2017 Oaks Day Preview & Betting Tips

Wed, 08/11/2017 - 11:27pm, tim_tips

Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Kennedy Oaks Day at Flemington on Thursday, November 9th.

We have a nine-race card for Day 3 of the carnival, headlined by the Group 1 Kennedy Oaks over 2500m for the three-year-old fillies.

The track will be a Good 3 and the rail moves out 3m today, as opposed to being in the true position like it was on Derby Day and Melbourne Cup Day. Expect runners to head to the outside rail in the straight races.

We have betting tips and comments for every race below!

FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS

Best Bet: Race 6 Badajoz EW
Best Value: Race 3 Valac EW

Race 1

This is a really tough way to start the day and the best way to approach this could even be playing a trifecta or similar. We’ve got a capacity field of 16 here and a number of horses you could make a claim for. LINGUIST comes off a big win at Ballarat last start when leading all the way. Both of her wins have come over 1600m, and both have been by 4L+. Her other win was also at her fourth run back from a spell, which is where she is at right now in her preparation. She gets to 1700m here which is no concern, but it remains to be seen whether they lead or take a sit from barrier 12 given there looks to be a bit of speed in the race. With Linda Meech booked I’d suggest they’ll look to lead. Worth noting that the horse was entered for a race the other day but was scratched in preference for this. SWORN EVIDENCE beat Pinot three starts back and ran 2nd to Our Crown Mistress last start, who then came out and won again on Melbourne Cup Day. She will be set for this by Darren Weir, and she was well backed last start when just warming up late over 1400m. The step up to 1700m looks ideal and Craig Williams sticks with her. Should relish the good tempo expected. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Weir’s other runner, MY NIKITA, do something here at big odds. Once again, he’ll have her set for this. She won two races in NZ, over 1400m and 2000m, so the step up to 1700m will help her here. She’s never placed in her first three runs in a preparation, so her record fourth up and beyond stands at two wins from four starts. I’M A PRINCESS is another to include at value odds for Tony McEvoy and Jamie Kah, a winning combination on Melbourne Cup Day. SO SPLENDID, HISTORY REPEATS and WINKELMANN others to consider. Tough start and maybe trifectas are the way to go. If anything, backing Sworn Evidence with something small on I’m A Princess and My Nikita.

TIP: Sworn Evidence / I’m A Princess EW

 

Race 2

Interested in the two foreign runners here at the top of the weights. VON TUNZELMAN comes off a win over 1600m in New Zealand, and was a Stakes winner over 2000m last preparation before running 6th in Group 1 company. He’s finished in the top two in both starts on firm ground, and the further he got into his last preparation the better he got, so fourth up here should see him go very close. Comes out of the very astute Murray Baker yard, who doesn’t bring runners to Australia just to make up numbers. Blake Shinn on, good price at $7.50. MR GARCIA is another international, out of the Andreas Wohler yard. He’s spent his career racing in the UK thus far, and has been gelded in the time since his last start. Based on his victories earlier in his career, he could easily win this, and when these sorts of horses are transferred to Wohler, they generally improve significantly. Draws well, Kerrin McEvoy on, goes very close at $4. SHARDS should improve third up here, CARRAIG AONAIR is racing consistently well, while HOGMANAY represents Waller and Bowman. Keen to take on EBEDIYIN, who Weir has said doesn’t appreciate the firm ground at Flemington. This will be very firm. Backing both internationals at the good prices.

