Last week's AFL betting tips were extremely promising as we headed into Sunday almost +6 units, but a few surprising results meant the round ended up +3.315 units overall. Hopefully we can improve with more profits as I offer my 2017 AFL Round 6 preview and betting tips.
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2017 AFL Round 7 Betting Tips
St Kilda Saints vs GWS Giants (Friday, May 5th at 7:50pm AEST)
The Saints come into Round 7 on the back of a season-steadying victory over the fallen Hawks, but will have their work cut out for them on a Friday night against the premiership-fancied GWS Giants.
The last time the Saints and Giants met at Etihad was in Round 5 of last season with the Giants getting the job done by 41 points. The recent form of the Saints has seen the bookies set the line at around the two-goal mark, which seems a little low to me. I love what the Saints have been doing - especially with the addition of the hard-nosed Koby Stevens and Jack Steele, and with Jack Steven back to his best after missing a few weeks of football. However, you just have to think the GWS outclass the Saints. They weren't at their best against the Dogs last week and still got the job done. They lead the AFL in clearances (compared to St Kilda ranked last) and are 4th in centre clearances (where the Saints are ranked 13th) which will likely be the difference in this game. The Saints have also really struggled in the ruck department, so expect Shane Mumford to monster this game. With Toby Greene out on suspension, I wouldn't hate taking the Giants by 1-39 points here as it probably won't be a blowout, but I think a 12-point line is too generous to pass up. Jump on quick at Bet365 as the line is 14.5 elsewhere at time of publishing.
Tip: GWS Giants at the line (-12.5) - 1.89 at Bet365 (2 units)
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Adelaide Crows (Saturday, May 6th at 1:45pm AEST)
North Melbourne finally got the monkey off the back with their first win of the 2017 AFL season last week. Unfortunately, it's unlikely they will be making it two in the row as they face the dreaded challenge of the Adelaide Crows in Round 7.
There isn't too much I can say about the Adelaide Crows that hasn't been said the last few weeks. They are simply having one of the best starts to an AFL season of all time. Their scoring prowess is unbelievable and if they keep it up, it's hard to see them losing too many games. It's not just the forward line that opposition need to worry about, however, with their midfield batting almost as deep as GWS and the Bulldogs, while Rory Sloane is now equal Brownlow Medal favourite (he's leading my 2017 Brownlow rolling leaderboard). Their defence isn't too shabby either, conceding the third least points in the comp - which is ridiculous considering they average 17 points more than their nearest scoring rivals Port Adelaide. On current form, it would be ludicrous to think North Melbourne can win this game, so the question becomes how much do the Crows win by? I wasn't overly impressed with the Roos victory last week, mostly because their clearance work is some of the worst in the comp. Adelaide should continue their fantastic year with another solid win. I’m happy to take the them at the line here.
Tip: Adelaide at the line (-37.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1.5 units)
Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues (Saturday, May 6th at 2:10pm AEST)
Historic rivals Collingwood and Carlton couldn't have planned the lead-up to this clash any better as they both come off huge confidence boosting victories. No doubt that will mean the MCG will be packed on Saturday as fans look to see one of their clubs score a rare back-to-back victory.
Like most footy fans I didn't think the Pies were a chance last week and I wouldn't have picked them even if they weren't coming off a five-day break. Their effort defied logic a little, so you have to think that there might be some residual effects from that short break this week. They simply played a more 'complete' game than usual against the Cats with the biggest difference converting their inside 50 opportunities. It also helps when you keep Joel Selwood very quiet with a hard tag from Levi Greenwood, while Patrick Dangerfield also had less impact than usual. It will be interesting to see if Collingwood go with the same method against Marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs. If they do, however, I think you will find the Blues get a lot of their ball movement from the likes of Kade Simpson and Sam Docherty who absolutely starred against the Swans last week. I think it's too easy to get over-excited about the Pies win over the Cats and while scalping the Swans doesn't seem like a big deal considering their form, it's the way the Blues went about it. I will be taking a small play on the Blues at the line here as I think they are a small chance to win, but can certainly can keep it close - especially if some wet weather comes.
Tip: Carlton at the line (+20.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Port Adelaide Power vs West Coast Eagles (Saturday, May 6th at 4:05pm ACST)
One of the more interesting matchups of Round 7 is when the Eagles head to Adelaide Oval on Saturday afternoon to take on Port Adelaide. Both these teams are top 4 contenders, so it will be interesting to see if one of these teams stands up and makes a statement.
Much of the talk around the Eagles this season has been that they are 'flat-track bullies', so there will be plenty of detractors in regard to this game being played in Adelaide. However, if we get more specific with West Coast's away record, the MCG is actually where they have the most trouble. In fact, they have won the last two games against Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval and four of the last five trips in general to the ground. The two games the Eagles have lost this season have both been at the MCG, so perhaps they will prepare a little mentally better for this road trip considering their Adelaide Oval form. Port Adelaide have been very good so far this season, but this is another spot where I like the underdog to cover the line. I think the Eagles should win the midfield battle, while the Power backline is relatively inexperienced and might struggle with West Coast star Josh J Kennedy who has solid past form against Port Adelaide. Charlie Dixon and Robbie Gray have been hitting the scoreboard lately, but West Coast defender Jeremey McGovern is a completely different beast to deal with. If the Eagles are smashed this weekend, there is something well and truly wrong above the shoulders.
