Somehow we have already made it through 11 weeks of NFL betting tips and to be honest it has been a tough year focussing on the Australian televised games. There are still a few weeks to turn it around, however, so read on for our NFL Week 12 betting tips.
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Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys – Friday, November 27 at 8:30am AEST
We take a look at the second game on the thanksgiving Thursday night card. The undefeated Panthers travel into Texas to take on the “flavour of the week” team the Dallas Cowboys. Tony Romo is back and I guess that’s enough for even the sportsbooks to lose their mind. I really don’t understand why Dallas is a two point favourite, even at home.
My theory is because its thanksgiving and Dallas is such a widely followed team the sportsbooks have to adjust. I am not saying this game will be a one sided affair (although it could be) I just feel as though the wrong team is favoured here.
The proof is in the pudding.
It looks like the Carolina Panthers will have to earn respect the hard way. Even though they are undefeated and also a covering machine, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven games the Panthers are still very much undervalued. The Panthers have one of the best rushing offenses averaging 139.9 yards (4th) and certainly one of the best defenses in the league ranking in the top 10 in almost every category. Meanwhile Dallas is just finding its feet. I think Carolina will win this game by a field goal.
Tip: Carolina Panthers at the line (+2.0) - $1.92 at CrownBet
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers – Friday, November 27 at 12:30pm AEST
The Thursday night game should also be very exciting as the Green Bay Packers host NFC North rivals the Chicago Bears. The sportsbooks opened this line at -7.0 (GB) and after Green Bay took care of Minnesota with ease the line is now up to -9.0 at some books.
I believe this could be a small letdown spot for Green Bay who have not been as dominant as I expected this season. In saying that Aaron Rodgers is always better Lambeau Field, but he will have to face a very good passing defense. Chicago allows just 217.2 yards in the air ranked (4th).
The two biggest factors that are making me sway towards Chicago +8.5 is the return of star running back Matt Forte and receiver Alshon Jeffery. They are a different team with Forte. They are also a different team on the road. The Bears hold a 3-2 winning record on the road as opposed to a 1-4 losing record when they play at home. I believe Green Bay wins but Chicago covers. Thinking GB 27 CHI 21.
Tip: Chicago Bears at the line (+8.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos – Monday, November 30 at 12:30pm AEST
Sunday night football will be the game of the week but if you tune in don’t expect a high scoring shootout like we have seen in the past between these clubs. The 10-0 Patriots travel to the high altitudes at Mile High Stadium to battle a “Manning-less” Denver Broncos.
Replacing Peyton Manning is Brock Osweiler and this is a good thing for Denver. Brock is 6’8” from Arizona State and the good thing about this replacement is the fact he has had time to sit behind a legend and develop. A formula that I think more teams will now adopt. Instead of drafting a kid in the first round and expecting him to be ready made. Brock looked great in his first game throwing for 396yards with 3 TD’s. However today he will face Bill Bellicheck’s number 1 ranked defense and I imagine there will be a whole lot more pass rushing then Brock saw last week.
Defense!! .. Defense!!
Denver is ranked 1 in total yards allowed at 284.3. Patriots are ranked number 1 in points allowed at 18.2. Denver has the best pass defense allowing just 190.6 yards. Patriots have the number 2 run defense allowing just 88.8 yards. This is the most exciting defensive matchup we have seen. Add in Tom Brady and a young talented QB trying to prove himself (Brock) and we should get our money’s worth. This is a game that should come down to field position and field goals and in that case give me the always clutch kicker Stephen Gostkowski of the Patriots. I am betting the total game score and leaning Patriots head-to-head.
Tip: Patriots / Broncos Total Game Score UNDER 43.0 - $1.96 at Sportsbet
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns – Tuesday, December 1 at 12:30pm AEST
This game is going to be hard to watch. The Baltimore Ravens head into Cleveland with more injuries at key positions than ever before. Losing their leader and quarterback Joe Flacco along with leading running back Justin Forsett and wide receiver Steve Smith Sr. Meanwhile Cleveland has had to deal with quarterback Johnny Manziel’s latest antics as he was relegated to third string and his future up in the air.
So how can we turn watching this game into a positive?
With so many 2nd rate players at key Offensive positions including a 34 year old veteran quarterback that hasn’t played since 2013 and the fact that these teams are just lacking talent. The smart money in my opinion is on the UNDER. This game should play out a lot like last week’s Thursday night game (Tennessee at Jacksonville) 32 total points were scored that night and I expect a similar outcome here.
That way we can cheer for fumbles, missed field goals and any other “Benny Hill” moments these teams will no doubt put on display.
Tip: Ravens / Browns Total Game Score UNDER 41.0 - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
