Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for the 2017 Golden Rose Day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday, September 23rd.
We have a stacked nine-race card, headlined by the Group 1 Golden Rose and supported by the Group 2 Shannon Stakes, Group 2 Golden Pendant and Group 3 Gloaming Stakes. It’s set to be a scorcher at Rosehill with temperatures expected to reach 33 degrees, so the track will be somewhere around the Good 3 mark.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below. You can also check out our Caulfield Racing Preview & Betting Tips here and our Belmont Racing Preview & Tips here!
Listen to @Tim_Tips Racing Preview with the Before You Bet Podcast!
In the first episode of the Before You Bet Podcast our horse racing specialist @Tim_Tips chats about the 2017 Golden Rose Stakes Day and previews and offers tips from all the biggest Australian horse races for this Saturday, September 23rd! Listen to the podcast on the media player below, or you can find the Before You Bet podcast on iTunes!
ROSEHILL RACING TIPS – GOLDEN ROSE DAY
Best Bet: Race 9 - Zumbelina
Best Value: Race 7 - Dracarys
Race 1
Prepared to take on the favourite BEAU GESTE here, who comes up short around the $2.45 mark. He was great on debut at Canterbury but I thought he was slightly disappointing first up from a spell when 3rd behind Super Ex and Merovee. He had a soft run and couldn’t sprint with them, and while I’m sure he’s improved since that run, I’m keen to take him on at the price. I’m firmly with PARET for Chris Waller and Hugh Bowman. Waller has a big opinion of this horse, saying he is “pretty special” and the early money has already come for him since markets opened. He settled last on debut at Canterbury before sailing down the outside to record an impressive victory, and while he’ll probably settle close to last again from the widest barrier, the Rosehill track will give him every chance to come over the top again. Schofield off, Bowman on, big positive. He’s marked around $3.30 in the majority of places but there is still $3.80 available at Bet365 if you can get on. Hardest to beat could be MOLTEN who has won both starts this prep on the provincials. McEvoy rides for the Snowdens and barrier 1 will give him every hope.
TIP: Paret
Race 2
The big move in early betting has been for DEE I CEE who has been $11 into $6, which is also interesting given the stable has the short priced favourite BROADSIDE in the race. I think this is a pretty dangerous betting race with the small numbers and I’m not very keen on anything. BROADSIDE should lead and be tough to run down after bouncing back from a poor first up run to win the Newcastle Cup last start. AUVRAY ran 2nd in that race (beaten 0.3L), with ADMIRAL JELLO back in 3rd (beaten 1.75L). Broadside rises 4kg in weight, Auvray 3kg and Admiral Jello 1kg. I think it will be between Broadside and Auvray once again here, and although Broadside is undefeated third up from a spell, I just think it’s a dangerous race to be taking $2.10 in, so I’ve gone the way of Auvray who is around the $3.40 mark. Freedman has this horse going well and if he’s close enough on the turn he may be able to get another win. Bet cautiously.
TIP: Auvray
Race 3
Highway Handicaps can also be tricky betting races, but I do think DON’T GIVE A DAMN is one of the better bets on the card for the day. He bolted in to win his maiden on debut at Goulburn, and backed that up by going neck-and-neck with Suncraze in a harder edition of this race last start. I think Suncraze is a pretty smart horse, and I love the way they cleared out from 3rd. That generally suggests the first two have bit of ability, and there were some horses back in the field that had performed well in previous Highway Handicaps. So I think that’s a good formline to follow and I think he’s well placed to win today. Carries ‘top weight’ after scratchings but that shouldn’t matter with the compressed weight scale. Barrier 4, Kerrin McEvoy. The only query I can think of is the 1500m, but very keen nonetheless and $2.30 looks about right. APOCOLYPTIC FUN could be the hardest to beat after a win at Tamworth last start over 1600m. MAJESTIC PEDRILLE and ONLY CHOICE next best.
