2014 Cox Plate Preview, Tips and Best Promos

2014 WS Cox Plate

When: Saturday afternoon, 5:40pm
Where: Moonee Valley Race 8

What an exciting race the Manikato turned out to be on Friday night! Our top pick of Buffering should’ve taken up the lead and would’ve been right in contention there at the end but Lankan Rupee was too quick out of the blocks. Buffering lost by a head yet finished 7^th, such was the craziness of the finish. Our second pick of Lankan Rupee was a saver, and our value picks of Famous Shamus (3^rd) and Rebel Dane (4^th) were right in the photo. It was a case of so close, yet so far.

The rail was hot with the leaders dominating, so keep that in mind for your betting on Cox Plate Day. It will be interesting to see how the track holds up by the time the Cox Plate rolls around in Race 8.

The WS Cox Plate is one of the best races in the country and considered the weight-for-age championships of Australia. Last year, Shamus Award created history by pinching victory as a maiden. Will this year throw up another surprise?

It’s a cracking race and a really hard one to pick.

First let’s start with The Cleaner ($21 at BetEasy). Where else could you start? It has drawn the outside gate but that won’t stop him from bouncing out of the blocks, where he will shoot straight to the lead and try to burn the field. The way the track played on Friday night where it was leader-dominated, his chances have definitely improved if the rail continues to hold. The first Tasmanian trained horse in the Cox Plate, he’s capturing the hearts of the public and if he salutes, things might get a little crazy. He would be a hugely popular winner, and we would be thrilled.

While The Cleaner will definitely set a tempo that may upset the apple cart a little, there’s so much class in this field that The Cleaner will have to sustain wave upon wave of pressure. The Lion of Longford is tough, but we feel there’s too much class to overcome here. Definitely a chance, and if it turns in front at the bend, listen for the roar of the fans! A good place chance at each-way odds.

At the top of the odds is Fawkner ($4.60 at Ladbrokes), an impressive last-start winner in the Caulfield Stakes. The preparation has been near faultless and he has been set for this very race. Has a perfect barrier to take a sit and is happy at the Valley. Definitely the one to beat. The question might be who will be the one to set out after The Cleaner, and it might be left to Fawkner which could open the doors for other swoopers to come over the top.

One of those is Criterion ($7.50 at Ladbrokes) who almost did exactly that in the Caulfield Stakes, going down by a head to Fawkner after flying home late with the best closing 200m sectional of the race. The tempo of this race looks set to play into the hands of horses like Criterion who will be able to swallow them up if there’s too much pressure out front with The Cleaner. Criterion has drawn well in Barrier 6, is weighted well and looks to be peaking nicely for this race.

One in a similar category is Sacred Falls ($8.60 at Betfair). A proven Group 1 winner on four occasions, he will get a long way back before charging home late. We’re a big fan, but might have too much to do in the short straight of the Valley.

Others worth considering at odds include Happy Trails ($14 at Betfair) who was second in this race last year and might be ready for a big race surprise, Foreteller ($35 at Luxbet) who will also be suited by the tempo, and the lightly-weighted Almalad ($34 at Bet365) has been set for this race and is capable of getting close.

Verdict: Tough race, but feel that it’s a race between Fawkner and Criterion. The Cleaner will be extremely brave and will look the winner in the final 200m, but I see Fawkner challenging before Criterion just comes very over the top of them at the death.

1^st Criterion ($7.50 at Ladbrokes)
2^nd Fawkner ($4.60 at Ladbrokes)
3^rd The Cleaner ($21 at BetEasy)
4^th Happy Trails ($14 at Betfair)