The first week back from the byes saw my AFL betting tips go 6/9 including my best bet. In the end it was a total profit of +5.64 units which well and truly puts the 2017 season back on track after a tough start. Hopefully can add to that tally with more winners in my 2017 AFL Round 15 preview and betting tips.
2017 AFL Round 15 Betting Tips
Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans (Friday, June 30th at 7:50pm AEST)
Round 15 kicks off at the MCG on Friday night with the Demons hosting the Swans in a massive game that has top 8 implications.
How quickly things change in footy. The Swans were 0-6 after six rounds and it was looking like last year's grand finalists had taken a massive fall from grace. Cut to last Friday night and the Swans managed their sixth win of the season which saw them sneak into the eight - albeit only for a few days as wins from the Dogs and Saints ultimately pushed them out to 10th. Regardless, they have all the momentum and now have a sniff of the finals, but it's not going to be easy with just two games separating 7th from 15th at the moment. Melbourne, meanwhile, are a game clear of that aforementioned pack in 5th place. They are looking like a legitimate top four threat following their rousing victory against the Eagles at Domain last week and will have plenty of confidence going into a Friday night home game. This is going to be an interesting match-up, with the Demons currently playing a fast-paced attacking style that has seen them average just under 110 points over the last four games. During that same period Sydney have averaged just 82 points, but have been stingier in points allowed per game. I do think the Swans lack some firepower up forward, with Sam Reid the only current true backup to share the burden with Lance Franklin. I think Melbourne can quell Franklin's influence and get close to breaking even in the midfield battle - or perhaps win it considering Max Gawn is now back in the side and Sydney lack an elite ruckman. Just a small play, but think Melbourne continue the momentum and win this at the MCG.
Tip: Melbourne by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.40 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Western Bulldogs vs West Coast Eagles (Saturday, July 1st at 1:45pm AEST)
The Round 15 opener between the Demons and Swans isn't the only game to have finals implications this week as the Bulldogs and Eagles will fight to move to eight wins and a likely spot in the top eight heading into next week.
There have been plenty of roller coaster teams this season, but perhaps none have been more inconsistent than the Bulldogs and Eagles. The Bulldogs were lucky to improve on a horrible two weeks with a victory over the Kangaroos last week, but the critics weren't exactly silenced in what wasn't exactly a convincing win. The Eagles, meanwhile, need to win every game they can at Domain considering their poor road form, but a disappointing 3-point loss to the Demons means they now need to catch up with some road wins such as this Round 15 game against the Bulldogs. The problem is they look nowhere near as good without Josh J Kennedy in the side and it's looking likely he will be out for at least one more week. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, have played their best footy at Etihad, winning 5 of 6 and averaging a massive 20 points more per game. Happy to have a small play on the Dogs - with the caveat that Josh J Kennedy remains out. Not only is he arguably the most important cog in the West Coast wheel, he also has a history of kicking a lot of goals against the Dogs.
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.10 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Carlton Blues vs Adelaide Crows (Saturday, July 1st at 2:10pm AEST)
The Crows suffered a shock loss to the Hawks at Adelaide Oval last week, but they will be hoping to get their season back on track and solidify their place in the top four against the Blues this Saturday afternoon at the MCG.
Even in their losses, the Blues play solid enough football to show fans their future potential, but it's a long season for a young team and there are going to be plenty of games that are just too tough and this Round 15 clash against the Crows likely one of them. You can't write the Blues off completely in any game after they overcame the Giants in Round 12, but they did look a little tired against the Tigers last week. Despite being one of the better defensive teams going around at the moment, the Blues are going to find it tough against the elite Adelaide forward line. They were outcoached by the Hawks last week and didn't bring the intensity they usually do, but you have to think they will bounce back. The last time the two teams met at the MCG was in Round 16 of last year with the Crows winning by 60 points. While I don't think the margin will be so large this time, I don't mind a small play on the Crows to cover the line.
Tip: Adelaide at the line (-23.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne (Saturday, July 1st at 4:35pm AEST)
The Roos head to the Gold Coast to take on the Suns on Saturday afternoon in what is probably one of the only 'dead rubber' games of Round 15.
North Melbourne suffered another loss last week, but once again they were competitive and arguably unlucky to not score a victory. They will like their chances against the Suns this week, but I don't think this is going to be an easy win. The Suns kept it close for a majority of their game against the Saints last week in spite of missing a large portion of their best players including midfield pillars Gary Ablett and Aaron Hall. The inclusion of these two guys will be an important aspect in regard to their chances against North Melbourne. The Suns have the pace and better depth in the midfield than the Roos, but they are obviously far more dangerous with Ablett and Hall in the team. There is also some early doubt around Pearce Hanley and Touk Miller. Thinking the Suns are value here depending on their ins and outs, so will have to wait until later in the week to make a call.
Tip: Gold Coast by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.30 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Note: Tip as above after the inclusion of Gary Ablett and Touk Miller and Pearce Hanley being named. Aaron Hall the only key player not to be named.
GWS Giants vs Geelong Cats (Saturday, July 1st at 7:25pm AEST)
One of the most talked about games of the week will no doubt be when the 3rd-placed Cats head to Sydney to take on the ladder-leading Giants.