TIP: Don’t Give A Damn
Race 4
Waller has a mortgage on this race with the top two in the market and it’s very hard to see anything beating them. ALWARD was flying before failing last start when dropping back to 1800m and carrying a big weight. Back up to the 2000m now which he is undefeated at from three starts. Will get back from barrier 7 of 8 but the rise back up in distance means he gets conditions to suit here and it’d be no surprise to see him win. But I do think the race is UP ‘N’ ROLLING’s to lose. Waller listed this as his best of the day and suggested Up ‘N’ Rolling probably has a class edge on Alward. He’s two from two this prep and both have been dominant. Last start was over this distance so that’s no issue and with McEvoy on from barrier 1 I think he’ll be winning at the even money quote. IMANUI will run his usual honest race and I suspect we’ll see some improvement from ROMAN SON second up.
TIP: Up ‘N’ Rolling
Race 5
The first of the feature races here. I noted in the podcast that I thought this was pretty well a two-horse race in my opinion, despite the market suggesting there’s a bit more depth to it. Really keen on DAWN WALL at the $3.50 and I expect her to even start favourite come jump time. She was backed very heavily first up when running 2nd to WASHINGTON HEIGHTS, beaten a nose. That suggests to me she’s come back in great order, and despite WASHINGTON HEIGHTS getting a 1.5kg weight swing in his favour, I think the step up to 1500m for DAWN WALL should swing things in her favour. She tackled 1400m first up, so I think we’ll see her improve a few couple of lengths here with only 53kg on her back. She won dominantly over this distance second up last prep and I’m really keen at the price. WASHINGTON HEIGHTS is no slouch though, and he should be undefeated this prep. He finished off strongly last start to nose out Dawn Wall, but the 1500m is a slight query to me, whereas it will definitely suit her. He was having his third run of the campaign when they met last start, while that was her first, so I really think she’s the one to beat here. LUBITON le last start and failed in Group 3 company. Even though she won twice leading into that race, I can’t see her turning around that defeat from last start. IMPOSING LASS gets a 3kg weight swing on Lubiton from her defeat two starts ago, but I thought she could have done more last start too. EURO ANGEL will be thereabouts but she has had her chance to win.
TIP: Dawn Wall
Race 6
This is a tricky little race. Godolphin has the top two in the market here and I’ve gone with the second elect on top – SANCTIONED. This horse has had the two runs back from a spell now and both races have turned out to be very strong form races. First up he ran 3rd, beaten 2.5L behind Dracarys and Gold Standard, both who are live chances in the Golden Rose, and last start he ran 2nd, beaten once again by Gold Standard in what was another very strong race. He’s stepped up from 1300m to 1500m and now tackles 1800m, he’s third up, has Bowman on board and draws well. I also find the booking of Josh Parr on ASTORIA a bit strange as he replaces Tye Angland who won on him last start. I just think that if Bowman is riding for Godolphin (or more specifically James Cummings) he would be riding the stable’s best chance. There’s no real knock on ASTORIA. He’s done well to run 3rd first up in a strong race behind Addictive Nature and Assimilate (which can be tied into Dracarys and Gold Standard), and then won second up in Group 3 company over 1600m, beating what could be a handy horse in Merovee. SULLY is an interesting runner up from Melbourne. Won two from two this prep and the way he finished off last start suggests he does have real ability, but he’ll need to be more professional in this tougher race. I do have a question over BM64 form in Melbourne being strong enough to win a race like this. THY KINGDOM COME could be the value at double figure odds. Was horrible first up but bounced back to win by 6L last start over 1600m at Kembla. Will eat up 1800m but could be on a Derby path so whether he’s sharp enough is the question. AUGUSTUS not hopeless.
