Great betting week for PuntingInDanger and fans last weekend as we hit on six out of eight bets. We’ll look to continue our form this weekend in Round 21 of the AFL, which kicks off Friday night with the Bombers taking on the Saints at Etihad Stadium.
We take a look at the Friday night game in full and give our betting tips below!
After losing to the Hawks by four points on Saturday, the Bombers chances of making the top eight are likely finished. They currently sit eight points behind Sydney in eighth spot and will need something miraculous to happen from here. They were in fantastic form leading into the Hawks game, having won their last three in a row before that game and six of their last seven.
Zach Merrett was fantastic in the loss to the Hawks, racking up 41 touches and four tackles but ultimately it was not enough. The medium sized forwards for the Hawks posed some real problems for the oversized Bombers defence as Jack Gunston and Luke Breust combined for eight goals in the win.
The Saints kicked out to a five goal lead early in their Round 20 matchup with the Bulldogs at the MCG but were then ran over by the Dogs as they went on to kick 15 of the next 20 goals in the game to claim a 35 point win.
Seb Ross was a standout for the Saints, racking up 40 touches and kicking three goals, although you have to question his actual impact playing across half back when he is arguably the Saints most important ball winner. Jake Carlisle continues to be a standout for the Saints and arguably their only consistent defender as he racked up 10 marks and 4 rebound 50s.
The Bombers cant afford another loss if they have any hopes of playing finals, they also need to rely on Sydney losing all three of their remaining games, which seems unlikely. However, the slim chance that the Dons still have has brought Joe Daniher’s fitness into question over the past few days. The key forward hasn’t played since Round 7 but could face a match simiulation at the end of the week to gauge his fitness.
Other than Daniher, the Bombers injury list actually looks pretty good at the moment as only Shaun McKernan, Josh Begley and Patrick Ambrose are missing from their best 22.
2017 Round 17 – St Kilda (7.15.57) lt. Essendon (17.16.118)
2016 Round 16 – Essendon (14.14.98) lt. St Kilda (17.7.109)
2016 Round 9 – St Kilda (16.13.109) dft. Essendon (9.9.63)
2015 Round 14 – Essendon (8.4.52) lt. St Kilda (25.12.162)
2015 Round 5 – St Kilda (11.14.80) lt. Essendon (11.16.82)
The Saints had a decent run and did just enough to keep fans hopeful in their Round 13-19 stretch against Gold Coast, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Carlton, Richmond and GWS. However, last weekend’s game against the Bulldogs was awful. The Saints showed no fight at all and had real trouble with the Dogs slick ball movement and fast play style.
Essendon are possibly the best exponents of that play style in the league, which throws up some problems for the Saints on Friday night. Essendon will be realistic about their chances of making finals, but that doesn’t mean they won’t come out firing on all cylinders on Friday night in an attempt to win their last three games.
The 30.5 point line seems about right for this game and could go either way depending on what type of Saints team comes out to play. It’s a fairly high total point line in this one of 178.5. However, all of the last five games between these two teams have resulted in more than 170 points and the Dons are coming off a 210 point game against the Hawks last weekend. The Saints and Dogs put up 171 on Saturday night so we think this could be another high scorer.
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