It was a roller coaster for my AFL betting tips last week with a strong start, a big slump and then a strong finish picking the Lions at big odds on Sunday afternoon. Ultimately Round 18 ended up in a very small profit which was disappointing considering I managed winners at $3.50 and $2.75. All I can do now is look forward to this weekend as I offer my 2016 AFL Round 19 betting tips.
AFL Round 19 Betting Tips
Geelong Cats vs Western Bulldogs (Friday, July 29 at 7:50pm AEST)
The Round 19 opener down at Simonds Stadium is one of the most interesting games of the week with the Cats and Bulldogs both jostling for position in the top eight. It's also a special night for two Geelong champions as Jimmy Bartel plays his 300th game and Corey Enright breaks the club's all-time games record.
All the talk in the lead up to this game is the chaos out in the west with long-term injuries to Jack Redpath and Mitch Wallis in their loss to St Kilda last week. That's two massive outs added to an already long injury list and how the Dogs manage to cover these losses will be interesting. Fortunately, they get Jake Stringer back this week and Luke Dahlhaus also looks like a possibility. Unfortunately, these returns probably won't be enough to get a much-needed win against Geelong on Friday night.
The Dogs have lost the last six against the Cats - including two at Simonds Stadium. One of those games was at Etihad back in Round 13 of this season with the Dogs getting smashed by 57 points in a game that saw Patrick Dangerfield dominate. That was the Dogs worst performance of the season and I'm fairly confident they can be more competitive this time around. They match the Cats in most key stat areas and will do everything they can to ensure they don't lose what will be very important percentage points come the end of the season. The devastating injury to Mitch Wallis should galvanise the group and while the Cats will likely be too classy, I think this will be a classic Friday night contest.
Tip: Geelong by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.05 at Ladbrokes (1 unit)
Note: Matthew Boyd and Matthew Suckling were announced as also not playing. Even more confident on Geelong victory, but the 1-39 perhaps a danger. Think it should still be a competitive game, will stick with my pick.
GWS Giants vs Richmond Tigers (Saturday, July 30 at 1:45pm AEST)
The Giants continue their quest for a top four finish this week, while their opponent the Tigers are probably just wishing the 2016 AFL season would end soon rather than later. There's a reason the Giants are $1.10 favourites for this one and the Tigers wouldn't be excited at the prospect of having to take them on at Manuka Oval on Saturday.
I think we learnt a lot about the Giants last week. It was such an important game to win and would have been a huge confidence booster to get the job done against a talented Port Adelaide side at Adelaide Oval - especially considering they were trailing at home time. Now they just need to keep playing that sort of football and they are a real September threat. They certainly can't lose games like this one and I don't think they will. The Giants are currently the highest scoring side in the comp, while Richmond are struggling in this department, averaging just over 80 points per game. The Tigers only put 44 points on the board against the Hawks last week and if they have any pride they will put in a bigger effort this week in Canberra. This is one of those games were I am certain of the winner, but not confident with the margin. The 40-point line looks just about right and I'm struggling to lean either way. What I don't mind the look of is the total game score going under 184. Richmond have shown us they are struggling to score and after last week's effort against the Hawks, they should be focusing a lot on their defensive efforts. For at least half of last week's game they did stop the Hawks from scoring, but just let the floodgates open in the second half. They shouldn't let that happen again. Just a small play on this one.
Tip: Total Game Score UNDER 184.5 - $1.90 at Sportsbet (0.5 units)
Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues (Saturday, July 30 at 2:10pm AEST)
Carlton have the displeasure of being the final team of 2016 to take on Hawthorn in their Tasmanian fortress. It's very likely this will be the 19th consecutive win for the Hawks at Aurora Stadium.
The Hawks are already two games clear on the top of the ladder, but these sorts of games are needed to build their percentage. There are five teams with a higher percentage than the Hawks at the moment and if they want to cement their place in the top two it might end up coming down to percentage. The Hawks currently have the fourth highest average score per game, while the Blues are 17th in this department, averaging just 71 points per game. While I like the Hawks to win by a significant margin, I'm staying away from betting this game. Both the Blues and Hawks can be unpredictable this season and I wouldn't be surprised is this was a close game or a blow out. Safer to fade this one.
Tip: No Bet.
Collingwood Magpies vs West Coast Eagles (Saturday, July 30 at 4:35pm AEST)
The Eagles are currently 5th on the ladder, but at times have played lie a bottom four side. They can't afford to drop games like this one against Collingwood on Saturday afternoon.
At times this season the Eagles have looked unbeatable at Domain, but last week they almost lost to the Demons. There are cracks in the way they play football and by no means is this game at the MCG going to be easy for them. Interestingly, they haven't beaten the Pies at the MCG since 2005, but have won the last three contests - two at Domain and one at Etihad. The Eagles got the monkey off their back a fortnight ago against the Blues, winning their first game at the MCG this season. I think they can get another win this weekend as long as they respond strongly to last week's poor performance. The Eagles are better in front of goal, better in clearances and hitouts and I think they matchup well against the Pies. Should be a competitive game, but getting on the Eagles.
