Before I kick off my latest AFL betting tips I just want to give a shout out to my colleague 'Punting In Danger' who managed to pick 13/17 winners in the two weeks I was awol - a solid enough effort that had me wondering if I would still have a job when I returned! Hopefully I can live up to that benchmark and add to a season tally that while still in profit, hasn't been as lucrative as past years. With that, let's get on with my AFL Round 18 preview and betting tips.
2017 AFL Round 18 Betting Tips
Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats (Friday, July 21st at 7:20pm ACST)
It's a classic top of the table Friday night battle to kick off Round 18 with the 2nd-place Cats travelling to Adelaide Oval to take on the ladder-leading Crows. Perhaps too early to call this a Grand Final preview, but no doubt these two teams are in contention for deep runs in September.
After a bit of a midseason slump, the Crows are back to their early-season best that sees them as premiership favourites with Australian bookmakers. They have won four of their last five including a 46-point win in Darwin against the Top 8 Demons last week - all with Rory Sloane and Jake Lever heading to the sidelines during the game. They face an in-form Cats on Friday night, but with star Patrick Dangerfield in a moonboot on Monday morning, it's looking likely they will be without the player who kicked 5 goals last week and single-handedly insured a win against their rival Hawks. The Cats do have a great record against the Crows, winning six of the last seven, but without Danger and with this game at Adelaide Oval, you have to think this will be too tough. The Crows are the highest scoring team in the comp (averaging 113 points) and in their seven wins at Adelaide Oval this year they have won six by more than 50 points. The Cats aren't without a chance (they even have a solid record at this venue) but with Danger on the sidelines (or at the very least nursing a very sore injury) we will be taking the Crows at the margin. Although it seems unlikely, of course, be sure to watch developments around Danger just in case it turns out he is completely fine.
Tip: Adelaide by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (Saturday, July 22nd at 1:45pm AEST)
The Bombers come into Round 18 against North Melbourne on the back of a very important victory over the Saints last week and now need to continue their form and rack together a few more wins if they are going to make the finals.
If the Bombers lose to the Roos on Saturday that will make it three losses to the bottom three sides this season after previous defeats at the hands of the Lions and Blues. It's hard to imagine the fast-paced attacking side who have, at times, decimated fellow Top 8 contenders could possibly lose to teams like the Lions, but they have no doubt been inconsistent. They know if they lose this game, it's going to be very hard to make the finals, so it will be interesting if they can face that pressure head on and play the football we know they are capable of. North Melbourne have a great record against the Bombers, but I think they will struggle to match-up against them this time around. The Bombers are simply too quick and the Roos have shown they struggle against quick teams - especially at Etihad where they have lost 8 of 10 this season. That's where the Bombers defeated the Saints and you can see that being the case here. Think the Bombers should win this comfortably and if not, there is probably an argument to be made they don't deserve to play finals this year.
Tip: Essendon at the line (-23.5) - $1.91 at Bet365 (1.5 units)
Melbourne Demons vs Port Adelaide Power (Saturday, July 22nd at 2:10pm AEST)
There are multiple teams chomping at the heels of Melbourne's spot in the Top 8 and they might just find that spot compromised by the end of Round 18 if Port Adelaide have anything to say about it. Regardless, this Saturday afternoon clash at the MCG shapes as one of the most interesting of the week.
The Demons will be happy to return to Melbourne after a tough loss to the Crows in the Northern Territory last week. They simply looked outclassed and I think that might end up being the case again against Port Adelaide. They have almost 7 more inside 50s per game than the Demons and average 10 points more per game. Port don't play at the MCG often - and actually haven’t played the Demons in Melbourne since 2013 - but their one outing this year saw them easily overcome the Pies and I don't think it will be a problem this week. You have to think the Demons will be competitive, but I like the look of the Power here. The only sweat is making sure Paddy Ryder is on the park after being rested in the last quarter after a rolled ankle last week. He's in All Australian form and will be needed against Max Gawn.
Tip: Port Adelaide by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.25 at CrownBet (2 units)
Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Suns (Saturday, July 22nd at 4:35pm AEST)
What can I say about the Western Bulldogs that hasn't already been said? They are a long way off their premiership form of last year and despite a solid enough win last week, it's looking like it might be tough for them to make the finals at all this year. That will certainly be the case if they falter in Cairns against Gold Coast in Round 18.
The Bulldogs will be happy to be facing the Suns without their star key defender Steven May - especially considering the Dogs will be without Jake Stringer up forward. It will be interesting to see what kind of player comes in to replace Stringer. Will they go with the big Travis Cloke or perhaps someone like premiership small forward Clay Smith. Either way, they will have plenty of confidence considering the Suns haven't beaten the Dogs in three tries at Cairns. I also think the high pressure football the Dogs play (ranked 1st for tackles) will see the Suns struggle (ranked 17th for tackles). However, the three-goal line is a bit rich for a team like the Dogs who struggle to put big scores on the board. Instead I will be taking the Dogs at the margin.
Tip: Bulldogs by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.10 at CrownBet (2 units)
Note: Since publishing Gary Ablett, Steven May and Jarryd Lyons have all been withdrawn from this game and the line has moved to -24 in favour of the Bulldogs. At this stage, still happy to take the Dogs at the margin.
Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints (Saturday, July 22nd at 7:25pm AEST)
The St Kilda roller coaster continued last week as they dropped from the dizzying heights of smashing the Tigers to end up being demoralised by the Bombers last Friday night. They are now on the fringes of the top eight and face the red-hot Swans in Sydney on Saturday night.
It's hard to fathom the Swans are now in 6th position after their start to the season, but here we are heading into Round 18. They are now a legitimate chance at a top four berth if they can win games like this against fellow finals contenders. Considering their recent form - including a massive win against the Giants last week - you would have to say they deserve to be heavy favourites against the Saints this week. They also have a fantastic record against St Kilda, winning the last seven including the last five by an average margin of 69 points. The Saints also haven't won at the SCG since 2009. The line is a relatively large 27 points, but on current form the Saints are going to find this very tough. Everything is gelling at the Swans at the moment and there is no reason to think that won't continue.
Tip: Sydney at the line (-27.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks (Saturday, July 22nd at 5:40pm AWST)
Despite periods of poor form and injury woes, the Hawks have been respectable of late, drawing with the Giants a fortnight ago and almost bagging a win over the Cats last week. They will have plenty of confidence heading into Round 18 against the Dockers.
The bookies have this game as a relative coin flip, but I think the Hawks deserve to be slight favourites. The game is at Domain, but Fremantle looked woeful against the Eagles last week and not much better against North Melbourne the week before. They have just don't look dangerous going forward and their midfield depth is lacking if one of Nat Fyfe or Lachie Neale is off their game. They thankfully face the Hawks with some injury troubles, but I'm happy to back the Hawks in with a small play to continue their solid form and get a win.
Tip: Hawthorn to win by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.40 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Richmond Tigers vs GWS Giants (Sunday, July 23rd at 1:10pm AEST)
They might be third on the ladder, but the Giants haven't been playing the best footy of late, winning just one of the last five games. Two of those games included unprecedented back-to-back draws. They will be looking to get back in the winner's circle on Sunday afternoon against a Richmond side who is fighting for their own spot in the top four.
The Giants have the longest injury list in the competition which has really tested their depth. The injury list is still extremely long and with the important Stephen Coniglio still a week or two off, they will have to continue to field players like Tendai Mzungu who they would no doubt prefer were playing in the NEAFL. Richmond, meanwhile, haven't played great football over the last fortnight, getting smashed by the Saints before managing an unconvincing win over the lowly Lions. It's arguably that the Tigers might be struggling in this second half of the season If it wasn't for our 2017 Brownlow Medal predicted leader Dustin Martin. The last time these two teams met was in Round 9 with the Giants managing a last-minute 3-point win. That game was at Spotless, while this one is at the MCG where the Giants haven't played since Round 1 of last year. I think the Giants should win this one, but I'm liking the look of either team to keep this close. This is a blockbuster in it's truest sense and while I rate the Giants as a better team, with their current injury woes, I can't see them being able to blow this out at the MCG, while the Tigers are certainly a chance. Taking either team to keep this one close.
Tip: Either Team by 24 Points or Less - $1.72 at Sportsbet (2.5 units)
Collingwood Magpies vs West Coast Eagles (Sunday, July 23rd at 3:20pm AEST)
The Eagles are clinging onto eighth place at the moment and if they want to stay in the top eight they need to win games on the road like this one against the Magpies at Etihad Stadium.
The Eagles have only won three of the last eight games and we know all about their notorious record away from the west. However, they face the Magpies without their best player and skipper in Scott Pendlebury - a huge loss for a Collingwood side who have had a horrible year and need all the manpower they can get. There is no doubt the Eagles should win this game, but the question is how convincing they will be. They started the season as prolific scorers, but since then haven't been able to score more than 100 points in any of their last 10 outings. Plenty of those games were without Josh J Kennedy who will be better after having a couple more games under his belt, but it's not the best sign for a team that has previously relied on a potent forward line. Fortunately, they only have to cover a small line for us to score a winner here. Jumping on the Eagles to cover the line.
Tip: Eagles at the line (-7.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes (2.5 units)
Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues (Sunday, July 23rd at 4:40pm AEST)
If ever a weekend of footy was to conclude with a 'dead rubber' game, it's this Round 18 clash between the Lions and Blues on Sunday afternoon. The only positive may end up being that both sides are desperate for a rare win that we are treated to a cracker of a game.
This is a battle between two of the lowest scoring teams in the comp with the Lions averaging 82 points per game and the Blues averaging a damning 72. Even more disappointing for the Blues is that they haven’t scored over 100 points on any occasion this season. That's a damning stat and no surprise the Blues have won only five games this season. However, the Blues have relatively excelled in the defence department, conceding just 88 points per game. This is compared to the Lions who have conceded a staggering average of 119 points per game! Both teams have talented young players mixed in with a few elite experienced players, but you have to give Carlton the edge here. They can hold even the best teams to respectable totals, so should have no troubles keeping a struggling Lions from scoring a winning total. I will be fading the line, however, and taking the margin considering the game is at the Gabba and the Blues inability to score big totals themselves.
Tip: Carlton by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet (1.5 units)
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