TIP: Mr Garcia / Von Tunzelman EW

 

Race 3

Really keen to bet here on three horses in particular. The first is SILVERA, again for Tony McEvoy and Jamie Kah. This horse won his first two starts this preparation, including a victory over 1600m at this track over Carraig Aoniar, who has since franked the form. He then ran 3rd last start behind Odeon and Dodging Bullets, both subsequent winners of their next start! Back in trip from 1700m to 1400m here, draws well and should give this a good shake at $4.80. VALAC has had two starts in Australia for two wins under the care of the Lindsay Park team. They were both in easier class than this but he seems to be going very well, and provided he gets a good run from barrier 13, I expect him to be right in the finish at $10. HARBOUR GREY is the big value in the race at $21. His run first up was good over 1200m at Geelong and he now steps up to 1400m. He has a good record over this track and distance and he also drops significantly in weight for today. Well over the odds and worth including. Happy to take on URBAN RULER who won well for us first up but has had three starts for zero placings when second up. That’s enough for me to steer clear. The interesting runner is TIME TO TORQUE who won in Brisbane last start and the runner-up has subsequently gone on to win in Sydney. Craig Williams is a notable jockey booking and he’s definitely in with a chance. CHALK not without a hope. Very keen to bet, backing Silvera from Valac and Harbour Grey.

TIP: Silvera / Valac EW

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Race 4

This is a slightly difficult race which could go any way with the big field of runners, but despite drawing barrier 16, I’m thinking NIGHT’S WATCH is simply better than this lot. He’s always promised plenty and showed exactly what he’s capable of last start when winning over 1400m at Bendigo. Needs to prove himself over 1600m here and will need to come from well back in the field but he looks the best horse in the race. ASTRO CASTRO won sensationally on debut down the Flemington straight and then tapered off. He’s returned in god order this campaign and won nicely at Geelong last start. Draws softly which should help him at his first go at 1600m. Gets a negative jockey change but the gate really helps his cause. Happy to include at double figure odds. ANOTHER COLDIE, PRIAR ECLIPSE and STRAIGHT JACKET are others worth consideration.

TIP: Night’s Watch / Astro Castro EW

 

Race 5

Another race that I’m keen to bet into here, but it’s a very good field, highlighted by the fact six of the seven runners are single figures in the market. ULMANN carries top weight here but it was a really good win last start in the Moonga Stakes, and Darren Weir said post-race that he thought the horse would need one more run. That tells me they’ve targeted this race all along and we should see him improve if that’s the case. He started single figures in Group 1 company last prep and is likely to tackle Group 1 races in Perth in a few weeks. Happy to take $5.50 here. SUPPLY AND DEMAND was simply enormous first up in Sydney when charging home over 1400m to run 2nd with 60.5kg. Down in weight here and drawn well. Only concern would be his somewhat flat second up record, but the Waterhouse/Bott stable is absolutely flying in Melbourne. FOX HALL looks a progressive type and should be going close on what we’ve seen this prep. Could make a case for most runners here but keen to back Ulmann and save on Supply And Demand.

TIP: Ulmann


Race 6

BALL OF MUSCLE has some very strong Sydney form leading into this, with placings behind the likes of Redzel and In Her Time who both go around in the Darley Classic on Saturday. But at the price, I’m keen to take him on. Interested in the price about BADAJOZ, who is racing in very good form and importantly, draws barrier 12 here, so should be able to get to the outside rail quickly. Was desperately unlucky over 955m at the Valley last start and won two on the trot before that. Nice each way price at $6.50 here. SHAF ran 2nd to Badajoz first up from a spell and meets him 1kg better here. He’s a winner over the track and distance and comes up a good each way price at $10. Slight concern over his second up record but he’s definitely one to include. THELBURG is a very interesting runner and it’s telling that Craig Williams sticks with him for the ride. He was desperately unlucky fist up in the race that Badajoz ran 3rd in, going to the line under a stranglehold. He was only fair second up last preparation over 1200m here, but he was $31 on that occasion. THE QUARTERBACK tailed off to be beaten 33L first up but pulled up with an internal issue. His best would win this. I’M TELLING YA seems to go well down the Flemington straight. Competitive race, backing BADAJOZ and THELBURG.