Despite being on top of the ladder, the Giants looked like they needed the bye after a disappointing 1-point loss to the Blues in Round 12. They still haven't got a full healthy list, but they looked like they were closer to their devastating best last week, smashing the Lions by 10 goals - all without star player Josh Kelly. He will be back in the side this week, while Rory Lobb is also looking like he's ready to get back on the park. On paper, the Cats 2-point win against the Dockers at Simonds Stadium last week probably doesn't seem too impressive, but they ended up being 3 players down (including Joel Selwood out from less than 10 seconds into the game) and still managed a brave victory. They will dust themselves off and hope to be back to their best against the Giants on Saturday night, but no doubt some of the patches of footy they played last week will be concerning. They will be competitive this week in a game with plenty to prove, but I think the Giants are just a class above. They have been known to come out and not play at their intense best, but they should realise the significance of this massive game. A few key ins should be enough for the Giants to win this one at home.
Tip: GWS Giants by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.12 at Ladbrokes (1.5 units)
Port Adelaide Power vs Richmond Tigers (Saturday, July 1st at 7:10pm ACST)
Richmond and Port Adelaide both get a chance to add to their premiership credentials on Saturday night as a fiery clash at Adelaide Oval should be one of the best games of the weekend.
Port Adelaide are arguably a little over-rated so far this season. Yes, they are sitting 4th on the ladder and once again looked good a win at the MCG over Collingwood last week, but they have lost all four of their games against top 8 sides so far. They need to start winning games against better competition and that's what they should be able to do at Adelaide Oval against Richmond this week. The most interesting aspect of this game is the fact that these two teams feature the stingiest defences in the competition with the Tigers allowing just 78 points per game, just behind the Power's 77 points per game. Richmond will have a tough time containing both Charlie Dixon and the in-form Robbie Gray who has been dominating his new role in the forward line, while Bachar Houli being out on suspension will take away some of their rebounding firepower. Should be another great Round 15 game and while I think Port Adelaide will win at home, the line is a little high for me. Will be taking Port at the margin.
Tip: Port Adelaide by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.08 at Ladbrokes (1 unit)
Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions (Sunday, July 2nd at 1:10pm AEST)
The Lions face the Bombers this week and with another likely loss, the wooden spoon is drawing closer every week. The Bombers, meanwhile, are one of the several teams fighting for the lower spots in the top 8 so they simply can't afford to lose games like this.
Critics were out in full force for the Bombers this week after they gave up what looked like an unbeatable 19-point lead in the late stages of their game against the Swans. They will have to put that behind them quickly and score a convincing win at Etihad against the Lions. They should be able to managed that considering the Lions will be without one of their most important players Dayne Beams. He had 33 disposals and kicked two goals against the Bombers back in Round 2 and will be sorely missed. The Bombers won that game by 27 points at the Gabba and really you would think they should be able to do far better than that in Melbourne. The Lions continue to concede big scores and the Bombers have enough firepower to win this by a big margin. Small play at the line.
Tip: Essendon at the line (-43.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes (1 unit)
Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies (Sunday, July 2nd at 3:20pm AEST)
Both the Hawks and Magpies head into Round 15 on five wins and the loser of this will have to concede that the finals are simply out of reach - if they aren’t already. There should be a massive MCG crowd on Sunday afternoon for this one.
It was only six weeks ago the Hawks and Magpies met with Collingwood winning by 18 points in what seemed to be a 'turning point' for the Pies at the time. Things haven't gone exactly as Collingwood planned since then and they really did look exposed against Port Adelaide last week. They looked one-paced and only had one gear which can either come down to lack of ability or we can blame the coach. The Hawks, meanwhile, can arguably give credit to their coach for a rousing underdog victory against Adelaide last week. They had the perfect answer for Adelaide's playing style and after a beating a side like that at Adelaide Oval you have to think the Hawks can beat anyone on their day. This is still a team that lost to Gold Coast at the MCG a fortnight ago, however, and that's why the Magpies are still favourites to win. I hate to be too reactive to last week, but clearly the Hawks will take confidence from that win and I think they can get up for a big game in front a of a big crowd against a Collingwood side who aren't in good form at the moment.
Tip: Hawthorn by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.55 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Fremantle Dockers vs St Kilda Saints (Sunday, July 2nd at 2:40pm AWST)
Round 15 concludes on Sunday afternoon in the west with the Saints travelling to Domain Stadium to take on the Dockers.
This is yet another game which has finals implications as the Saints sit in 8th on 7-6, while the Dockers are one game out in 12th on 6-7. Getting wins on the board is even more important for the low-scoring Dockers as their percentage means they will likely have to be a game clear of those below them to make the top 8. The Dockers will think they are a good chance to win this against a St Kilda who is getting wins, but not really playing their best football. The Saints also have a horrible interstate record, losing 11 of their last 12. The Dockers played passages of great football in Geelong last week, but ultimately stumbled at the line. The Dockers should win this at home - especially if Michael Walters and Brad Hill can continue their recent form, while Nat Fyfe and Aaron Sandilands come back into the side and make an impact. Their low scoring ways means if we are backing the Dockers, we are happy to take the extra value with the margin.
Tip: Fremantle by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.35 at CrownBet (1.5 units)
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