TIP: Sanctioned / Thy Kingdom Come EW
Race 7 – Group 1 Golden Rose
The big race of the day is set to be an absolute cracker! This race will be a much different race to the Run To The Rose two weeks ago which MENARI won ultra-impressively, but I do still think he’s comfortably the horse to beat. His two wins this prep have been nothing short of outstanding. Last start he flew across to sit outside the leader from the wide barrier and let down nicely to record a convincing win, and while he’s not yet proved himself at 1400m I do think he’s got the class to handle it. Tactics will be interesting – whether they go forward again from the wide barrier remains to be seen, but I think he’s a serious Group 1 horse and the price looks about right. PARIAH ran 2nd to him last start and has absolutely no excuses, Menari was just too good. However, the Snowdens know how to set a horse for its grand final, and this is it. There’s no doubt Pariah will be suited by the 1400, so provided he gets a good ride from the wide gate he should be finishing strongly once again. I think the horse at big odds that represents value is Pariah’s stablemate DRACARYS. He beat home Gold Standard last start and Gold Standard then came out and won again, yet Gold Standard is $12 here while Dracarys is $21. Dracarys also pulled up with a puncture wound in his hoof, which could explain his absence since that win, but that just makes it more impressive and he’s had a trial in between to keep him ticking along. Barrier 1 should see him get a nice run and I think he can outrun his quote. ASSIMILATE is similar to Dracarys and they finished alongside each other two starts ago. Assimilate then came out and ran huge when coming from last to go down by a nose. Bowman retains the ride and he can also go well. MERCHANT NAVY is the interesting runner coming up from Melbourne. He’s undefeated and has won twice over 1400m so ticks that box. I’d suggest this Sydney form is a touch stronger than the Melbourne form but he should run well. GOLD STANDARD is flying and will likely lead. He’ll give them something to chase. FORMALITY will also go forward from the wide gate. She’s flying too but 1400m is some concern and she’ll need to improve to beat the boys. CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES has been luckless and can go well but again, will need to improve to beat the boys. TRAPEZE ARTIST the blowout, third up from a spell with blinkers reapplied. Does look Menari’s race, Dracarys the value.
TIP: Menari / Dracarys EW (Best Value)
Race 8
Great race but a tough one betting-wise. This is D-Day for OMEI SWORD. She’s had excuses in her first two starts this prep but I’m not sure that’s enough to convince me to back her. First up she knuckled terribly and still picked herself up to finish well enough, and last start she was taken back to last from the wide barrier before finishing off fairly. From barrier 3 today I’d expect to see her ridden much closer to the speed, and up to 1400m third up from a spell, she absolutely has no excuses today. I said on the podcast that if she doesn’t win today she may well be cooked. With that said, I’ll only be backing her to cover my other bets. I found it really difficult to separate a number of these but ended up with an each way play on DAYSEE DOOM at $5.00/$2.00. I thought she ran very well first up without a great deal of luck, and second up last prep she ran 4th in the Coolmoore Classic, beaten just 1.2L. She’s undefeated at this distance and has placed in five of her six runs at the track, so she profiles nicely. The big negative is the wide draw and the booking of apprentice Andrew Adkins, which dents any confidence, but she should run into a placing at least. I personally thought DIXIE BLOSSOMS was slightly disappointing last start after going forward to sit outside the leader. Perhaps she just needed that run, and she has won twice from three starts when second up from a spell, so she could improve sharply today with a slightly quieter ride. 1400m suits. DANISH TWIST was desperately unlucky not to finish much closer first up, going to the line under a strange hold. She typically improves second up so despite the wide gate she can go close. The concern is only two placings from six starts at the track. I’ll be taking on BONNY O’REILLY today. I thought she was entitled to do a bit more last start. She will go straight to the front or box seat from the plum draw today, which will give her every chance, but I think the races she was winning throughout the winter and in Brisbane were of slightly lesser class than what she faces here. SWEET REDEMPTION could be the value given her great third up record.
TIP: Daysee Doom EW
Race 9
Best bet of the day here. I think this race has ZUMBELINA’s name written all over it. She was very impressive first up when running down Tango Rain. Waller told us to forget last prep because she was unsuited on the wet tracks, and suggested she’d bounce back on the firm tracks, which is exactly what she did. She’ll be even better up to 1400m here, a distance she’s won twice at from three starts. She’s undefeated from four starts at the track, has won twice over track and distance, draws barrier 1 again (same as last start), and despite the rise in weight she looks tremendously hard to beat. I noted on the podcast I expected her to start much closer to $2.30 rather than the $2.70 we snapped up, and she’s already been backed into $2.50. SCREAMARR won well first up in midweek grade but has performed well in better races so he can go well again. HOGMANAY may need a touch further but he’s got a great record at the track and a great record third up from a spell. WAYANKA is flying and looks the hardest to beat after two wins from his past three starts.
TIP: Zumbelina (Best Bet)
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
