hit with injuries to key players in Josh Kelly and Heath Shaw. Kelly should be right to play this weekend but the GWS injury list is starting to stack up. The Giants have now won their last five in a row, 9 of their last 10 and sit third on the ladder.

Sydney captured a season saving win over the Demons last weekend to remain in the eight but have a tough run home with games against the Giants and Hawks in the last two weeks. Fortunately for them, they currently sit two games clear inside the eight, so it’s unlikely they miss here. In a heartbreaking loss for Sydney, injury troubled defender Alex Johnson suffered his sixth ACL tear in as many years, finishing his season after just two games.

Another tough match to call. Sydney looked like they recaptured some of their form last weekend, and I hate writing them off at the worst of times. They are so experienced in these types of situations, but GWS definitely have the form at the moment. Sydney have won the last two NSW derbies, but we think the GWS turn the tables in a close game this weekend.


Gold Coast vs Brisbane (Saturday 7.25pm AEST)

Safe to say this one won’t be breaking any attendance or ratings records, however, Brisbane have looked impressive of late and were super competitive once again on the weekend, going down to the Pies by just 31 points. Plenty of things to be excited about for Lions fans this year, regardless of their 4-16 record so far. They should be up and about for the Queensland Derby and start as $1.22 favourites here.

The Suns were absolutely pulverised by Jack Riewoldt and the Tigers on the weekend, going down by 74 points as the full forward booted 10 goals. The Suns massive upset victory over the Swans in Round 18 sticks out like a sore thumb in their 2018 season. If it wasn’t for that game they have lost their last 14 on the trot including beltings by 50+ points at the hands of the Tigers, Demons twice, Suns, Cats, Hawks.

Tough to imagine the Lions being 29 point favourites over anyone this season but against this Gold Coast side, it seems about right. The Suns haven’t managed to cover that line in the last three weeks and that includes a home game against Carlton. We think the Lions smash them here.


St Kilda vs Hawthorn (Saturday 7.25pm AEST)

The Saints suffered another really disappointing loss on the weekend. After staying competitive for the first quarter as they generally do, the Bombers run and slick ball usage proved to be too much for them in the end as they went down by 43 points at Etihad. Jack Steele was a standout for the Saints, racking up 31 touches and 8 tackles while Jack Billings was also good with two goals and 25 touches. However, the Saints have now lost their last four games in a row and will be desperate to shut the door on what has been a disappointing 2018.

Are the Hawks the best team in the league at the moment? They sure are playing like it. They have captured season defining wins over the Bombers and the Cats in the last two weekends to propel them to fourth on the ladder and have won five of their last six. Two losses to Brisbane will really sting, as they could be sitting as high as second right now with eight more points, but Hawks fans should still be happy with a potential top four finish. An easy game against the Saints this weekend followed by what should be a tough contest against the Swans in Round 23 will decide their fate.

Hawks start as 34.5-point favourites here, which I think seems about right. Before their two close games against Essendon and Geelong, the Hawks were coming off a 63-point win over the Dogs, a 72-point thrashing of the Blues and a 59-point win over the Dockers. We think they get the job done quite convincingly here.

Carlton vs Western Bulldogs (Sunday 1.10pm AEST)

The Dogs saluted in Dale Morris’ 250th game last weekend, downing the Dogs by seven points at Etihad Stadium. The win makes it two in a row for the Dogs, who will have a great chance to make it three and just to 13th on the AFL ladder against the Blues this weekend. Although their wins came against out of form sides in the Saints and Roos, the Bulldogs seem to be playing with new life at the moment, led by star midfielder/forward Marcus Bontempelli, who has kicked six goals in the two wins.

Carlton shot out to an early lead in their Round 21 clash against the Dockers but couldn’t hold on as Fremantle big men Cam McCarthy and Brennan Cox combined for five goals to run over the top of the Blues. Patrick Cripps was once again a standout for the Blues, racking up 32 touches and doing his best job to keep Carlton fans somewhat excited for the future.

The Dogs start as 29.5 point favourites for this one, which seems spot on the money. It’ll be interesting to see whether the Blues can make a game of this one or whether they’ll just get bulldozed like they have done in the past two weeks. I’m staying away from the line bet and looking towards the total, which seems high at 171.5 considering none of the last four games between these two sides has cleared that mark.


West Coast vs Melbourne (Sunday 3.20pm AEST)

One of the games of the round sees the Eagles hosting Melbourne at Optus Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The Demons are desperate for a win to stay in touch with the top eight here. Their saving grace could be their fantastic percentage which currently sits at 130.5, second only to Richmond. However, they’ll likely still need to win one of their remaining two games to make the top eight, which could be tough with games against the Eagles and Giants to round out the season.

The Eagles will be without Josh Kennedy once again this weekend but still start as slight favourites against the Demons. They currently sit second on the ladder with a 15-5 record and have been fantastic at Perth Stadium in particular, winning 9 of 11 games. Top spot isn’t out of the equation for the Eagles, but their first priority will be winning one of the remaining two games to secure second place and home field advantage thoughout the finals series.

 I think this will be a close game regardless of the outcome. Both teams have a lot to play for, particularly Melbourne. It seems like it would be an extremely Melbourne thing to do here to crap the bed in these last two games and choke their chance at playing finals. I like the Eagles to win in a close affair.


Adelaide vs North Melbourne (Sunday 4.40pm AEST)

The final game of the round sees Adelaide hosting the Kangaroos on Sunday afternoon. After a disappointing loss to the Giant son the weekend the Crows are now officially out of the finals race but will be looking to end their season on a high with wins over the Roos and the Blues in the final two rounds. They can ruffle some feathers here and potentially end North Melbourne’s season with a win.

The Roos currently sit four points outside the eight and will be ropeable after dropping the game against the Bulldogs on the weekend. A win would have out of the eight on percentage alone, but not the road is tough. This week is the key week for the Roos. They need to win both games to have any chance at playing finals but their Round 23 clash is against the Saints, which should be winnable.

At least five North Melbourne players will face fitness tests later in the week to prove they are right to go, but with Shaun Higgins and Jarrad Waite returning from injury last weekend the Roos look pretty good on the injury front. Taylor Walker will miss the season through suspension and the Crows could begin to ice some players now that their season is effectively over. I like the Roos to at least keep this close in this must win clash.


 

TIPS

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