After bagging some solid winners over the weekend, unfortunately Round 20 ended up as a small loss. With only three weeks remaining in the 2016 AFL season, I’m hoping to finish up the year with three profitable weeks, so don't miss my 2016 AFL Round 21 betting tips.
AFL Round 21 Betting Tips
Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Magpies (Friday, August 12 at 7:50pm AEST)
It's not often the Western Bulldogs get to play the big stage of Friday night footy, but that's what they face in Round 21 against the Magpies.
The Bulldogs locked up a spot in the finals with their win over North Melbourne last week, but they are still having real problems with scoring. They rebound and get the ball inside 50 like the best teams in the comp, but convert those opportunities to goals like the worst. Coach Luke Beveridge needs to use the three remaining weeks to get his team scoring, but needs to balance that with continuing to be one of the best defensive teams. The Pies, meanwhile, have been extremely inconsistent this year, but have shown patches of elite footy. Last Friday against Richmond, however, was one of Collingwood's worst performances this year. If they play like they did in the second half this week, it will be an almost certain win for the Dogs.
The last time these two teams met was in Round 10 of this year with the Dogs winning by 21 points. That scoreline, however, wasn't reflective of Collingwood's performance that night as they led at every quarter break before fading. That was the third in a row against the Pies for the Bulldogs and they are eying off four after the Pies had won the previous six. The Dogs in a competitive game looks like the play here. It isn't likely they can turn their scoring woes around in one week, but with their defensive ability coupled with Collingwood's own problems with scoring (they are ranked 13th), you would think the Dogs win this by a slight margin.
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.10 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues (Saturday, August 12 at 1:45pm AEST)
Both the Lions and Blues would sigh in relief at the prospect of playing some easier competition in Round 21. In saying that, even the most confident Brisbane supporter wouldn't be thinking this is an easy game - even if it is at the Gabba.
The Lions lost their last two games by a combined 202 points against Port and the Crows, so surely they will come into this game wanting to shore up their defensive efforts. Amazingly, they concede 20 points more per game than even Essendon. The Blues aren't prolific scorers, but this is their chance to go for the throat. They have lost eight in a row and certainly need to take this opportunity to finish the season on a high note. I think the Blues win, but because this game is at the Gabba, I'm not excited about a 3-goal line. The Lions have played their best football at their home ground and should at least be somewhat competitive.
Tip: Carlton by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.15 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Hawthorn Hawks vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (Saturday, August 12 at 2:10pm AEST)
The last time the Hawks and Roos played was in Round 13 of this season and the Roos dominated almost every aspect of the game. They took the ball inside 50 seven more times and had six more scoring shots. But they didn't win. The Roos were playing much better back then aswell, so I'm not sure they would rate their chances going into Round 21.
The Roos travel to the MCG for the first time this season, which will be somewhat of a test for them. We often talk about the Saints and Bulldogs much preferring Etihad, but the same can be said for North Melbourne. The Hawks, meanwhile, love the MCG and haven't lost two in a row at the 'G since 2010. No doubt the Roos will take a close look at the Dees win over the Hawks last week, but ultimately you have to think the Hawks will bounce back strongly. It's looking like Ben Brown and Scott Thompson will be on the sidelines this week which is a huge loss at either end of the ground. Thompson is key to North's ability to stop scoring, and without Jarrad Waite and Brown in the team, the Roos have to rely on the aging and out of form Drew Petrie up forward. Too many injury woes, no form and having to face the Hawks at the G.
Tip: Hawthorn at the line (-20.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
GWS Giants vs West Coast Eagles (Saturday, August 13 at 4:35pm AEST)
The Giants clash with the Eagles on Saturday afternoon will play a big role in shaping the top eight - GWS need every win they can get to stay in the top four, while if the Eagles win games like this, they are a chance to slip into the top four themselves.
It seems simple to say, but the biggest factor in this game is Spotless Stadium. We know the Eagles have struggled away from Domain and the Giants simply play their best football at home. The Giant midfield will also worry the Eagles. GWS simply have 5-6, quick, damaging players, whereas the Eagles only have a couple of that ilk. While I think the Giants will win this one, I do think the four-plus goal line is a little rich. There were signs that the young Giants are getting tired in tough win against the Suns last week and while the Eagles haven't been able to win on the road, they have lost four away games by less than 20 points. If the Eagles want to make 2016 count, they need to stand up in games like this. Thinking this will be a competitive game with the Giants ultimately having too much class.