Tip: West Coast by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.25 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide Power (Saturday, July 30 at 7:25pm AEST)
The Brisbane Lions head into Round 19 on the back of a rare win. But let's not get too excited and remember the win was only against Essendon. They should be brought back to earth on Saturday night against Port Adelaide.
It's hard to know what sort of football Port Adelaide will play in the last few weeks of the season. They can still mathematically make the finals, but they really needed to get a win at Adelaide Oval against the Giants last week. They were solid in that game, but the Giants were just too classy. The question around this game is what sort of margin are Port going to win by? When the two teams met earlier this season at Adelaide Oval the Power won by 77 points. I think the Lions will take some confidence from their win last week and be far more competitive this time around. I actually lean towards them being able to cover a 6+ goal line, but with not enough confidence to offer an official pick. Another one to fade.
Tip: No Bet.
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs St Kilda Saints (Saturday, July 30 at 7:25pm AEST)
The only game that rivals the Friday night game between the Dogs and Cats for interest is when the Kangaroos take on the Saints on Saturday night. This really could determine if the Saints make the finals and if the Roos will disappointingly miss out - an 'eight premiership point' game as they say.
The Roos have more to play for than premiership points here with a big build up and celebration of champion Brent Harvey breaking the all-time games record. Hopefully they stay focused enough around the hullaballoo to play their best footy because this will not be an easy win. The Saints have played some excellent footy of late - none better than their victory over the Bulldogs last week. Tom Hickey and Jack Steven are the in-form ruck-mid combo in the competition and will really worry the one-pace midfield of the Roos. Todd Goldstein is clearly nursing an injury and this will be his biggest test in quite a while. Jarrad Waite, meanwhile, will be a huge addition to the North Melbourne lineup. This should be a fiercely competitive game and I will be betting on it to be close either way.
Tip: Either Team by UNDER 24.5 points - $1.83 at Sportsbet (1.5 units)
Melbourne Demons vs Gold Coast Suns (Sunday, July 31 at 1:10pm AEST)
The Demons should be coming into this game having defeated West Coast at Domain. They won all the major key stats and simply played better football. However, poor accuracy in front of goal and a bit of misfortune meant they lost the game. They should still take confidence out of their performance and get back in the winner's circle against Gold Coast on Sunday.
These two teams met back in Round 7 at Metricon with the Demons getting a massive win by 73 points. The Suns were at their worse in those early stages of the season, so I don't think the margin will be that large again, but I don't like their chances of an upset here - espeically at the MCG. Contested footy is where the Demons dominate the Suns - they are ranked 4th in the comp, while the Suns are down in 17th. The Demons also dominate the Suns in centre clearances and no doubt this will be where the game is won. Max Gawn, Jack Viney, Nathan Jones and co should dominate the inexperienced and undermanned Gold Coast midfield. I do think, however, the Suns will be able to keep the game close because of their powerful forward line led by Tom Lynch. The Demons haven't been able to put big scores on the board in the last several weeks, averaging just 70 points, and while their contested style of football should stop the Suns from scoring like they usually do, I think the Suns can be competitive in this game. Melbourne are also coming off a tough trip out west and will be weary. The Suns have won three of their last five and while I'm not convinced they area big chance to win this game, the 5-goal line just looks like too good value to pass up.
Tip: Gold Coast at the line (+31.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans (Sunday, July 31 at 1:20pm AEST)
Docker Matthew Pavlich plays his 350th game this week and unfortunately it's going to be yet another loss for what has been a disappointing final year for the champion forward. The Swans, meanwhile, will be looking to get their first win against the Dockers at Domain Stadium since 2010.
While I think the Swans will win this game, the Dockers have been significantly more competitive at their home ground this season than anywhere else. They got two of their wins at Domain and have been competitive against quality opposition at the ground, like a fortnight ago when they lost to the Cats by just 17 points. The 30-point line is just too rich and I like the look of the Swans under 39.5. The Swans don't concede a lot of points, but they also haven't been dangerous enough in attack during this second half of the season, having not scored 100 points or more since Round 8. Thinking the Dockers will play with a bit of pride for their greatest player of all time in Matthew Pavlich and keep it relatively close.
Tip: Sydney by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.10 at Ladbrokes (1 unit)
Adelaide Crows vs Essendon Bombers (Sunday, July 31 at 4:10pm AEST)
Luckily the rest of the round has some cracking games because the curtain closer is a stinker with the Bombers heading to Adelaide Oval in the face of certain defeat against the Crows.
The Crows were on an eight-game winning streak before their loss to the Cats last week. I thought they were a good chance to get their ninth in a row, but ultimately the Cats were too classy at Simonds Stadium. If they lost any confidence in that game they will surely gain it back against Essendon in Round 19. It comes down to this - the Crows are the equal best centre clearance team in the comp and 2nd for average points per game. They are very likely to demolish the Bombers and that's why the line is 10+ goals. Lean towards the Crows covering, but not brave enough to touch this.
Tip: No Bet.
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