Tip: West Coast at the line (+20.5) - $1.91 at Bet365 (1 unit)
Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats (Saturday, May 6th at 7:25pm AEST)
The Cats will be looking to make amends for their horrible loss to the Pies last week and should be able to do just that against the Suns on the Gold Coast this Saturday night.
The Suns weren’t completely horrible in Round 6, but it doesn't look good to be the only team to lose the Roos so far this season - especially when Gary Ablett had one of the best individual games of all time. They fought the game out which was refreshing, but couldn't get the job done after they were a rotation down with Matt Rosa going off concussed. Ultimately it was their defensive efforts that struggled with the lack of Steven May really starting to show after a 6-goal haul from Ben Brown. If Tom Hawkins can do the same, the Suns will struggle to keep this one closes. They also have to worry about the Geelong midfield and it will be interesting to see if they take a leaf out of Collingwood's book and try for a hard tag. Regardless, I don't think this is a good matchup for the Suns. Forget last week and take Geelong's game as an anomaly. They should respond.
Tip: Geelong at the line (-20.5) - $1.90 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Note: There are whispers Patrick Dangerfield might not play this game. Still happy with Geelong at this line if he is out, but watch for line movements as you might be able to gain a couple of points.
Western Bulldogs vs Richmond Tigers (Saturday, May 6th at 7:25pm AEST)
After their 0-5 start, the Tigers were brought back to earth last week with a 76-point shellacking at the hands of Adelaide. It will be interesting to see how they respond as they take on the Bulldogs at Etihad.
Despite the Bulldogs seemingly playing poor football for the first few rounds of football and just scraping through for their wins, they showed us last week they can still rise to the occasion, challenging a team of the Giants' calibre in Canberra. They were actually every chance to win that game, but it was tough once Tom Liberatore was off with concussion early in the 4th quarter and their poor kicking cost them in the end (they had seven more scoring shots than GWS). This should be one of the best games of the round, but another one I think the Tigers will find too tough. Toby Nankervis being out is a huge loss as he would have been able to expose the Bulldogs' poor ruck stocks. I think the Dogs play a relatively similar style to Adelaide (without the epic firepower up forward) which the Tigers clearly struggled with. The Dogs also have an extra two day's break compared to the Tigers. Not expecting a blowout, but think the Dogs should win this one.
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 (Under 39.5) - $2.10 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions (Sunday, May 7th at 1:10pm AEST)
Before last week's clash against the Blues most punters were thinking the Swans were about to win two games in a row. But we might have to re-evaluate this team altogether as they head into this clash against the Lions on the back of a horrible defeat at the hands of Carlton last week. The one bit of solace they will take in Round 7 is at they face the Lions on their home turf at the SCG.
Sydney have no doubt had a lot of injuries this season, but their troubles go far deeper than that. None of their stars have lived up to their usual standards this season, so you can't place all the blame on their inexperienced teammates. It's hard to say their performance against Carlton will be a 'wake up call' when they should have already had a moment like that, but perhaps this game being at the SCG helps in that facet. Considering how poor Brisbane have been, I do lean towards the Swans responding with a big win, but I'm not brave enough to pull the trigger when the line is so massive (40 points). For those who are brave enough, take note the Swans have defeated the Lions in the last nine meetings and by 60 points on four of those nine occasions.
Tip: No Bet.
Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks (Sunday, May 7th at 3:20pm AEST)
Much like the Swans, Hawthorn's season has been a complete disaster. Yes, they had a bit of respite a fortnight ago when they got a win against the Eagles, but their 75-pont defeat at the hands of the Saints last week was telling - especially considering it was at their 'fortress' in Launceston. Their confidence is surely at an all-time low as they head into Round 7 against the Demons.
The Demons deserve to be favourites in this game, but despite winning last week, they played some horrible football against the Bombers. In fact, they may not have won if it wasn't for poor accuracy from Joe Daniher who kicked 6 behinds in the first half. The Demons cleaned their act up in the late stages of the game, however, and finished up with a solid 38-point victory. The Hawks are in horrible form, but if they stand up and respond like they did against the Eagles, the Demons won't find this too easy. I really think if they don't win games like this, they aren't serious contenders for the top eight. They still have ruck troubles, but should be able to win the midfield battle with their talented young crop, while Jesse Hogan is likely to return after missing last week following his father passing away. I'm not overly excited about it, but I will be taking the Demons to cover the small line.
Tip: Melbourne at the line (-14.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Fremantle Dockers vs Essendon Bombers (Sunday, May 7th at 2:40pm AWST)
The Dockers surprised us all by winning three games in a row - including a victory over the Bulldogs - but they couldn't make it four with a loss to the Eagles in Round 7. They are every chance to get back in the winner's circle this week, however, as they take on the Bombers at Domain on Sunday afternoon.
Essendon looked tired against the Demons last week, which is probably fair enough considering their short break after Anzac Day. If they play like that again, they won't be able to defeat the Dockers this week. Joe Daniher needs to address his accuracy woes, while there isn't much cohesiveness in the midfield at the moment. That's where the Dockers will be able to win this game as they are ranked 5th for centre clearances compared to the Bombers in 11th. I just think the Dockers have shown a bit more than the Bombers so far this season and while I don't think it will be big margin, I'm happy to get on the Dockers.
Tip: Fremantle by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
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