Tip: GWS Giants by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
St Kilda Saints vs Sydney Swans (Saturday, August 13 at 7:25pm AEST)
One of the more interesting games of Round 21 is when the Swans travel down to Etihad Stadium to take on the Swans. If the Saints win this game they become a legitimate chance to make the top eight, while a top two finish is on the line for the Swans. The Saints do need North to lose earlier on Saturday, and if that happens, you can be certain the Saints will come out firing for this one.
It's hard not to get excited about the Saints. They have won four of the last five and have played some extremely solid football. Their big test on Saturday night will be taking on the Swans midfield. While Jack Steven is a beast, the Swans have 3-4 players of similar ilk. Tom Hickey in the ruck could be the difference for the Saints as the Swans certainly don't have the best big men in the comp. The Saints will have to play their best footy to win this game, but considering their form at Etihad (they have won eight in a row at the venue), the 27-point line looks generous. Will also be having a small play on the Saints to win at big odds.
Tip: St Kilda at the line (+27.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1.5 units)
+ Saints by 1-39 points - $4.60 at CrownBet (0.5 units)
Port Adelaide Power vs Melbourne Demons (Saturday, August 13 at 7:10pm ACST)
Port Adelaide have perhaps been the most inconsistent team in the comp this year. They show flashes of brilliance, followed by shocking, uncompetitive football. They managed only 33 points against in their 67-point loss to the Swans last week and it will be interesting to see how they respond in front of a home crows against the Demons on Saturday night.
The hype train was well and truly chugging along after the Demons managed to defeat the top of the ladder Hawks last week. It was a great win in what been a much-improved year for the Dees, but they now have to focus on playing that sort of footy every week. If Max Gawn can put up the sort of performance we are used to, the Demons are a real chance against a ruck-less Port. Jack Viney has become one of the best midfielders in the comp and Port will need Robby Gray and Ollie Wines to fire up if they are going to win the contest in the middle. I really think there is some value in the Demons at $2.80 to win, but with the game at Adelaide Oval and not knowing which Port Adelaide will show up, safer to sit this one out.
Tip: No Bet.
Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast Suns (Sunday, August 14 at 1:10pm AEST)
Despite only managing six wins so far this season, the Gold Coast Suns are showing signs that there is a bright future. Big Tom Lynch is shaping up to be the best key forward in the comp and will no doubt cause the Bombers plenty of headaches this Sunday at Etihad.
The AFL website discussed this week that the first time the Bombers hosted the Suns at Etihad they scored 197 points and absolutely smashed the then new club. Oh, how times have changed. It's actually surprising to see the Suns are such small favourites. Even though they have a huge amounts of injuries - especially in the midfield - they still have many more weapons than Essendon. Steven May is one of the in-form defenders in the comp and should be able to stop Joe Daniher from having an impact, while up the other end you have to expect Lynch to have a field day. He was equal in the Coleman Medal race before Josh J Kennedy kicked a bag last Sunday and could get back into the hunt this weekend. Like the look of the Suns to cover.
Tip: Gold Coast at the line (-21.5) - $1.91 at William Hill (2 units)
Richmond Tigers vs Geelong Cats (Sunday, August 14 at 3:20pm AEST)
How excited were the Tigers when they defeated Collingwood last Friday night? They clearly desperately needed a win after a tumultuous few weeks of media scrutiny. Unfortunately, however, it's likely going to be back to earth for the Tigers as they take on the Cats in Round 21.
The Cats have a tremendous record against the Tigers, winning the last 11, including the last seven straight at the MCG. The Tigers are going to find it extremely tough to break that streak this Sunday. They are the 14th worst scoring side in the league compared to Geelong ranked 4th, while they are also taking on the strongest team for marks inside 50. Prior to their effort against the Pies, Richmond were really struggling to score and were losing games by huge margins. I think that is closer to the Richmond we will see this weekend. I'm not overly excited by a relatively large line, but will be making a small play on Geelong.
Tip: Geelong at the line (-31.5) $1.92 at CrownBet (0.5 units)
Fremantle Dockers vs Adelaide Crows (Sunday, August 14th at 2:40pm AEST)
The Crows are charging towards September on the back of some great form and will very likely keep their spot in the top four with another win this weekend against Fremantle.
You know the Dockers are in bad form when they are 43-point underdogs at Domain Stadium. That line is probably just about right. The Crows are the number one centre clearance side in the comp, while the Dockers struggle in 14th. They just don't have the man-power in the middle at the moment and will struggle against the Crouch brothers and 2016 Brownlow Medal hope Rory Sloane. There are lots of reasons to think the Crows could win this by a big margin, but at Domain the line just looks too big. Opting to sit this one out.
Tip: No Bet.
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