TIP: Badajoz / Thelburg EW

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Race 7

Good race and another that I’m keen to bet into with a few horses at nice prices. SAMBRO is probably the deserved favourite after fighting on strongly to finish 2nd to Levendi in the Carbine Club Stakes last weekend. On the very quick back up here and draws nicely in barrier 7. $4 is probably a fair price but Waller and Bowman haven’t exactly had the greatest carnival so far (more so the latter). BLACK SAIL has run 2nd to Octabello and Temple Of Bel in its past two starts, and that’s nice form for a race like this. Damian Lane keeps the ride and draws well in barrier 6 for a stable that’s in great form. $11 is a nice price. SKY BOY won easily in Sydney last start and two starts ago finished alongside Sambro in a race behind Kaonic. The difference was that Sky Boy was luckless and only saw daylight very late. Kaonic would have won the Carbine Club, and Sambro has since franked the form by running 2nd in that race. Barrier 14 is no help, but the price is attractive for Sky Boy at $8. PAGEANTRY has had absolutely no luck this preparation. I was keen last start and once again he had no luck, when held up the entire straight. He’s another that draws poorly here, but at least he will get a crack at them. Keen to take on SWEET VICTORY, who comes off a 6L win at Hawkesbury. Not sure how that form will work out here though. IRISH VEGA another on the quick back up from the Carbine Club where it ran 3rd. Can go well. WOULDA THOUGHT so can be forgiven for last start and can measure up. Looking to play Sky Boy, Black Sail and Pageantry.

TIP: Sky Boy EW/ Black Sail EW

 

Race 8

ALOISIA looks to be a deadest moral here. She was runner up in the Group 1 JJ Atkins in the winter, before resuming with a luckless run at Caulfield first up. Since then, she’s won the Group 1 Thousand Guineas in dominant style, defeating subsequent Group 1 winner Shoals in the process, and last start towelled up the in-form Cliff’s Edge by over three lengths. There was a further five lengths back to the third horse, and the performance stamped her as a potential superstar. The step up in trip seems like it will be no issue. PINOT has been impressive in winning her past two and will go straight to the front and give them all something to chase. LUVALUVA won the Wakeful Stakes on Derby Day and tackles this on the quick back up. John Sargent is a master at setting horses for their grand finals, and is especially good with staying fillies. RIMRAAM was very competitive in the Wakeful Stakes before being run down late by Luvaluva. She should be thereabouts once again. The two at very long odds I’d throw in are RELIABLE DAME and SWEET MISCHIEF. Reliable Dame worked home strongly last start in the Geelong Classic, beaten just over two lengths on the line. Should appreciate the 2500m. Sweet Mischief worked home well without much luck two starts ago behind Pinot and can be forgiven in a race that just didn’t suit her last start. BRING ME ROSES another at good odds that could be forgiven for last start. Aloisia looks the one.

TIP: Aloisia

 

Race 9

Very good but very competitive race to end the day. I narrowed this down to three main chances. The first is DEBONAIRLY who will likely jump straight to the front and try to run them off their feet. Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have been on fire in Melbourne and it’s by doing exactly this. She’s trialled twice leading into this race and should be ready to run a big race. The query is she’s drawn barrier 6 and will need to navigate to the outside rail. Prepared to take the $5.50 in the hope she can. SMART COUPE is a smart horse and wasn’t overly suited first up at Moonee Valley. I think she’s very good but once again, draws an inside barrier and will need to get to the outside rail. SHE’S POPULAR led all the way on debut at Kilmore to win by more than two lengths. She’s suited by the barrier draw out wide here so will be right in the best part of the track. David Hayes said this was his best chance of the day and he really likes her. She looks an appealing each way bet at $17. I also really liked DIVINE MESSENGER after a complete forgive run last start. Her big problem is barrier 1 here which really puts me off, which is a shame because she looked a nice chance at $21. WRAPSODY another to consider, while I Am Excited drops back to the sprint trips after failing in Group 1 races over further.

TIP: Debonairly / She’s Popular EW

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QUADDIE (wide - skinny)

1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8                   3, 4, 6, 8

2, 4, 5, 6, 11, 14               2, 4, 5, 14

1                                       1

1, 6, 7, 11, 13, 16             1, 6, 7, 11, 13, 16

$100 = 46%                      $100 = 104%

 

 

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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

 

 

 

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